Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTJoel SouthTue, August 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM GMT+2 4 min readQuick ReadCMG sits more than 26% below Wall Street's $44 consensus target, yet 24 of 33 analysts still rate it a Buy.Boatwright noted 60% of Chipotle's core users earn over $100,000 annually, giving the brand pricing power most fast-casual peers can't match.Restaurant-level margins fell 220 basis points to 25.2%, with management guiding just 1% comparable-sales growth in Q3 amid ongoing Cyclospora headwinds.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chipotle Mexican Grill didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) has dropped 12.64% over the past week, opening Monday, Aug. 10, at $32.44. That puts the stock more than 26% below Wall Street's consensus price target of $44.32. The selloff extends a brutal year for the fast-casual chain, with shares down 12.71% year to date, 21.37% over the past 12 months and 7.16% over the past month alone.ThinkstockChipotle operates over 4,000 restaurants serving customizable burritos, bowls and tacos. The company has been a growth story for years, but recent results show the wheels coming off. The gap between Chipotle's current price and analyst targets reflects a market pricing in serious headwinds that Wall Street may be underestimating.Transaction Declines and Margin Pressure Hit HardThe selloff accelerated after Chipotle reported Q2 results on July 29. Revenue came in at $3.35 billion, barely beating the $3.33 billion estimate, while EPS of 33 cents only beat the 32-cent consensus by a penny. Restaurant-level margin fell 220 basis points to 25.2%, while cost of sales, labor, and other operating expenses all increased. The margin story gets worse when you dig into the cost structure. CFO Adam Rymer explained that "Pricing discipline (1-2% vs. 3-4% inflation) [is] creating 150 bps headwind" for the full year. Management warned of heightened consumer caution, difficult promotional comparisons and an approximately 200-basis-point sales headwind related to industry concerns around Cyclospora; it expects roughly 1% comparable-sales growth in Q3 if the impact persists.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chipotle Mexican Grill didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.Wall Street Still Sees the Growth Story IntactDespite the weak results and cautious guidance, analyst targets remain well above current levels. Of the 33 analysts covering Chipotle, 24 rate it a Buy and nine rate it a Hold and zero rate it a Sell. Overall, the stock receives a consensus Moderate Buy rating, with an average price target that implies as much as 35% upside potential from current prices. Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info