Intel dilutes shareholders: Will launch $15 billion secondary

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Intel is selling $15 billion of common stock in a secondary offering as it dilutes shareholders (and the US government). Underwriters have an option for $2.25 billion more as well.Intel closed Friday at $101.65 for a market cap of about $562 billion, with a 52-week range of $19.61 to $142.35. The stock is up roughly 170% in 2026. At current levels the full deal including the greenshoe is around 3% dilution. That is a cheap way to fund a fab but it's indicative of a market where debt is getting harder to fund. Google earlier this year surprised markets by issuing stock and there are worries that other large names could be next.The Trump administration took 9.9% of the company in 2025 at $20.47 a share for $8.9 billion — more than 430 million shares — with Nvidia and SoftBank adding $5 billion and $2 billion. Intel is now trading at five times the government's entry price and issuing barely a third as many shares to raise nearly twice the money. The stock became something of a meme after the US government got involved and since then it has repeatedly been picked as a 'winner' for various projects.2026 capex guidance is already above $20 billion, and management has been clear it won't ramp spending without customer commitments in hand. Put those together with this $15 raise and the message is that the 2027 capex number is going meaningfully higher, and that the commitments exist. There is a big push to move US chipmaking into domestic hands. Revenue rose 25% to $16.13 billion, but client units fell 8% with ASPs up 27%, and server units rose 9% with ASPs up 48%. That is a shortage-and-pricing story more than a share-gain story. Foundry revenue was $5.8 billion, up 31%, but external sales were $293 million — about 5% of the segment. The external foundry business that justifies this capex is still a rounding error, and the equity being sold today is funding capacity for customers who have signed nothing public.I wonder if this the prick that tanks the valuation. Consensus earnings are $1.52 this year and $2.12 next year, which puts it at 67x and 48x forward earnings. This is also a company that doesn't have a great track record of executing on large projects on budget or on time. By the time everything is built, the chip boom could be long over. Now I imagine that Nvidia and the like will be strong-armed into some long-term contracts but a full US government backing isn't exactly a forever business.Shares are down 4.5% in the pre-market. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.