Crude Oil (CL) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Tue (Aug 11)Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX:CL1!MyAlgoIndexBias: September WTI settled at 82.13, up 3.95 or 5.05 percent, and closed the electronic session higher still at 82.30, above its own settle. Crude opened at 78.42, set its low at 77.79 inside the first hour and never revisited it, finishing at roughly 99 percent of the 77.79 to 82.38 range on 234,852 contracts. The advance was supply-driven and it built through the afternoon as reporting on Middle East transit and on refinery damage in North Africa hardened. Price now sits above the five, twenty, fifty, one hundred and two hundred day averages for the first time in this sequence, though the twenty-day at 81.83 and the one-hundred-day at 81.52 are only a short distance beneath, so the constructive stack has little margin. Directional strength is accelerating on the shorter windows, reading 24.76 on nine days against 15.93 on twenty, with the positive line above the negative on every window. Medium-window stochastics remain in the lower third of their range, with the fourteen-day percent-D at 16.04, which argues the move is not yet stretched. Against that, price has closed directly into the heaviest near-term overhead supply. Bias is constructive with moderate conviction, and the entire next session hinges on acceptance above 82.38. Resistance: 82.14, two standard deviation resistance 82.15, eighteen day average crossing 82.30, prior week high and volume node 82.38, session high, the decision level 83.01, fifty percent retracement of the four week range 83.03, three standard deviation resistance 83.87, mid stochastic reference 84.54, 38.2 percent retracement from the thirteen week high, forty day average stall 85.48, 38.2 percent retracement from the four week high 87.72, upper stochastic reference 89.65, extended stochastic reference 93.50, one month high 95.30, thirteen week and fifty two week high Support: 81.83, twenty day average 81.52, one hundred day average and moving average convergence stall 81.36, third pivot resistance 81.21, fifty percent retracement of the thirteen week range 80.98, one standard deviation resistance 80.09, 61.8 percent retracement from the fifty two week low 80.07, second pivot resistance 79.94, nine day average 79.73, mid relative strength reference 79.12, first pivot resistance and eighteen day average stall 78.42, session open 78.18, previous close 77.83, pivot point 77.79, session low 77.75, five day average 77.06, forty day average 76.88, first pivot support 76.12, four hour demand node 75.59, second pivot support 74.64, third pivot support 74.00, prior week low Primary Setup: Long continuation, taken only on a fifteen minute close above 82.38 followed by a pullback that holds 82.14. Entry 82.40 to 82.65, no entry before 09:45 ET and no chasing an opening gap above 83.00. Stop 81.45, beneath the 81.52 convergence, which is a structural level rather than a monetary one. Targets 83.01, then 84.54, then 85.48, scaling one third at each and moving the stop to entry at the second. Measured from the midpoint of the entry zone, risk is 1.07 and the blended risk to reward across the three exits is approximately 1 to 1.7. The failed breakout is the alternate. A rejection at 82.38 that produces a fifteen minute close below 81.52 opens a short from 81.35 to 81.15 with a stop at 82.05 and objectives at 80.09, then 79.12, then the 77.83 pivot. Stand aside if the session opens above 83.50, if price oscillates inside 81.83 to 82.38 without a fifteen minute close beyond either edge, or after 15:30 ET. Expected range for the session is 79.60 to 84.60 as a working band, with a one average true range statistical envelope of 77.76 to 86.50. Size to the envelope, plan inside the band. Note the calendar. Tuesday is light for energy, carrying only a tentative monthly outlook report at 12:00 ET. Wednesday is dense, with two monthly agency reports, the inflation print and the weekly inventory count all landing inside seven hours. Any position established Tuesday should be closed or halved before Wednesday opens.