FINN-OLAF JONES2026年8月31日周三，尼泊尔努瓦科特县德维加特地区发生灾难性山洪暴发，房屋严重损毁，部分被厚厚的泥浆和碎屑掩埋。 Atul Loke for The New York TimesOn Wednesday morning, part of a glacier and the mountainside beneath it collapsed on the north side of Langtang Lirung, a 23,734-foot peak near Nepal’s border with Tibet, setting off a 60-mile flood of water, mud and debris.周三上午，朗塘里隆峰北坡的一部分冰川及其下方的山体发生坍塌。这座海拔7234米的山峰靠近尼泊尔与西藏的边境，坍塌引发了长度近100公里、混合着水、泥浆和碎石的洪水。By Friday, Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority said that 579 people had been killed. Many, many more are still missing.到周五，尼泊尔国家灾害风险减灾管理局表示已有579人遇难。仍有更多人下落不明。More than 4,000 miles west, victims of another disaster in the region were being mourned. That morning, in Dorset, England, family and friends gathered to commemorate Nirmal Purja, the celebrated Nepali mountaineer known as Nimsdai. Among them was Mingma Gyalje Sherpa, one of Nepal’s leading climbers and the founder of the expedition company Imagine Nepal. After an avalanche on Broad Peak in Pakistan’s Karakoram range killed Mr. Purja and nine other climbers on July 30, Mr. Mingma Sherpa led the expedition that recovered Mr. Purja’s body.在6500多公里以西的英国多塞特郡，人们正在哀悼该地区的另一场灾难中的遇难者。那天上午，亲友们聚集在一起，纪念尼马尔·普尔贾——一位著名的尼泊尔登山家，人们常称他为“尼姆哥”。在场的包括尼泊尔顶尖登山家之一、探险公司Imagine Nepal的创始人明马·加尔杰·夏尔巴。7月30日，巴基斯坦喀喇昆仑山脉的布洛阿特峰发生雪崩，普尔贾和其他九名登山者遇难，随后明马·夏尔巴带领探险队找到了普尔贾的遗体。在加德满都，哀悼者点燃蜡烛，纪念登山家尼马尔·普尔贾及其同伴。他们于今年7月在巴基斯坦的一场雪崩中遇难。The two disasters occurred within a month of each other on the mountainous region that extends from Pakistan through Nepal, where scientists, climbers and trekkers have witnessed accelerating losses of snow and ice.这两起灾难发生在一个月之内，地点都位于从巴基斯坦延伸至尼泊尔的山区。在那里，科学家、登山者和徒步旅行者都目睹了冰雪的加速消融。For Nepal, the consequences extend far beyond the mountains. Tourism represents 6.1 percent of the country’s economy and supported about 1.2 million jobs in 2023, roughly 15 percent of all employment, according to the World Bank.对尼泊尔而言，其影响远远超出了山区范围。根据世界银行的数据，旅游业占尼泊尔经济的6.1%，2023年支撑了约120万个就业岗位，约占全国就业总数的15%。Of the more than 1.16 million international visitors who went to Nepal in 2025, 165,056 listed trekking and mountaineering as their primary reason for visiting. The industry that has grown around them includes more than 3,000 trekking agencies and tens of thousands of registered guides, as well as expedition companies, porters, cooks, teahouses, hotels, airlines, helicopter operators and drivers.在2025年来到尼泊尔的超过116万名国际游客中，有165056人将徒步和登山列为到访的首要目的。围绕这一行业发展的相关机构包括3000多家徒步机构和数万名注册向导，此外还有探险公司、背夫、厨师、茶馆、酒店、航空公司、直升飞机运营商和司机。At the lucrative extreme is high-altitude climbing. This spring, 1,195 climbers obtained permits for 31 mountains, generating about $9 million in government royalties alone. Nearly 500 received permits for Mount Everest, where the spring permit for a foreign climber now costs $15,000.高海拔登山是利润丰厚的领域。今年春季，1195名登山者获得了31座山峰的登山许可，仅政府特许权使用费就产生了约900万美元收入。近500人获得了攀登珠穆朗玛峰的许可证，目前外国登山者春季攀登珠峰的许可证费用为15000美元。今年5月，登山者向珠穆朗玛峰攀登。 Furte Sherpa/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesOver seven years working on expeditions, Mr. Purja had become one of the world’s best-known climbers and the owner of an international expedition company, Elite Exped, with his own sports clothing line. Mr. Mingma Sherpa is part of the same generation. His company runs expeditions on Everest and other Himalayan peaks. “It’s one of the best jobs in Nepal,” he said, speaking after the Langtang Lirung flood. A successful high-altitude guide, he estimated, can make “10 times” an ordinary Nepali salary.在七年探险工作生涯中，普尔贾已成为全球最知名的登山者之一，并拥有自己的国际探险公司Elite Exped，还推出了个人运动服装系列。明马·夏尔巴和他属于同一代人。他的公司在珠穆朗玛峰和其他喜马拉雅山峰运营探险活动。“这是尼泊尔最好的工作之一，”他在朗塘里隆峰洪水发生后接受采访时说。据他估算，一名成功的高海拔向导可以赚到“普通尼泊尔人工资的10倍”。But many believe that this livelihood is threatened by global warming. Arbindra Khadka, 35, a glaciologist and research scientist at Tribhuvan University in Kathmandu, noted that Himalayan glaciers are losing about a meter (nearly 3.3 feet) of ice a year. “It’s not just Everest” that is in trouble, he said. “The entire Himalayas are melting.”但许多人认为，这种生计正受到全球变暖的威胁。35岁的加德满都特里布万大学冰川学家和研究科学家阿尔宾德拉·卡德卡指出，喜马拉雅冰川每年融化约一米的冰。“不只是珠穆朗玛峰”面临危机，他说，“整个喜马拉雅山脉都在融化。”Disappearing Snow and Ice消逝的冰雪今年5月，在昆布冰瀑进行培训。Increasingly, those in the trekking business depend on mountains that are changing beneath climbers’ feet. Tul Singh Gurung, president of the Nepal National Mountain Guide Association, believes the Broad Peak avalanche may have begun when a serac, a tower of glacial ice, collapsed and triggered the slab avalanche below. What troubled him was where it happened. Climbers generally regarded the slope between Camps II and III as one of Broad Peak’s more stable sections at that time of year.登山者脚下那些登山产业赖以生存的山峰正在发生越来越多的变化。尼泊尔国家登山向导协会主席图尔·辛格·古隆认为，布洛阿特峰雪崩可能起始于一座冰塔的坍塌，进而触发了下方的板状雪崩。让他担忧的是事发地点。登山者通常认为，布洛阿特峰二号营地与三号营地之间的坡面在每年该时节属于较为稳定的路段。“The mountains are getting black,” Mr. Gurung said, describing the disappearing snow and ice across the Himalayas and Karakoram. “Every mountain has a rockfall problem.”“山峰正在变黑，”古隆在描述喜马拉雅山脉和喀喇昆仑山脉冰雪消融时说，“每座山都有落石问题。”Dave Watson, a 50-year-old American mountaineer who has summited Mount Everest seven times since 2004, has witnessed the change. “Some of this hazard has always been there, but in a lower volume,” Mr. Watson said.50岁的美国登山者戴夫·沃森自2004年以来已七次登顶珠穆朗玛峰，他亲眼目睹了这一变化。“这些危险过去一直存在，但规模较小，”沃森说。8月27日，浑浊的水和碎石在尼泊尔波特科西河已被冲刷拓宽的河道中奔涌。The changes are visible not just at the extreme elevations reached by Everest climbers but also on mountains visited by the trekkers and climbers vital to Nepal’s economy.变化不仅出现在珠峰登山者所到达的极高海拔区域，也出现在那些对尼泊尔经济至关重要的徒步者和登山者所造访的山峰上。Dr. Khadka cautioned that it was too early to say precisely what triggered the Langtang disaster. But he theorized that a relatively small cornice collapse high on the ridges of Langtang Lirung had started an avalanche of loose rock and moraine across slippery, thawing ground during the wet mid-monsoon season.卡德卡提醒说，现在确定朗塘灾难的具体触发因素还为时过早。但他推测，在雨季中期的湿季，朗塘里隆峰山脊高处一个相对较小的雪檐崩塌，导致在湿滑的解冻地面上发生由松动岩石和冰碛物组成的冰岩崩。For Dr. Khadka, the latest disaster is personal. Speaking from Nepal, he was waiting for news of missing relatives and friends.对卡德卡来说，最近的灾难关系到他个人。他在尼泊尔接受采访时正在等待失踪亲友的消息。Mr. Gurung said guides were already encountering places where traditional climbing and trekking routes had become difficult to recognize as snow and ice disappear and bare rock emerges. One of the most closely watched is the Khumbu Icefall, which begins the climbing route up Everest from Nepal. Dr. Khadka expects it to keep changing. Some sections may become easier to cross, he said, while hanging ice and exposed slopes create new dangers.古隆说，向导们已经发现，随着冰雪消融和裸露岩石的出现，一些传统的登山和徒步路线已变得难以辨认。最受关注的路线之一是昆布冰瀑，始于尼泊尔一侧攀登珠穆朗玛峰的起始路段。卡德卡预计那里还将继续变化。他说，有些路段可能变得更容易通过，但悬挂的冰体和裸露的坡面会带来新的危险。尼泊尔顶尖登山家之一、探险公司Imagine Nepal的创始人明马·加尔杰·夏尔巴。7月底，巴基斯坦喀喇昆仑山脉布洛阿特峰发生雪崩后，他带领探险队找到了遇难者的遗体。Mr. Mingma Sherpa has watched the transformation firsthand. When he first crossed the Icefall in 2004, he remembers negotiating numerous crevasses on aluminum ladders. This year, he said, climbers needed ladders in only two places.明马·夏尔巴亲眼目睹了这一转变。他记得2004年第一次穿越冰瀑时，需要在许多裂缝处借助铝合金梯子通过。他说，今年登山者仅在两个地方需要使用梯子。Mr. Watson knew the region devastated by the latest flood. He passed through the Nepal-Tibet border area twice in 2024 and remembered how dramatically it had developed since his early expeditions two decades ago. On journeys to the north side of Everest, crossing the border used to require an overnight stop while climbers waited for immigration formalities and transferred equipment between trucks. In recent years, roads, restaurants, hotels and residences have been built to cater to increasing traffic between the two countries.沃森熟悉最近这场洪水所摧毁的地区。他在2024年两次经过尼泊尔-西藏边境地区，注意到与20年前早期探险时相比，那里发生了巨大变化。在前往珠穆朗玛峰北坡的旅程中，穿越边境过去需要过夜停留，等待入境手续办理并把装备转移到别的卡车上。近年来，为满足两国之间日益增长的往来需求，陆续建起了许多道路、餐馆、酒店和住宅。Mr. Watson saw the aftermath of another Himalayan catastrophe. An earthquake in 2015 shook loose rock and ice in Langtang, where an avalanche buried much of the village and killed hundreds. “The thousand-year flood is happening every few years now,” he said.沃森曾目睹另一场喜马拉雅灾难的后果。2015年的一场地震震落了朗塘地区的岩石和冰，一场雪崩掩埋了村庄的大部分并造成数百人死亡。“千年一遇的洪水现在每隔几年就会发生一次，”他说。Yet Nepal’s younger climbers show little sign of abandoning the profession. Mr. Mingma Sherpa said young people continued to be drawn by the pay and the work, although their backgrounds are changing. Increasingly, Sherpa families live in Kathmandu and other lower-altitude cities. “We were used to playing at higher altitude,” he said. “Now Sherpas are born in the city.”然而，尼泊尔的年轻登山者几乎没有表现出放弃这一职业的迹象。明马·夏尔巴说，尽管他们的背景正在发生变化，但年轻人仍然被薪酬和工作本身所吸引。越来越多的夏尔巴家庭居住在加德满都和其他低海拔城市。“我们过去习惯在高海拔地区玩耍，”他说。“现在夏尔巴人出生在城市里。”Drones, Transceivers and Lighter Equipment无人机、收发器和更轻便的装备2024年，登山者在珠穆朗玛峰上为登山季做准备。Dipan Gurung, 25, is part of the new generation of guides. He comes from the Makalu region and a family of farmers rather than the Khumbu communities traditionally associated with Himalayan guiding. He began as a trekking porter in 2019. Many young men from his region traditionally went into the army, he said; now growing numbers are seeking professional climbing and rescue training.25岁的迪潘·古隆是新一代向导中的一员。他来自马卡鲁地区，出身于农民家庭，而非传统上与喜马拉雅向导相关联的昆布社区。他说，他于2019年开始做徒步背夫。他所在地区的许多年轻人过去传统上是去当兵；如今越来越多的人正在接受专业登山和救援训练。Mr. Gurung has watched glaciers melt into ponds. “We are facing a future of rockfalls and floods,” he said. Yet he does not believe that makes his career prohibitively dangerous. While the mountains are becoming less predictable, equipment and tools are more accurate and advanced. His generation has detailed weather forecasts, GPS devices, avalanche transceivers, lighter equipment and training in reading snowpacks. They also use drones, which provide information on conditions and carry supplies.古隆目睹了冰川融化成池塘。“我们正面临落石和洪水的未来，”他说。但他不认为这会使他的职业危险到无法再继续。虽然山峰正变得愈发难以预测，但设备和工具更加精确和先进。他这一代人拥有详细的天气预报、GPS设备、雪崩收发器、更轻便的装备以及解读雪层的培训。他们还使用无人机，既可提供路况信息，也可运送物资。Some of those tools are already changing the way Everest is climbed, particularly for the Sherpas and other Nepali high-altitude workers who have long borne much of the danger of commercial expeditions. While foreign clients may cross the Khumbu Icefall a handful of times during an expedition, Nepali workers traditionally make repeated trips through it, carrying tents, oxygen, food and equipment to higher camps. On April 18, 2014, that disparity in risk became starkly apparent when a mass of ice collapsed above the route, killing 16 Nepali climbing workers in the icefall.其中一些工具已经在改变攀登珠穆朗玛峰的方式，尤其是对于夏尔巴人和其他尼泊尔高海拔工作者而言，他们长期以来承担了商业探险活动中的大部分风险。外国客户在整个探险过程中可能只穿越昆布冰瀑几次，而尼泊尔工人传统上需要多次往返，将帐篷、氧气、食物和设备运往更高处的营地。2014年4月18日，这种风险差距变得极为明显——冰瀑路线上方的一大块冰体坍塌，造成16名尼泊尔登山工人在冰瀑中丧生。Drones now offer a way to reduce some of that exposure. “We are trying to reduce people going through the icefall by moving loads up by drones,” Mr. Gurung said, describing machines capable of carrying roughly 88 pounds. Mr. Watson expects drones to increasingly scout for danger as well. “Drones will be a huge part of safety plans in the future,” he said.无人机现在提供了一种降低这种风险的途径。“我们正尝试用无人机运送物资，以减少人员穿越冰瀑的次数，”古隆说道，他提到的无人机能够承载约40公斤的重量。沃森预计无人机将越来越多地用于危险侦察。“无人机将成为未来安全计划的重要组成部分，”他说。在尼泊尔，徒步者行走在安纳普尔纳地区陀龙垭口的积雪小径上。Helicopters offer another way around dangerous terrain, although Mr. Gurung and Mr. Watson are wary of treating them as a solution because high-altitude flying depends on visibility, wind and landing conditions.直升机提供了绕过危险地形的另一种方式，不过古隆和沃森不太愿意将其视为一种解决方案，因为高海拔飞行取决于能见度、风向和降落条件。On Wednesday, while Mr. Purja’s family and friends gathered in England, Mr. Gurung was back at work in Nepal, helping coordinate rescue teams in the disaster zone. With roads severed and some areas accessible only by helicopter, his association was sending trained guides into steep terrain and confined spaces difficult for conventional rescue teams to reach.周三，当普尔贾的家人和朋友聚集在英国时，古隆已经回到尼泊尔工作，协助协调灾区的救援队伍。由于道路中断，部分地区只能通过直升机进入，他所在的协会正派遣训练有素的向导进入传统救援队难以抵达的陡峭地形和狭小空间。Soon, if conditions allow, climbers and trekkers will return to the mountains. The autumn trekking season is approaching. Expeditions are booked, and guides, porters, teahouses and lodges are depending on them.不久之后，如果条件允许，登山者和徒步者将重返山区。秋季徒步季即将来临。人们在预订探险活动，向导、背夫、茶馆和旅店的生存有赖于此。For Mr. Watson, perhaps the starkest evidence of how much those mountains have changed is at the very top of the world.对沃森而言，这些山峰发生了多大变化，最明显的证据或许就在世界之巅。“If the summit of Everest has that much less ice,” Mr. Watson said, “then there is no place on Earth that is untouched.”“如果珠穆朗玛峰的顶峰都少了那么多冰，”沃森说，“那么地球上就没有一处地方是能躲得过的了。”翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。