Lenovo’s $26.9B quarter hints at AI’s next spending wave

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Lenovo announced Q1 FY2026/27 quarterly revenue of $26.94 billion.  This turns out to be an increase of 43% compared to last year, beating analyst estimates. However, Gartner estimated that global spending on AI will reach $2.59 trillion by 2026, a 47% rise compared to last year.The larger context lies in what Lenovo’s results indicate about what’s happening with investment made in AI. Spending on AI has now extended beyond semiconductors and hyperscale data centers and now includes servers, networking, devices and technology services, thus creating widespread hardware cycles and increased costs of components used for PCs.AI infrastructure is now the market’s center of gravityGartner expects AI infrastructure—including AI-optimized servers, networking, semiconductors and infrastructure-as-a-service—to account for more than 45% of worldwide AI spending in 2026. Spending on AI-optimized servers is also expected to triple over the next five years as businesses and cloud providers prepare for generative AI and agentic workloads.The figures released by IDC provide insights into the speed with which the level of investment in physical infrastructure is rising. By Q4 2025, the expenditure reached $89.9 billion, representing a growth of 62 % year-on-year; total expenditure for the whole year was $318 billion. Most of the expenditure in Q4 was due to servers, which accounted for 97.6 % of total Q4 spending. IDC estimates that AI infrastructure investment will exceed $487 billion in 2026 and cross the $1 trillion mark by 2029.Lenovo’s results illustrate the reality of this transition. AI-related revenue across both enterprise infrastructure and consumer AI PC devices increased 60% to $9.3 billion, which is 35% of total revenue. Its Infrastructure Solutions Group has also been growing, whereas its Solutions and Services Group produced additional revenue stemming from AI.This matters to the global market for artificial intelligence since the $2.59 projection on global AI spending made by Gartner is gradually becoming a reality through hardware and service sales. Servers, networking devices, storage, and support services are all important for AI models to function. This turns the AI boom into an even larger cycle of technology investment.The same boom is squeezing the PC businessThere is a catch for hardware makers. The AI buildout is increasing demand for memory, putting pressure on the same components used in PCs.According to Gartner, the costs of DRAM and SSD would increase by 130% by the end of 2026. Consequently, PC prices will increase, and global PC shipments will drop by approximately 10.4%. IDC is less optimistic, with a projected drop of 11.3% in PC shipments combined with an increase in average selling prices of 18.3%.This leaves Lenovo in the position of maneuvering through both sides of the AI cycle. Higher spending leads to demand for its servers, which causes the cost of its PCs to rise. Because of this, Lenovo has to depend on revenue from its faster-growing businesses in AI infrastructure, devices, and services to fund its traditional PC business.The changes are starting to show in its figures: AI-related revenue is now responsible for over one-third of the total group revenue. This allows Lenovo to take advantage of the explosive growth of investments in AI despite rising costs of components putting pressure on device shipment and pricing.The larger lesson is that AI might be entering a more complex phase. The first wave was all about acquiring computing power. The next one will be influenced just as much by the costs of creating computing power as it would be by demand for it.Lenovo’s results get a reality check from competitorsThe AI infrastructure growth of Lenovo can be put into perspective by looking at the companies identified as Lenovo’s competitors in the IT Infrastructure and the IoT market by Gartner. Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) can provide meaningful benchmarks but do not take the focus away from Lenovo.Dell’s latest quarter showed just how powerful the AI-server cycle has become. Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue surged 181%, while AI-optimized server revenue jumped 757%. HPE also reported strong demand, with Cloud & AI revenue up 23%, server revenue up 33% and networking revenue up 148%. HPE ended the quarter with a record $5.9 billion AI Systems backlog.The data provides solid support to Lenovo’s core claim: spending on AI infrastructure has moved beyond the use of GPUs and entered the realms of servers, networking, and other components of the data center stack. However, an additional complication arises for Lenovo because its main business area, PC manufacturing, has already been negatively impacted by the increased cost of AI components.HP Inc.’s fiscal third-quarter results on August 26 will provide another read on the PC market. Its latest quarter showed Personal Systems revenue rising 13% despite a 7% decline in unit volumes, suggesting higher prices are already helping offset weaker shipments.Lenovo’s quarter gives a signal for the worldwide AI market that goes beyond its own profits. The projected spending of $2.59 trillion on AI is rapidly being reflected in the revenues of businesses involved in creating the necessary infrastructure to ensure the operation of AI on a larger scale. However, the same investment causes supply chain problems that can lead to an increase in costs and slowing down of the adoption of the technology. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter.