ES Weekly Outlook – Week 32 of 2026 (10-14 AUG)E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!UA_CAPITALES WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK ES Weekly Recap Outlook Last week, ES did not provide the retest we were waiting for, so no trade was taken. However, the bullish move toward all-time highs developed aggressively in the direction outlined in our previous outlook. (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) [bUA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics Total Trades Taken: 8 Winning Trades: 6 Losing Trades: 2 Win Rate: 75% Index Options: 7 Trades (5 Wins / 2 Losses) Futures Desk: 1 Trade (1 Win — ES) Tactical Equities: 0 Trades Result: Another deep green week. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush. The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish. This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops. Given the potential for acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (7725) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every 5 points of advance. Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 7725. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (7695) This is the main demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every 5 points of advance. Invalidation: Daily candle close below 7645. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully. 6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours). This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.