USDJPY: Short-term rebound or weekly trap?U.S. Dollar / Japanese YenFOREXCOM:USDJPYYenSenseiUSDJPY: Short-term rebound or weekly trap? Japanese wisdom says: “After victory, tighten the cords of your helmet” — 勝って兜の緒を締めよ.USDJPY has recovered toward 158.87 after the intervention-driven decline. CFTC data show that leveraged funds reduced their yen shorts by 42,159 contracts, but the pair continues to recover as the US–Japan yield differential remains wide. On the hourly chart, 158.53 has turned into support. Price remains above the EMA 9, EMA 20 and SMA 50, but the SMA 200 near 158.95 is the next obstacle. The weekly picture is less bullish. USDJPY remains below the weekly EMA 20 at 159.46 and EMA 9 at 159.85, while the SMA 50 near 156.62 provides support. 1-hour setup — conditional long Entry: 158.53–158.63 after a bullish rejection Stop loss: 158.18 TP1: 158.95 TP2: 159.50 TP3: 160.08 Confirmation: 158.53 holds as hourly support. Invalidation: an hourly close below 158.20. Weekly setup — conditional short Entry: 159.45–159.85 after a bearish rejection Stop loss: 160.90 TP1: 156.62 TP2: 152.50 Confirmation: price fails to recover above the weekly EMA 20 and EMA 9. Invalidation: a weekly close above 160.90. The hourly setup follows the short-term recovery. The weekly setup treats the same advance as a possible retest of higher-timeframe resistance. US CPI on August 12 at 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and may determine which scenario activates. Will USDJPY reclaim the weekly averages or reject them? This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a personalized investment recommendation.