KATRIN BENNHOLD2026年8月13日Afghanistan has a track record of defeating superpowers. The mujahedeen humbled the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and five years ago the Taliban pushed out the United States.阿富汗有着击败超级大国的历史记录。20世纪80年代，圣战者组织让苏联吃尽苦头；五年前，塔利班又将美国赶出了阿富汗。But can Afghanistan’s rulers overcome the discontent of their own people?但阿富汗的统治者能否化解本国民众的不满？With the country on the verge of another all-out war, this time with Pakistan, that is less than certain. Today, my colleague Elian Peltier explains why all the ingredients for things to spiral out of control are there.随着该国濒临又一场全面战争——这次是与巴基斯坦——这一问题的答案远未明朗。为什么说所有可能导致局势失控的条件都已齐备？今天，我的同事埃利安·佩尔蒂埃将作出解释。What five years of Taliban rule looks like塔利班统治五年后的阿富汗By Elian Peltier撰文：埃利安·佩尔蒂埃The Taliban took over Afghanistan five years ago this week. They pushed out the world’s most powerful army. Yet the mood among Taliban officials I’ve spoken with and soldiers I’ve bumped into at checkpoints hasn’t exactly been celebratory — more like embattled.五年前的这一周，塔利班接管了阿富汗。他们将世界上最强大的军队赶了出去。然而，无论是我采访过的塔利班官员，还是我在检查站遇到的塔利班士兵，感受到的气氛远非喜悦，而更像是如临大敌。On what could have been a triumphant anniversary for the group, the Taliban find themselves in crisis at home and abroad.在这个本应是该组织庆祝胜利的周年纪念日，塔利班却发现自己内外交困。They face a conflict just short of open war with neighboring Pakistan. They’re dealing with fresh waves of attacks from armed groups who want to topple them. Add to that mass unemployment, near-total international isolation and growing domestic discontent, and it all amounts to the most serious threats the Taliban have encountered since their victory in 2021.他们与邻国巴基斯坦的冲突已经接近开战的程度。国内武装组织发动的新一波袭击接连不断，矛头直指这个政权。再加上大规模失业、近乎彻底的国际孤立以及日益高涨的国内不满情绪，种种叠加构成了塔利班自2021年夺权以来所面临的最严峻威胁。It’s too early to tell whether all this will escalate in a way that could threaten the regime’s survival. But it has cracked the thin veneer of security and stability that the Taliban herald as their primary achievement since taking over — and their primary selling point to the world.这一切是否会进一步激化，乃至动摇该政权的根基，目前下结论为时尚早。但这已足以戳破塔利班自掌权以来一再标榜的首要成就——也是他们向世界推销的最大卖点——即那层脆弱的安全与稳定表象。坎大哈的阿富汗女性，摄于2025年5月。 Joao Silva/The New York TimesA tight grip on power — and yet权力掌控严密——但仍不稳固The Taliban are holding Afghan society in a chokehold that spares no one. Girls and women face restrictions to a degree unseen anywhere else in the world. Religious minorities are witnessing the forced closure of their places of worship. Anyone who voices criticism is repressed.塔利班以令人窒息的方式掌控着阿富汗社会，无人幸免。女性不分长幼，承受着世界上其他地方绝无仅有的严苛限制。宗教少数群体的礼拜场所遭到强制关闭。任何敢于开口批评的人都难逃镇压。That grip on power over a country of nearly 45 million people seems immovable. The Taliban collect taxes and are pretty good at it. They are building roads, dams and canals. European countries are desperate to work with them to deport Afghan migrants and asylum seekers. And when someone shuts the door on them, as Pakistan did when it closed its border last year, they open new ones: Afghanistan has increasingly relied on trade with Iran, India and Central Asian states like Uzbekistan.在这个拥有近4500万人口的国家，塔利班的权力掌控看似牢不可破。他们征收税款，而且相当有一套。他们修路、建坝、开渠。欧洲国家迫切希望与他们达成合作，以遣返阿富汗移民和庇护申请者。当有人向他们关上大门——就像巴基斯坦去年关闭边境那样——他们便另寻出路：阿富汗越来越多地依赖与伊朗、印度以及乌兹别克斯坦等中亚国家的贸易往来。And yet the signs of trouble that have appeared in recent months are impossible to ignore.然而，人们对近几个月来浮出水面的麻烦迹象已无法视而不见。An underequipped Afghan Army waits nervously at the border with Pakistan. Once a sponsor of the Taliban, Pakistan has launched dozens of airstrikes on Afghanistan in recent months; killed 500 civilians since October, according to the United Nations; and threatened to go all in against the Taliban regime, which it accuses of harboring militants who are staging attacks on Pakistani territory.装备简陋的阿富汗军队在巴基斯坦边境紧张候命。曾是塔利班靠山的巴基斯坦近几个月来已对阿富汗发动了数十次空袭；据联合国统计，自去年10月以来已造成500名平民死亡；巴方还威胁要对塔利班政权全面开战，指责其窝藏在巴基斯坦境内发动袭击的武装分子。The mistrust goes both ways: The Taliban have accused Pakistan of supporting the armed groups that have attacked Taliban outposts in Afghanistan’s northeastern province of Badakhshan and are gearing up for a sustained offensive.双方都对彼此抱有不信任：塔利班指责巴基斯坦支持那些袭击了阿富汗东北部巴达赫尚省塔利班据点的武装组织，这些组织正在准备发动持续攻势。Whether, or to what extent, Pakistan is actively supporting anti-Taliban groups is not clear, but suspicions are high enough that a senior Western diplomat with decades of experience working on Afghanistan told me this summer, “This region doesn’t need another proxy war.”巴基斯坦是否正在积极扶持反塔利班武装，以及扶持的程度究竟几何，目前尚无定论，但双方猜忌之深，一位在阿富汗工作数十年的西方资深外交官今年夏天这样告诉我：“这个地区不需要再来一场代理人战争。”巴基斯坦一处边境口岸附近的阿富汗难民，摄于去年。 Asim Hafeez for The New York TimesThe picture on the domestic front is also grim. The Taliban are struggling to deal with a cascade of humanitarian and economic crises. Nearly four million Afghans have been forcibly returned from Iran and Pakistan since January 2025 — one of the world’s largest episodes of reverse migration in decades. Aid cuts have plunged millions into deeper food insecurity. And UNESCO says the Taliban have deprived 2.4 million Afghan girls of a secondary education — the equivalent of all school-age girls in New York, Mexico City and Moscow combined, forced to stay home indefinitely.国内形势同样严峻。塔利班正努力应对一连串人道主义和经济危机。自2025年1月以来，已有近400万阿富汗人被伊朗和巴基斯坦强制遣返——这是几十年来世界上最大规模的‘反向移民’事件之一。援助削减将数以百万计的民众推入了更严重的粮食危机。联合国教科文组织表示，塔利班剥夺了240万阿富汗女孩接受中学教育的权利——相当于纽约、墨西哥城和莫斯科所有学龄女孩的总和，她们被迫无限期困守家中。A society can withstand only so much, even under the tightest of grips. At a rare protest in June, demonstrators chanted “Work, education, freedom,” similar to what their Iranian neighbors chanted in 2022. And the leader of a large religious minority warned the Taliban in May: Don’t squeeze Afghan society too much, or it will explode.一个社会所能承受的压迫是有限的，哪怕处于最严酷的管控之下。今年6月一场罕见的抗议活动中，示威者高呼“工作、教育、自由”——与邻国伊朗人在2022年喊出的口号如出一辙。一个大型宗教少数群体的领袖也在5月向塔利班发出警告：不要把阿富汗社会压迫得太紧，否则它会爆炸。The potential to spiral?会不会局势失控？The Taliban know the world wants a stable Afghanistan — one that isn’t a source of refugees, opium or terrorism.塔利班知道世界想要一个稳定的阿富汗——一个不再输出难民、鸦片或恐怖主义的国家。The Taliban claim the country no longer poses a security threat to the region or the West. They say that they have cracked down on the Islamic State, and that they want peaceful relations based on trade and diplomacy, including with the U.S.塔利班声称，阿富汗已不再对地区或西方的安全构成威胁。他们表示，已大力打击伊斯兰国，寻求与包括美国在内的国家建立以贸易和外交为基础的和平关系。All of this may have some truth to it. The Taliban don’t want their various crises to spiral. But it also might not be entirely up to them.这些说法或许有一定真实性。塔利班并不愿看到眼下的各种危机进一步失控。但这或许也并非完全取决于他们的意愿。All the ingredients for things to get out of control in Afghanistan again are here, analysts say: Growing animosity toward Pakistan and a vast population of unemployed young Afghans are fertile ground for radicalization, especially as economic opportunities are nearly nonexistent. Under the Taliban, Afghanistan is, once again, a pariah state, with barely any allies.分析人士说，所有可能让阿富汗再次陷入失控局面的条件都已经具备：对巴基斯坦日益加深的敌意以及大量失业的阿富汗年轻人都为激进化提供了肥沃的土壤，尤其是在经济机会几乎为零的情况下。在塔利班的统治下，阿富汗再次沦为国际弃儿，几乎没有盟友。As a foreign military official in Afghanistan put it, the country is no longer the hub for jihadism that it used to be — but it has everything it needs to become one again.正如一位驻阿富汗的外国军官所言：该国已经不再是过去那个圣战主义的中心，但它已经具备了再次成为这种中心所需要的一切条件。The past five years have brought some predictability and an end to almost two decades of fighting, which many Afghans have welcomed, despite the immense hardship and repression. But Afghanistan remains shattered, and what always looked like a fragile peace is already at risk.过去的五年带来了一定程度的可预测性，也终结了将近20年的战乱，尽管这伴随着巨大的苦难与压迫，许多阿富汗人仍对此感到些许欣慰。但阿富汗依然满目疮痍，那个看来本就岌岌可危的和平已然处于风雨飘摇之中。本文节译自时报全球新闻电邮The World。翻译：杜然获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site