NVDA | +18.23% From The Trap, Two Targets HitNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDABigBeluga By analyzing the #NVDA (NVIDIA) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that the call we published on 29 July has been paid out — and it was paid from the exact level we said it would be. At the time price was trading at $193.23, dipping beneath a key low while the crowd read it as a breakdown. We said the opposite: those were false breaks, the correction was internal rather than external, and the trend was still bullish. Price has since launched off that zone for +18.29% and taken two of the four targets we listed. You can revisit the original breakdown here: ⏱️ 4H Timeframe The thesis rested on one distinction, and that distinction was correct. Every break on the way down was internal structure — the external swing defining this trend is the major Protected Low at $164.22, and price never came close to it. What looked like a reversal was a deep correction inside an intact uptrend. We also set one precise rule for when we would be wrong: the first decisive candle close below $189.80, the base of the false-break region. That close never came. Price wicked, probed and frightened people — but it never closed beneath the line. That is the entire lesson of the idea: the traders who sold the wicks got run over, and the level that mattered was defined by a close. From the FVG ($189.86 – $194.41) price launched, and the expansion was immediate — a clean +18.29% move off that base. It reclaimed the Protected Low at $194.78, drove through the Protected High at $213.98, our first target, and continued into the BSL at $221.72, our second. Price is now trading around $223.94. Here is what has structurally changed, and it matters. The Protected High at $213.98 was not just a target — breaking it printed the first higher high of this recovery, which formally repairs the internal structure the correction damaged. That level has now flipped from resistance into the first band of support, and the FVG at $189.86 – $194.41 beneath it is the origin of the entire move: the demand that would need to be defended on any deeper retrace. Two targets remain stacked overhead and untouched: $231.71 and $236.55. 🎯 The Bias Scenario A — the base case (continuation). The structure is now cleaner than it was when we published. The internal correction is repaired, price is making higher highs, and the level that gave way has flipped to support. My expectation is continuation toward the remaining liquidity at $231.71 and then $236.55, with pullbacks into the $213.98 band treated as opportunities rather than warnings — provided they hold on a closing basis. What I would not do is chase here: price has run over 18% in under two weeks and is sitting just beneath resting liquidity, which is the worst possible entry. The cleaner approach is a retest of the flipped level. Scenario B — the pullback and the invalidation. Two layers, and both have moved up with the structure. Near term, a loss of $213.98 on a decisive close would signal the move needs more time and put the FVG at $189.86 – $194.41 back in play as the demand to watch. Structurally, the bullish thesis only truly breaks below that FVG and then the OB at $181.01 – $185.66, with the major Protected Low at $164.22 as the final line. Nothing on this chart is close to that. And the rule that made this trade work has not changed: a break is a candle close, not a wick. It saved us on the way up when the false breaks were shaking people out. It applies exactly the same way now that we are approaching liquidity from below. 📰 Fundamental Backdrop The fundamental picture has evolved meaningfully since our last note, and there is one development that deserves more attention than it is getting. The China exposure has effectively become a free option. NVIDIA shipped zero H20 units into China last quarter, against billions of dollars of revenue from that channel a year earlier — and management guided Q2 revenue to $91.0 billion anyway, with China Data Center compute stripped out of the numbers entirely. That is the key point: current guidance assumes China contributes nothing. Any progress there is upside that is not in the model. And there is now a path. In January, the US Bureau of Industry and Security moved H200 export licences to China from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review, and a limited licence approved in February permits small H200 shipments to certain Chinese customers. NVIDIA has booked zero revenue from it so far. So the optionality is live but entirely unpriced — though the attached conditions are restrictive, including a 25% import tariff, a 50% volume cap, mandatory third-party testing and strict customer vetting, which structurally caps how large that revenue can become. Sell-side positioning reflects the broader confidence: an average target near $302.83, with 58 Buys against a single Sell. Now the risks, stated honestly. China licence uncertainty cuts both ways — a case-by-case regime can tighten as easily as it loosens. Concerns around circular financing, where chip demand is partly funded by NVIDIA's own investments in its customers, have become a live part of the bear case and will likely come up on the call. And the calendar is the immediate issue: NVIDIA reports Q2 FY27 on 26 August. That date sits directly between current price and our two remaining targets, which is the single most important thing to understand about this setup right now. The final leg of this idea will very likely be decided by an earnings print rather than by structure — so treat the remaining targets as objectives to manage risk into, not to hold blindly through. Size accordingly. This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see NVIDIA heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳