Trump's optimistic framing, pointing to sub-80 dollar oil and easing consumer pain, reads as an attempt to project reassurance rather than a clear signal that risk has actually receded. The more telling variable for price is the internal Iranian power struggle rather than anything coming out of Washington. If the Pezeshkian camp gains ground and a Strait of Hormuz deal is eventually signed, the path is toward softer prices and a lower geopolitical risk premium. But if the IRGC hardliners under Vahidi hold sway and the stalemate drags on or hardens into fresh confrontation, prices skew firmer given the volumes still moving through the strait under informal, revocable arrangements rather than a settled agreement.Trump is choosing to wait Iran out economically rather than pull the trigger again, even as Tehran raises the price of reopening the strait and its own leadership splits over what to do next.Summary:Trump told Axios he is prepared to let economic pressure build on Iran rather than order a return to major combat operationsHe described Iran as in very bad shape economically, unable to pay its troops, with the naval blockade worsening the crisisTrump noted oil near 75 dollars a barrel is easing pain for US consumersA Strait of Hormuz traffic deal between Iran, Oman and the US has stalled after appearing close to announcementIran's Supreme National Security Council added new conditions for reopening the strait, including an end to US threats, a permanent end to hostilities against Iran and its allies, and lifting the blockadeUS officials point to a widening split inside Tehran between President Pezeshkian's camp, which wants a deal, and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi's camp, which rejects concessionsRoughly 8 million barrels a day continue moving through the strait's southern lane in coordination with the US militaryPresident Trump indicated on Sunday that he is willing to let economic pressure on Iran continue building rather than order a fresh round of military strikes, even as Tehran continues to defy Washington's demands. The comments, made in a brief interview with Axios, mark a notable shift from just a week earlier, when Trump was reportedly close to ordering a return to major combat operations.Trump framed the standoff as a waiting game. He said Iran is in very bad shape economically, unable to pay its own troops, and that the US naval blockade has deepened that crisis. With oil trading just above 75 dollars a barrel, he added that American consumers are feeling less pain from the conflict, reducing the urgency to escalate. Asked about the standoff, Trump likened it to a long running contest that will eventually resolve in Washington's favour.The remarks came as a US brokered agreement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, negotiated among Iran, Oman and the US, appeared to stall after mediators had expected an announcement earlier in the week. Iran's Supreme National Security Council instead issued a fresh list of conditions on Saturday, including a demand that the US never threaten or insult Iran, a permanent end to hostilities against Iran and its regional allies, and a full withdrawal of naval forces from the area, alongside calls for war compensation and sanctions relief.US officials say the new demands reflect a widening rift inside the Iranian regime, with President Masoud Pezeshkian's camp pushing for a deal to avert economic collapse while IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi's faction resists any concessions. Despite the impasse, roughly 8 million barrels a day are still moving through the strait's southern lane under informal coordination with the US military, a flow Washington is looking to expand in the absence of a formal agreement. Vice President Vance described the standoff as still in its middle stages, with diplomatic, economic and military tools all in play as the administration weighs its next move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.