NQ Weekly Outlook – Week 32 of 2026 (10-14 AUG)E-mini Nasdaq-100 FuturesCME_MINI:NQ1!UA_CAPITALNQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK NQ Weekly Recap Outlook We took a total of three trades last week. Two were long setups and one was a short setup. All three trades finished as winners, resulting in a 100% win rate and a highly profitable week. 1. Key Level Breakout Long Scenario: Generated a 1,550-point move, representing approximately a 5.5% upside move. 2. Supply Short Scenario: Captured a 650-point downside move, representing approximately a 2.2% decline. 3. Flip Level Bounce Long Scenario: Generated a 500-point move, representing approximately a 1.75% upside move. (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) UA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics Total Trades Taken: 3 Winning Trades: 3 Losing Trades: 0 Win Rate: 100% Long Trades: 2 Wins Short Trades: 1 Win Result: Another deep green week. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush. The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish. This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops. Given the potential for acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 DEMAND 1 (29831) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 29150. Long Scenario 2 DEMAND 2 (28508) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this area and confirms support, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 28200. Long Scenario 3 Flip Level (30120) This is the primary Flip Level. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 4-hour bullish candle close, the market structure may shift further toward the upside and long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must break above the level and produce a bullish 4-hour candle close above the zone. A subsequent retest of the level provides the entry trigger. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 29156. Short Scenario Flip Level (29900) This level represents the lower boundary of the Flip Level. A confirmed rejection from this area could provide a tactical short opportunity. Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 4-hour bearish rejection candle. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of decline. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 30120. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully. 6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours). This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.