BBCA: Indonesia’s Deposit Machine Is Finally Getting CheaperPT Bank Central Asia TbkIDX_DLY:BBCAstouflacrucoBBCA has fallen from roughly Rp10,800 to around Rp6,300, a drawdown of more than 40% from its 2024 peak. That is a significant reset for Bank Central Asia, a business that has historically commanded a premium because of its exceptional deposit franchise, profitability and asset quality. The Master Buy Scanner V2 is getting interested — but the monthly chart is not ready yet. Master Buy Scanner V2 — Monthly Score: 2/3 Action: WATCH Decision: WATCH Entry quality: OK — 50% Position size: NONE — 0% Top recent: YES WT cross: NO Band 1: RED Combined: GREEN 6/10 Bands synchronized: NO Cycle: ACTIVE Bars since BUY: Never WT1 / WT2: -58.40 / -56.92 Momentum is already extremely depressed, with both WT lines below the lower accumulation zone. But there is still no bullish WT cross, Band 1 remains red and synchronization is missing. Interestingly, the 2-week chart already looks much stronger — 3/3 score, bullish WT cross, green Band 1, synchronized bands and Green 7/10 Combined. But the scanner explicitly marks that timeframe ADV BLOCK / USE 1M / 3W, so I would not override the monthly signal. That leaves BBCA in a clear category: Very interesting fundamentally — technically still WATCH. The deposit franchise is the real moat BCA’s biggest advantage is not simply loan growth. It is its enormous base of cheap transactional deposits. At June 2026: Total loans exceeded Rp1,000 trillion for the first time, reaching Rp1,036 trillion, +8% YoY. CASA deposits reached Rp1,082 trillion, +10.2%. CASA represented an exceptional 84.3% of total deposits. Total third-party funds reached Rp1,284 trillion. Net profit for H1 was Rp29.5 trillion. That CASA ratio matters enormously for a bank. Current and savings accounts are generally cheaper funding than term deposits, giving BCA a structural funding-cost advantage over competitors. The scale of the franchise is also remarkable: BCA served around 42 million customer accounts and processed more than 124 million transactions per day at June 2026. Credit quality remains excellent Despite the economic uncertainty, BCA's asset quality remains strong. At H1: NPL ratio: 1.9% Loan-at-risk ratio: 4.9% Productive financing: Rp802T, +11% Corporate lending: +13.6% Commercial & SME lending: +6.6% In Q1, BCA also reported a 25.1% ROE, 27.0% capital adequacy ratio and 85.2% CASA ratio. That combination — high ROE, low credit losses, abundant capital and cheap funding — explains why BBCA has historically traded at a premium to many other Indonesian banks. There is one important pressure point: margins The business is strong, but not everything is accelerating. BCA's Q1 net interest margin declined from 5.8% to 5.4% YoY, as loan yields fell faster than funding costs. Risk-adjusted NIM declined from 5.3% to 4.8%. Net interest income was essentially flat in Q1, although fee and commission income grew 14.2% and consolidated net profit still increased 3.8%. This is probably one reason the scanner's growth outlook is not especially aggressive. The bull case needs loan growth, fee income and continued CASA strength to offset pressure on spreads. Valuation is finally much more interesting The scanner gives BBCA 4/5 on valuation. Its current readings include: Earnings-price multiple: 13.35 — GREEN Cash-flow-price: 11.31 — GREEN Profit/share: 471.83 Cash yield: 1.45% — RED For a bank, however, I would put less weight on conventional cash-flow and debt metrics than I would for an industrial company. Deposits and financial liabilities are part of the operating model itself. For BBCA, I care more about: ROE + NIM + CASA + credit quality + capital adequacy + earnings valuation. And on those measures, the current setup is considerably more interesting than it was near the highs. Management is also buying back shares BCA announced a share-repurchase program of up to Rp5 trillion, approved for a 12-month period beginning after the March 2026 AGM. The company stated that the program would not materially affect its financial performance or business activities. Buybacks are not the central BBCA thesis, but they become more accretive when the stock trades materially below previous valuation levels. Key technical levels Based on the chart: Immediate support: Rp6,000–6,200 Major support: Rp5,000–5,300 First resistance: Rp6,700–7,000 Recovery confirmation: Rp7,500–8,000 Major resistance: Rp8,500–9,000 Previous highs: Rp10,500–10,800 The monthly oscillator is already where I want it. Now I want the WT cross, Band 1 turning green and synchronization. That would convert an attractive price into a genuinely attractive technical setup. My classification: PREMIUM BUSINESS, WATCHING FOR THE TURN BBCA currently offers: 21% scanner return on capital 2.5/3 business-quality score Exceptional CASA funding Low NPLs Strong loan growth High ROE Large capital buffer A materially lower valuation Deeply oversold long-term momentum But technically: No monthly WT cross. Band 1 RED. No synchronization. No BUY event. The 2W chart is already teasing the reversal, but the scanner itself tells me not to trust that timeframe yet. Current verdict: WATCH — one of the more interesting quality names if the monthly turn confirms. What would you do? A) Start small around Rp6,300 B) Wait for the monthly scanner BUY C) Wait for confirmation above Rp7,000 Master Buy Scanner V2: Not financial advice.