SRP Bomb Reversal Triggers: Has Bitcoin Bottomed?

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SRP Bomb Reversal Triggers: Has Bitcoin Bottomed?Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSporiaI’ve been using this indicator for many years now. I think it’s one of the best free indicators on TradingView. It’s called SRP — just type “SRP” in the indicators search. Look at it on the weekly chart for Bitcoin. It has perfectly pinpointed the last two bottoms. This is important to stress: it is not a lagging indicator. There are plenty of lagging indicators out there. This is a real-time signal. The bomb reversal signal flips on and off in real time as the weekly candle develops. Back in November 2022 I watched it flip live — that was the absolute bottom of the last cycle. I wasn’t using it during the 2019 bottom (or at least I wasn’t paying attention to it then), so I didn’t see that one in real time. But if you use TradingView’s replay feature you can clearly see it flipped live. Again, not lagging. It has just flipped on again. I only noticed it recently while checking my indicators. It triggered on the weekly candle of the week of 29 June. That was after I posted my TA about ETH needing a fifth wave lower and Bitcoin also needing a fifth wave lower. This signal has thrown that entire thesis into question. Not completely, but we have to respect the evidence. This is one of roughly four bottom indicators I’m watching, and so far it has called the last two bottoms perfectly — including one I saw live. I’m no longer as confident. I’ve already closed my ETH short. If Bitcoin has bottomed, then ETH has bottomed. It’s that simple. We’re not going to get a wave 5 on ETH while Bitcoin is rallying. So for now I’m sidelined. In my last TA I noted that Bitcoin typically takes around 364 days to bottom, which would point to October. If that historical pattern still holds, then this current SRP signal would turn out to be a false one. That is possible — nothing is certain here. Everything is based on probabilities.Before this indicator flashed, I saw a high probability of a fifth wave lower, consistent with the pattern we’ve seen for the last 12–15 years. Now that it has flashed, the picture is much less clear. That’s why I’ve closed positions and moved to the sidelines to watch how this develops. It could still go either way.