SPX Daily: Build the Structure Before Reading the Headlines

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SPX Daily: Build the Structure Before Reading the HeadlinesS&P 500SPCFD:SPXheavydiligenceBefore I start building trading scenarios for the week, I want the larger market structure mapped. That begins with the daily chart. The goal here is not to predict Monday’s open or find an options entry. The daily gives me context: where price has already been accepted, where it has expanded, and where important structural areas remain if the current move succeeds or fails. SPX recently broke above the larger Area of Agreement shown on the chart and left an open gap beneath the current price. That gives me several immediate reference points. Around 7,760 is the upper structure price is currently testing. Around 7,700 is the first meaningful lower reference. Below that sits the open gap around the low 7,600s, followed by the much larger prior Area of Agreement. That is the map. Now I add the news. The market enters the week following a powerful technology-led rally. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 gained 5.75% over four sessions as technology and semiconductor strength, easing oil pressure and softer labor data helped push equities higher. But the coming week also contains several obvious sources of uncertainty. July CPI is scheduled for Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by July PPI on Thursday, August 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain another variable. Negotiations involving Iran and Oman were reportedly nearing a maritime agreement Sunday, but reopening the strait remains unresolved. None of those headlines tells me what SPX will do. They tell me where volatility might come from. That distinction matters. I prefer building the chart structure first because otherwise it becomes very easy to read a bullish headline and manufacture a bullish chart—or read a bearish headline and suddenly find reasons everything is about to collapse. The levels existed before the headlines. The news may become the catalyst that makes one of those levels matter. In Part 2, I’ll move to the hourly chart and turn this daily structure into three possible scenarios.