XAUUSD — Discretionary AnalysisGoldOANDA:XAUUSDAndrei_CMulti-timeframe structure (1D → 15M): Gold is recovering from a ~30% correction off the 5,602 ATH, with a structural low at 3,942-3,960 (July 2026). Since August 5, a sustained rally has printed higher-highs/higher-lows across every timeframe, repeatedly capped in the 4,430-4,480 zone — rejected 4 times so far. Macro context: This week's catalysts — PPI + jobless claims (Aug 13), Michigan inflation expectations (Aug 14). The fundamental picture is mixed: rate-hike pricing (~80% odds of a Fed move in 2026) supports the dollar and pressures gold, while China's gold purchases (largest monthly increase since 2023) and ongoing US-Israel-Iran tensions provide support. Primary hypothesis — LONG: Entry: 4,370-4,390 SL: below 4,300 TP1: 4,449 / TP2: 4,600 R:R to TP2: ~2.5:1 Invalidation: 4H close below 4,300 Alternative hypothesis — SHORT (counter-trend): Entry: 4,430-4,449 SL: above 4,460 TP1: 4,360 / TP2: 4,300 R:R to TP2: ~5:1 Note: goes against the dominant trend, lower-probability setup than the long thesis What we're watching: the reaction to today's PPI and tomorrow's data — a clean break above 4,449 confirms continuation; another rejection from 4,430-4,480 opens up the short scenario. This is an educational/analytical scenario, not investment advice.