3 min readAug 10, 2026 06:11 AM IST First published on: Aug 10, 2026 at 06:11 AM ISTCumulative rainfall deficiency in the current southwest monsoon season (June-September) has reduced to 11.5 per cent, from 38 per cent in June and 22.8 per cent till July 15. The interesting part about this seeming turnaround is that the dreaded El Niño was only in a weak-to-moderate phase in June. Yet, not a single rain-bearing low-pressure system (LPS) was formed, as against a normal average of three stretching over 11 days for that month. July, by contrast, not only saw four LPSs develop (normal is three). It also recorded 24 LPS-active days (normal: 14). As a result, despite El Niño becoming a moderate-to-strong event, the month registered a 2.4 per cent all-India rainfall surplus. The monsoon situation thus, far from worsening (the India Meteorological Department had predicted below-normal precipitation for July), has revived.That revival has also helped narrow the overall gap in progressive area sown under kharif crops from 20.8 per cent till the first week of July to 2.9 per cent at month-end. The rains post mid-July have boosted late plantings, including pulses, soyabean, sesamum and cotton, that were significantly lagging behind. Moreover, they have been lifesaving for the already sown crops facing moisture stress from the monsoon’s prolonged break. But for the recent showers, even those crops would have suffered stunted vegetative growth. In short, kharif hasn’t been the unmitigated disaster that many were fearing after a dry June and amid concerns over an intensifying El Niño. For now, things look manageable. Even in fertilisers, the shortages haven’t been dire. Production and imports of urea have, in fact, been higher in April-June 2026 over April-June 2025.AdvertisementThat said, the standing kharif crop needs a couple of good spells of rain in the second half of this month and early September. The Met Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for the entire second half of the monsoon season, on the back of a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions. With El Niño expected to turn into a “very strong” event during October-September and persist through the next quarter, the effects could be felt in the upcoming rabi or winter-spring crop as well. Also, El Niño’s impact is known to come with a lag. The government cannot afford to take its eye off the weather. Proactive supply-side management will remain key.