BTC | Supply Overhead, Sell-Side Liquidity BelowBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTBigBeluga By analyzing the #BTC (Bitcoin) chart across the 1H and 15m timeframes, we can see a market that has just changed hands. The hourly trend was constructive for days, and that has now broken. What follows is a structure with clearly defined supply above and resting liquidity below, and the sequence between them is what matters. 1H Timeframe The hourly had been in a clean uptrend, printing a series of bullish BOS as buyers repeatedly took out the highs above them. That sequence has ended. Price printed a bearish CHoCH, and it was confirmed shortly after by a bearish BOS — sellers now set the terms on this timeframe. The move down left behind two distinct pockets of unmitigated supply. The lower one sits between $63,611.14 and $63,710.18, where an inverted FVG and an order block occupy the same band. When two mechanisms overlap on the same prices, that region carries more weight than either would alone. Above it, a second supply pocket sits between $63,869.73 and $64,051.29. Beneath price, the picture is equally clean. The 1H Order Block ($62,450.25 – $62,802.37) is the demand that has not been revisited, and directly underneath it rests sell-side liquidity at $62,450.25 and again at $62,296.19. That liquidity is what gives the order block its magnetic quality — price is not simply falling toward support, it is falling toward stops. Price is currently trading around $63,373.07, beneath both supply pockets and above the order block. 15m Timeframe The lower timeframe repeats the same message with more precision. Price printed successive CHoCHs on the way down, confirmed by a bearish BOS, and left its own unmitigated zones behind. The 15m inverted FVG sits between $63,974.27 and $64,045.79, and a second area of interest sits between $63,644.15 and $63,710.18. The detail worth noting is the overlap. The 15m zone at $63,644.15 – $63,710.18 shares its upper boundary exactly with the hourly cluster at $63,710.18, and the 15m inverted FVG at $63,974.27 – $64,045.79 falls inside the hourly supply pocket at $63,869.73 – $64,051.29. Both timeframes are pointing at the same two regions independently. The Bias Scenario A — the base case. The structure suggests a corrective move higher into one of the two supply regions before the next leg down. Either the lower cluster at $63,611.14 – $63,710.18 or the upper pocket at $63,869.73 – $64,051.29 is a reasonable place for that retrace to end, and the timeframe overlap makes both credible. From a rejection at either region, the draw is toward the 1H Order Block at $62,450.25 – $62,802.37, with the sell-side liquidity resting immediately beneath it acting as the reason price is being pulled there in the first place. Scenario B — continuation beneath the order block. If the order block does not hold and price closes decisively below $62,450.25, the structure opens toward the deeper sell-side liquidity at $62,296.19. That would represent the demand failing rather than absorbing, and it changes the character of the move from a correction into something heavier. The invalidation. This bearish read depends on supply holding. A decisive close above $64,051.29 would mean both pockets have been absorbed rather than respected, which removes the basis for the sequence described above and puts the structure back in the buyers' hands. The rule that governs all of it is unchanged: a break is a candle close, not a wick. These zones are exactly where a spike through and an immediate reversal is most likely, in either direction. Fundamental Backdrop The macro backdrop lines up with the technical read more closely than usual right now. Bitcoin opened Tuesday at $63,912.50, down roughly 1.4% from Monday's open, traded up toward $64,282 in the morning session, and has drifted lower since. That intraday fade is the bearish shift visible on the hourly chart. The most significant development is corporate rather than macro. Strategy sold 1,690 BTC for approximately $108.6 million, using the proceeds to repurchase preferred stock. The company has now sold roughly $432 million of bitcoin during 2026 and has not made a purchase for seven consecutive weeks. For a market that spent years treating this buyer as a structural bid, a shift from accumulation to distribution is a meaningful change in the supply picture, and it deserves more weight than a single headline usually would. Regulatory progress has also stalled. The Senate has pushed the CLARITY Act to the autumn, removing a catalyst that parts of the market had been positioning for. The balance to note is context. Bitcoin remains well below its all-time high of $128,198.07 set in October 2025 and is trading roughly $54,500 lower than a year ago, which means a great deal of downside has already been priced rather than lying ahead. The binary risk sits directly in front of us: inflation data is due this week. That release is the most likely catalyst to either drive price into the order block below or force the reclaim of supply above, so the resolution of this structure will probably be decided by macro rather than by price action alone. This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. Best Regards, BigBeluga