EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: The Range Has Repriced, Now the Market MEuro / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:EURUSDMaxAOEUR/USD has now completed the move back through the upper half of the daily range. The important development is not simply that price rallied from 1.1350 into 1.1550. It is **how** that move occurred. The lower part of the range repeatedly failed to produce sustained bearish continuation. Price continued to reject lower prices, eventually displaced through the internal resistance around 1.1460–1.1480, and has since maintained delivery in the upper half of the structure. From an EXODUS perspective, the market has moved from one liquidity condition into another. The question for this week is whether buyers can continue facilitating price above the current range, or whether the market first needs to redistribute and retrace before another expansion. My most probable draw of liquidity remains **above current price**, into the 1.1580–1.1600 region. After that, I become considerably more interested in a return back into the range. --- ### The macro environment The broader FX environment remains unusually important here. The ECB left its policy rates unchanged at its July meeting, with the deposit facility remaining at **2.25%**, the main refinancing rate at 2.40% and the marginal lending facility at 2.65%. The Governing Council continues to stress that policy will remain data-dependent rather than committing to a predefined path. () At the same time, the ECB's June projections revised euro-area inflation materially higher, with headline inflation expected to average **3.0% in 2026**, largely because of higher energy costs. This keeps the European rate outlook relatively restrictive even as growth risks remain present. () That backdrop matters for EUR/USD because the market is no longer trading a simple story of aggressive ECB easing against persistent US tightening. The relative policy differential is becoming more dynamic, which creates exactly the kind of environment where price can remain constructive without delivering in a straight line. --- ### Something more interesting is happening underneath the FX market There has also been a significant development in international currency operations over the last two weeks. The United States and Japan jointly intervened to support the yen, with the US unusually **selling euros rather than dollars** as part of the operation. Reuters reported that the action differed from the traditional multilateral G7 approach to FX intervention and highlighted increasingly bilateral management of currency instability. () The move reportedly caught ECB officials off guard because the euro transactions were executed without prior consultation with the European central bank. () That does not provide a direct directional trading signal for EUR/USD. It does, however, tell us something important about the current market structure. Currency liquidity is actively being managed at the **central-bank and reserve-management level**, while geopolitical considerations are influencing which currencies institutions are willing to sell to facilitate those operations. This is considerably more useful than reducing every move on the chart to a “liquidity sweep.” --- ## Liquidity is a condition One of the principles behind EXODUS is that liquidity should not be treated as a horizontal line that price is programmed to attack. Liquidity represents the market's ability to execute size. Banks, asset managers, corporations, central banks and systematic participants continuously introduce orders into the market. Dealers then internalise, warehouse, hedge or transfer that exposure depending on their inventory and available counterparties. Recent BIS data reinforces how large this underlying system has become. Foreign-currency credit denominated in US dollars reached approximately **$14.7 trillion** at the end of Q1 2026, while euro-denominated foreign-currency credit reached around **€5.1 trillion**. Euro-denominated foreign credit was growing at roughly 12% year-on-year. () The ECB is also preparing a new euro liquidity facility for non-euro-area central banks from Q4, allowing eligible institutions access to as much as **€50 billion** against qualifying euro-denominated collateral. () This is the institutional layer behind the charts. Price moves because the market continuously searches for conditions in which large flows can be executed. The candles are simply the footprint. --- # EXODUS interpretation The previous several weeks provide a good example. EUR/USD spent most of July trading between approximately: **1.1350 → 1.1480** There were repeated injections from the lower portion of that range. Initially, these were only observations. A wick is not bullish simply because it rejects lower prices. The important question is whether those injections eventually produce **consequence**. They did. Price eventually expanded through the 1.1460–1.1480 resistance array and, rather than immediately collapsing back beneath it, continued towards the upper section of the larger daily range. That changed the delivery. We have now transitioned from asking: **“Can buyers remove 1.1480?”** to: **“Can buyers maintain execution above 1.1550–1.1600?”** That distinction matters. --- # Current range The larger structure I am working with is approximately: **Range low:** 1.1350 **Equilibrium:** ~1.1460–1.1470 **Range high:** ~1.1580–1.1590 EUR/USD is currently trading around **1.1550**, meaning price is already positioned deep within the premium of the current range. That significantly changes the quality of potential long positions. The bullish move may still have room. But the location is no longer attractive for blindly buying. --- # Weekly bias My immediate weekly bias remains: ### **Bullish into 1.1580–1.1600 first.** This is currently my most probable **DOL**. The market has already demonstrated bullish delivery from the lower boundary and has not yet completed a meaningful test of the external highs above the present range. I therefore expect price to make an attempt towards that upper liquidity before a larger retracement becomes attractive. But this is where the distinction between **direction and execution** becomes important. I can have a bullish DOL without wanting to buy EUR/USD at 1.1550. Those are two completely different questions. --- # Scenario 1: Expansion through 1.1600 If buyers are still capable of facilitating higher prices, I want to see: 1. The current internal highs consumed. 2. Price trade through approximately **1.1580–1.1600**. 3. Genuine displacement beyond the range rather than only a wick. 4. Acceptance above the former range high. 5. A subsequent retracement that fails to re-enter the range materially. That would tell me that the current structure is no longer the active range. The market would effectively be establishing a new area of value higher. In that scenario, I would begin looking towards previous daily structure around: **1.1620–1.1650** and potentially beyond if the macro environment continues supporting euro demand. --- # Scenario 2: Liquidity is accessed, but price cannot continue This is currently the scenario I find more interesting from an execution perspective. EUR/USD trades through the highs around **1.1580–1.1600**, activates the orders resting above the range, but fails to obtain sufficient execution capacity to continue higher. This is where I would begin watching the response. Not because “buy-side liquidity was swept.” But because a large quantity of marketable buying may enter the market above the highs. If that demand is met by sufficient opposing supply and the market cannot maintain higher prices, the liquidity event can become the foundation for a reversal. Then I want consequence: **Access liquidity → failure of continuation → bearish displacement → inability to reclaim the high.** That would create a much more compelling short-side condition. --- # Where could price return? The first meaningful downside reference would be the former breakout area around: **1.1515–1.1530** Below that, the most important area becomes the equilibrium of the larger range around: **1.1450–1.1470.** This is the area I currently have marked as the centre of the structure. If the upper DOL is completed and EUR/USD begins rotating lower, this becomes a natural location for the market to rebalance. It would also allow us to assess something important: **Has former resistance genuinely transitioned into support?** If it has, a retracement into equilibrium could eventually create another high-quality bullish condition. If it hasn't, then the entire move above 1.1480 begins looking considerably less convincing. --- # Intraday execution This is where the weekly framework becomes useful for day trading. I am not entering simply because the daily chart is bullish. I want the intraday market to tell me when the higher-timeframe idea is actually being delivered. Early in the week, while price remains beneath the upper DOL, I will primarily be interested in bullish continuation if London or New York creates: **retracement → absorption → bullish displacement → continuation towards the daily objective.** Once 1.1580–1.1600 has been accessed, my behaviour changes. I stop assuming continuation. At that stage, I observe whether the new liquidity entering the market can actually produce another expansion. If it cannot, the lower-timeframe sequence can transition: **Bullish delivery → failed continuation → bearish displacement → retracement → short execution.** That is the trade. Not the sweep itself. --- # Why this matters One of the easiest mistakes traders make is treating every liquidity level as a destination and every destination as a reversal. Neither is correct. A liquidity event simply creates **information**. When stops above a high trigger, they become market orders. Those orders require counterparties. What happens afterwards tells us about the underlying condition. If price continues aggressively higher, those orders helped facilitate continuation. If price immediately fails and is accepted lower, the market is telling us that opposing interest was capable of absorbing that flow. EXODUS focuses on the **consequence of the event**, rather than the label attached to it. --- # What I am watching this week The framework is relatively simple. **1.1580–1.1600** Primary upside DOL. I expect this area to be challenged while bullish delivery remains intact. **1.1515–1.1530** Immediate support and first area I want defended if the bullish structure is healthy. **1.1450–1.1470** Range equilibrium and the most interesting retracement area if the upper DOL is completed. **1.1350** Structural range low. A return here would represent a much deeper deterioration of the current bullish condition. --- # Final perspective EUR/USD has already done the difficult part. It absorbed repeated selling near the lower boundary, broke through the internal resistance and successfully repriced towards the upper end of the range. Now the market must prove something different. It must prove that it can **leave the range**. My expectation is for the remaining liquidity above **1.1580–1.1600** to be challenged before I become interested in a meaningful rotation lower. But once price arrives there, prediction becomes secondary. I want to observe the interaction. Can buyers consume the available offers and establish value above the range? Or does the influx of buying provide exactly the execution required for larger participants to distribute exposure and rotate price back towards equilibrium? That is where the next piece of information will come from. **Observation → Structure → Delivery → Execution → Review.** The DOL gives me a destination. The liquidity condition tells me what is possible. Delivery tells me when the market agrees. And only then do I execute.