Time to Focus on Bitcoin's Volatility WindowBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTreadCrypto Hello, traders. If you follow me, you'll be able to receive new market analyses as quickly as possible. Wishing you successful trading today. ============================================================ ■ ETH VOLATILITY WINDOW ======================= Ethereum's current Volatility Window is expected to come to an end around August 13. The next major ETH Volatility Window is expected around: ▶ August 27 ============================================================ ■ NOW IT'S TIME TO FOCUS ON BTC =============================== Once Ethereum's Volatility Window comes to an end, the next major event to watch will be Bitcoin's Volatility Window. ▶ BTC Major Volatility Window Around August 18 (August 17 - 19) Therefore, we need to closely monitor how BTC establishes its next directional move around this period. --- ## ● StochRSI StochRSI is currently approaching the oversold region. This suggests that downside momentum may begin to weaken, increasing the possibility of a short-term Technical Rebound. However, entering the oversold region alone is not enough to confirm a bullish reversal. ● OBV OBV is currently trending downward. Therefore, it is still difficult to confirm that strong buying pressure is entering the market. ● BSSC BSSC has also fallen below the zero line. In other words, ▶ Selling Pressure is still stronger than Buying Pressure. ============================================================ ■ WHERE WILL SELLING PRESSURE BE ABSORBED? ========================================== The most important question right now is: "At what price level will the market absorb the selling pressure and establish a support structure?" ▶ First Support : 62,793.20 ▶ Second Support : 61,299.80 In particular, ▶ 62,793.20 is an important level where the previous HA-Low was formed. Therefore, if BTC finds support around this level and buying pressure begins to increase, the probability of another bullish move may increase. ============================================================ ■ WHAT DOES BTC NEED FOR A BULLISH REVERSAL? ============================================ For BTC to transition into a stronger bullish trend, price needs to move above: ▶ 66,323.12 ↓ ▶ Hold above 66,323.12 ↓ ▶ Resistance → Support Flip At the same time, the following conditions should also be confirmed. ① StochRSI Maintain upward momentum before entering the Overbought region. ② OBV Break above the High Line ↓ Hold above the High Line ③ BSSC Break above the Zero Line ↓ Hold above the Zero Line If these three conditions develop together, the move may be considered more than just a short-term Technical Rebound. It could indicate: ▶ Strengthening Bullish Momentum ▶ Increasing Probability of a Trend Reversal ============================================================ ■ FIRST LEVEL TO WATCH IN THE SHORT TERM ======================================== From a short-term perspective, the first important price level is: ▶ StochRSI 80 : 64,999.0 BTC needs to move above this level and establish support. In other words: 64,999.0 Breakout ↓ Support Confirmation ↓ 66,323.12 Test This is the short-term price structure I will be watching closely. ============================================================ ■ WHAT IF 62,793.20 BREAKS DOWN? ================================ If BTC fails to hold around 62,793.20 and continues to move lower, the next major support zone is: ▶ 59,371.07 - 61,299.80 This zone represents a previous high area and an important potential support zone from a medium- to long-term perspective. Therefore, to preserve the broader bullish structure, BTC should absorb selling pressure and establish support within this area. ============================================================ ■ IN A BEARISH CYCLE, WHERE PRICE HOLDS MATTERS =============================================== This year falls within what I view as Bitcoin's: ▶ 3-Year Bullish + 1-Year Corrective Cycle Therefore, it is important to consider the possibility of a broader corrective phase. In this type of market environment, "How strongly does price rise?" may be less important than: "Where does price hold despite heavy selling pressure?" A price zone that continues to hold despite strong Selling Pressure may eventually develop into a: ▶ Major Low ▶ Bottoming Zone ▶ Accumulation Zone Therefore, rather than trying to predict the exact market bottom, it is more important to prepare a plan for: ▶ Where to accumulate ▶ How much to accumulate ▶ How to scale into positions ============================================================ ■ ACCUMULATION IS MORE ABOUT STRATEGY THAN PRICE ================================================ The simplest way to accumulate is to make one large purchase at a specific price. However, identifying the exact bottom in a real market is extremely difficult. Therefore, a more practical approach is: ▶ Scale-in : Gradual Buying ▶ Scale-out : Gradual Selling Before entering a position, at least three things should be planned. ① Where will I buy? ② What will I do if price rises? ③ What will I do if price falls further? Without a Trading Plan, it can be difficult to accumulate consistently during a prolonged bottoming process. ============================================================ ■ MY BASIC RULE FOR BUYING ========================== My basic approach to buying remains the same. ▶ HA-Low or ▶ DOM(-60) I consider buying when price reaches one of these areas and confirms support. HA-Low and DOM(-60) are important reference points for identifying: ▶ Potential Lows ▶ Potential Accumulation Zones However, there is one important point. !!! HA-Low or DOM(-60) = Final Bottom This is NOT necessarily true. Price may break below these levels and continue moving lower. However, when price reaches these areas, the market may be entering a potential: ▶ Accumulation Zone Therefore, the preferred sequence is: HA-Low / DOM(-60) ↓ Support Confirmation ↓ SBOD Confirmation ↓ Scale-in Buying ============================================================ ■ WHAT TO CONFIRM WITH SBOD =========================== When evaluating whether support is forming, I focus on the following priority: BSSC > OBV > StochRSI In particular: ① BSSC Recover above the Zero Line or remain above Zero. ② OBV Selling Pressure Weakens ↓ OBV Turns Upward ③ StochRSI Bullish Momentum Develops from the lower region. If these conditions begin to develop, the move may represent more than a temporary price rebound. It could indicate that a meaningful support structure is being established. ============================================================ ■ RECOVER CAPITAL WHEN PRICE RISES ================================== During an accumulation phase, buying should not be the only consideration. When price rises, it may be necessary to scale out of part of the position and rebuild available cash. For example: Scale-in Buying ↓ Price Rises ↓ Scale-out Selling ↓ Recover Cash ↓ Price Corrects ↓ Re-accumulate If the rebound is significantly larger than usual, another strategy is to: ▶ Sell enough to recover the Initial Capital ↓ ▶ Recover the Original Investment ↓ ▶ Hold the remaining coins as Profit Position This can be particularly useful during a prolonged Accumulation Phase. The reason is simple: Individual investors do not have unlimited capital. Therefore, rather than repeatedly using only: "Buy → Hold" it may be more effective to use: "Buy → Rebound → Scale-out → Recover Cash → Re-accumulate" This allows capital to circulate throughout the accumulation process. ============================================================ ■ A TRADING PLAN IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN CHART ANALYSIS ====================================================== No matter how accurate your chart analysis may be, it is difficult to convert that analysis into profit without a proper trading strategy and response plan. Therefore, instead of spending all your time analyzing charts, it is important to develop: ▶ A Core Trading Plan that fits your investment style. This Trading Plan should not apply to only one cryptocurrency. It should be a broad framework that can be repeatedly applied across different market conditions. Within that framework, you can adjust your response according to price action: ▶ Entry ▶ Additional Buying ▶ Scale-out ▶ Stop-Loss ▶ Cash Recovery ▶ Re-accumulation By repeating this process, you can gradually develop your own Trading System. ============================================================ ■ THE BTC SCENARIO I'M WATCHING =============================== Bitcoin has historically shown significant market structure changes after October. I am interested to see whether another major structural change develops after October this year. Before that happens, one scenario I am watching closely is: ┌────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ Initial Rebound │ │ ↓ │ │ Sharp Decline │ │ ↓ │ │ Shakeout │ │ ↓ │ │ Trend Reversal Confirmation │ │ │ └────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ============================================================ ■ WILL BITCOIN FORM A SHAKEOUT? =============================== The Shakeout I am referring to is not simply a normal price decline. The potential structure would look like this: Major Support Breakdown ↓ Stop-Losses Triggered ↓ Sell-side Liquidity Swept ↓ Price Recovery ↓ Reclaim of Major Support In other words, depending on market conditions, we could potentially see a: ▶ Liquidity Sweep + ▶ Shakeout If this scenario develops, BTC may need to test the liquidity below: ▶ 59,370.07 However, whether BTC actually trades below this level will depend heavily on the strength of the rebound that occurs beforehand. In particular, we need to monitor: ▶ Where does the rebound peak? ▶ How strongly does OBV recover? ▶ Can BSSC reclaim the Zero Line? ============================================================ ■ THE MOST IMPORTANT ACCUMULATION ZONE ====================================== The area I am currently watching most closely is: ★ 59,370.07 - 61,299.80 ★ As BTC approaches this area, the strategy should not be to make one large purchase immediately. Instead, I prefer to monitor the following sequence: Price Declines ↓ HA-Low / DOM(-60) Appears ↓ Support Confirmation ↓ BSSC Recovery ↓ OBV Selling Pressure Weakens ↓ StochRSI Turns Up ↓ Increase Scale-in Accumulation In particular, if we see: BSSC Recovery ↓ OBV Bullish Reversal ↓ StochRSI Rising this may become an important signal of: ▶ Bottoming Process ▶ Accumulation ▶ Potential Bullish Reversal ============================================================ ■ FINAL CHECK ============= During the upcoming BTC Volatility Window, the most important question is not simply: "Will Bitcoin rise or fall?" The key questions are: ① Where is Selling Pressure absorbed? ② Where does a Support Structure develop? ③ Is real Buying Pressure entering the market? --- ▶ 64,999.0 Short-term StochRSI 80 Reference Level ▶ 66,323.12 Key Breakout and Support-Flip Level for a stronger bullish trend ▶ 62,793.20 Previous HA-Low / Key Support Candidate ▶ 61,299.80 Major Lower Support ★ 59,370.07 - 61,299.80 Major Medium- to Long-Term Support and Accumulation Zone to Watch --- ▶ ETH Volatility Window Ends Around August 13 ▶ BTC Volatility Window ★ August 17 - 19 ★ Main Date : Around August 18 ▶ Next ETH Volatility Window Around August 27 --- Ultimately, during this BTC Volatility Window, the key question is not: "How far will Bitcoin fall?" The more important question is: "Who is absorbing the supply when Bitcoin falls, and where does that buying pressure begin to appear?" August 17 - 19. Let's watch closely to see what kind of market structure Bitcoin creates. ============================================================ Thank you for reading. Wishing you successful trading. ============================================================