机器人能拯救老龄化的日本吗?

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HANNAH BEECH, KIUKO NOTOYA2026年8月7日西西川町樱花种植者协会负责人金子光哉使用机器人为樱花园除草。 The color of the cherry blossom hovers between pink and white. The blooms peak briefly. It’s hard to explain why Japanese love the sakura. But they do, deeply.樱花的颜色介于粉红与雪白之间。花期短暂,转瞬即逝。很难解释日本人为何如此钟爱樱花,但他们确实爱得深沉。Robots do not appreciate the soft evanescence of the sakura. Nor do they understand why a snowbound town in northern Japan has dedicated itself to the cultivation of a winter variety.机器人不懂得欣赏樱花稍纵即逝的柔美,它们也不明白,为什么日本北部一个冰雪覆盖的小镇会致力于培育一个冬季樱花品种。But the residents of Nishikawa have discovered — at least they thought they had discovered — that they need robots for their sakura. There are not enough workers in town. The average age of a Nishikawa farmer is 73. Who else will work in the most depopulated town in one of the most depopulated prefectures in one of the most depopulated nations on earth, if not for an amalgamation of aluminum, steel and hard plastic?但是,西川町的居民们发现——至少他们自认为发现——他们的樱花需要机器人。镇上的劳动力已经严重不足。西川町农民平均年龄高达73岁。日本是世界上人口减少最严重的国家之一,山形则是日本人口下降最快的县之一,西川町又是山形人口减少最严重的小镇,如果不依靠由钢铝和硬塑料构成的机器,还能靠谁来干活呢?“We had to do something,” said Mitsuya Kaneko, the head of the Nishikawa cherry blossom farmers’ union, whose parents, aged 75 and 84, still plod through the snow to prune and package winter sakura in a largely unheated shed. “We cannot just die out.” “我们必须想点办法,”西川町樱花种植者协会负责人金子光哉(音)说道。他的父母一个75岁,一个84岁,至今还要艰难地走过积雪,在一个几乎没有取暖设施的棚子里修剪和包装冬季樱花。“我们不能就这样坐以待毙。”Mr. Kaneko, at 53 years old, is tech savvy. He pushes his glasses down his nose to peer at his iPhone from which he can check the temperature and humidity of his sakura orchards, as well as catch a livestream of cherry trees being cherry trees. After watching his hometown shrink and its farmers stoop ever steeper with age, Mr. Kaneko worked with the local government to bring technology to Nishikawa.53岁的金子光哉精通科技。他把眼镜沿着鼻梁推下来,凝视着iPhone屏幕——通过手机,他可以查看樱花园的温度和湿度,还能观看樱花树生长的实时监控。目睹家乡人口不断缩减、农民随着年龄增长腰背愈发佝偻,金子光哉与当地政府合作,将科技引入西川町。西川町的居民致力于培育一种深受日本人喜爱的冬樱品种。Agricultural officials installed sensors detecting minute temperature variations to determine the best time for harvesting the winter sakura. (That turns out to be after 500 hours of temperatures below 8 degrees Celsius, or 46 degrees Fahrenheit.) They deployed grass-mowing robots. And as their triumphal act, they ordered a robot that would allow the farmers to more easily transport and load bundles of cherry blossoms onto trucks. Pochi, as the robot was named, was to arrive last November.农业官员安装了能够探测微小温度变化的传感器,以确定采收冬樱的最佳时机。(结果表明,最佳时机是在气温低于八摄氏度的环境下,累计达到500小时之后。)他们部署了除草机器人。作为最大的创举,他们还订购了一台机器人,能让农民更轻松地运送成捆的樱花枝,并装载到卡车上。这台被命名为“波奇”的机器人原本应该在去年11月到货。Then the farmers of Nishikawa waited. November came and went. In a nation that has made punctuality a high art form, the delay was embarrassing. Pochi finally arrived on Christmas Day, a cheery yellow container on wheels that looks less like a sophisticated robot and more like an oversized Lego construction. The price tag was about $15,000.随后,西川町的农民们开始了漫长的等待。11月过去了。在一个将守时视为至高艺术的国家里,这样的延期令人尴尬。“波奇”终于在圣诞节当天抵达——一个带轮子的亮黄色箱子,与其说像一台精密的高科技机器人,不如说更像一块超大号乐高积木。它的售价约为1.5万美元。Since then, well, that’s the story. For all the buildup and excitement from robot boosters and local politicians from Yamagata Prefecture eager to uncork central government funds for rural revitalization, Pochi has mostly slumbered unloved in a corner of a greenhouse. The prevailing attitude toward the robot, which can negotiate mountain terrain and carry 600 pounds, was encapsulated by Hideki Shida, 84, another Nishikawa farmer. Even as Mr. Kaneko showed off how Pochi, with the slightest flick of a wrist, followed him like an obedient dog, Mr. Shida trundled past conspicuously, pushing stacks of cherry blossoms on a metal cart, his body angled with effort.从那以后,嗯……故事是这样的。尽管机器人支持者,以及山形县那些渴望从中央政府申请农村振兴资金的地方政界人士大造声势,充满热情,“波奇”大部分时间都备受冷落,在温室的一个角落里沉睡。从在84岁的西川町农民志田秀树(音)身上,当地人对这款能够翻越山地、承重约270公斤的机器人的普遍态度充分可见:尽管金子光哉正在得意地展示,只需他手腕轻轻一挥,“波奇”就能像听话的狗一样跟在身后,志田秀树却推着一辆装满樱花枝的金属手推车醒目地从旁缓慢经过,身体因用力而微微前倾。“I do things the old way,” he said, casting a dismissive look at Pochi.“我还是靠老办法,”他不屑地瞥了“波奇”一眼。Not one of Mr. Shida’s three children is a farmer. He is widowed. He lives alone and farms alone, hiking up to his mountain fields to shovel the sakura out of the snow.志田秀树的三个孩子没有一个务农。丧偶后他独自生活,独自务农,徒步爬上山里的田地,用铁锹将积雪中的樱花枝铲出来。Snow Country雪国Not so long ago, Nishikawa slumbered in the snow. Mr. Kaneko’s parents remember how the family farmhouse in the mountains above the town was inaccessible for months at a time, even into the early 1970s. The only way to get anywhere was by sled.就在不久前,西川町还沉睡在冰雪之中。金子光哉的父母还记得,即使到了20世纪70年代初,他们位于镇子北部的山间农舍每年总有几个月与世隔绝,唯一的出行方式就是坐雪橇。By the 1980s, Nishikawa, like much of the rest of Japan, had grown fast. Families moved to the snowy backcountry, eager to cultivate farmland. Japan’s agricultural ministry helped to protect them from overseas competition. Throughout rural Japan, cement mixers churned to make roads, tunnels and bridges. Yamagata Prefecture — Yamagata means “mountain shape” — dedicated itself to growing luxury crops, like La France pears and perfect cherries. Japan’s boom times were symbolized by the $100 melon, a literal fruit of postwar prosperity.到了20世纪80年代,和日本许多其他地方一样,西川町经历了快速增长。许多家庭迁入积雪覆盖的偏远山区,热切地开垦农田。日本农林水产省提供帮助,保护他们抵御海外竞争的冲击。在日本各地的农村,水泥搅拌机轰鸣着,修建道路、隧道和桥梁。山形县致力于种植高级农作物,比如法兰西梨和精品樱桃。标价100美元的甜瓜象征着日本的繁荣时代,堪称战后繁荣的真正果实。Japan’s economic bubble burst in 1992, the same year that the bullet train finally arrived in Yamagata. Discount shops offering goods for 100 yen, about 80 U.S. cents back then, popped up alongside the vendors of expensive fruit. Japan’s farming population, which had already dwindled because of industrialization and economic development, shrunk further, just as Japan’s demographics fell off a cliff.1992年,日本经济泡沫破裂,同年,新干线终于开通到山形县。昂贵水果摊贩的旁边涌现出销售100日元(当时约合80美分)商品的折扣店。由于工业化和经济发展,日本的农业人口本就已经萎缩,而随着日本人口结构的急剧变化,农业人口进一步减少。Nishikawa lost its high school in 1991. The last supermarket closed about 20 years ago. Factories for camera lenses and cellphone parts both closed. The country’s birthrate hit a record low in 2025, and the Japanese population, now 123.8 million, is projected to fall below 100 million by 2060.1991年,西川町唯一的高中关闭。最后一家超市也在约20年前关门。相机镜头厂和手机零件厂相继停产。2025年,日本出生率创下历史新低;目前日本人口为1.238亿,预计到2060年将降至1亿以下。山形县的地方政界人士一直热切希望争取中央政府用于振兴农村的资金。西川町町长菅野大志在某活动上发表讲话。他已为“波奇”及其他“智能农业”创新项目争取到了4万美元资金。金子光哉正在使用机器人“波奇”搬运物品。Across Yamagata, local officials have tried out various robot — and robot-aspiring — solutions to the precipitous demographic decline. The 48-year-old mayor of Nishikawa, Daishi Kanno, secured $40,000 in funding for Pochi and other “smart agriculture” innovations. Like other prefectural leaders, he has chosen technology over another potential fix to the nation’s labor shortage: welcoming more foreign workers. The Japanese government is cracking down on visas. In all of Yamagata, there are only 145 foreign farm laborers.在整个山形县,地方官员一直在尝试多种机器人及准机器人的解决方案,以应对人口锐减。48岁的西川町町长菅野大志为“波奇”及其他“智慧农业”创新项目争取到了4万美元的资金。与其他县内官员一样,为缓解劳动力短缺,他选择的方法是科技,而非另一个潜在方案——接纳更多外籍劳工。日本政府正在收紧签证政策。整个山形县仅有145名外籍农业劳工。“Finding people who can take over for the next generation is difficult,” Mr. Kanno said. “很难找到能接班的下一代,”菅野大志说。Cherry Picking采摘樱桃金子光哉的父母——84岁的庆一郎(右)和75岁的富佐子——正在处理樱花枝条。和当地许多农民一样,他们年事已高,仍在辛勤劳作。金子光哉父母的家。镇上废弃房屋正日益增多。The promise of robots has excited Yamagata researchers for years. The prefecture produces about 70 percent of Japan’s cherries, and there is a chronic shortage of harvesting labor. Searching for solutions, a local fruit magnate contacted Yuichi Tsumaki, a professor of robotics and mechatronics at Yamagata University, about designing a cherry-picking robot. The government kicked in with funding.多年来,机器人的前景一直让山形的研究人员感到兴奋。该县出产了日本约70%的樱桃,但采收劳动力却长期短缺。为了寻找解决方案,当地一位水果大亨联系了山形大学机器人与机电一体化教授妻木勇一,探讨设计一款采摘樱桃机器人。政府也为此提供了资金支持。“I said I was not confident, but we would try,” Professor Tsumaki said.“我说我没有把握,但我们可以试一试,”妻木说。He explained the delicate mechanics of cherry picking: Without the stem, the harvested fruit spoils quickly, yet picking it with the stalk depends on the gentle rotational pressure of a human hand.他解释了采摘樱桃过程中精细的力学原理:如果摘掉果梗,收割下来的水果很快就会变质;但要带着果梗摘下需要依靠人手轻柔的旋转。In anticipation, Zenyu Saito, the fruit magnate, had trained his cherry trees to grow on trellises, like grapevines, so that a robot could more easily access the fruit. Mr. Saito’s farm is now filled with flat-topped cherry trees that dangle fruit at a pleasing, consistent height. All that is missing is the cherry-picking robot. He had given Professor Tsumaki four years to develop the robot. It has now been 10.为了配合这一计划,水果大亨斋藤善右(音)已经将他的樱桃树修剪成类似葡萄藤一样在棚架上生长,以便机器人更容易接触到果实。现在,斋藤的农场里种满了平顶樱桃树,果实悬挂在令人愉悦的一致高度上。万事俱备,只欠采摘机器人。他最初给了妻木四年的时间来研发这台机器人,但现在已经过去了十年。One morning in his laboratory, the professor looked decidedly nervous. After a delay of several months, he and his student researchers were about to show what a decade of robot innovation could do for Yamagata. One graduate student donned a face mask, black gloves and a hard hat. He bumped his head on metal scaffolding then carefully attached five magnetized fake cherries to a fake tree. A robotic arm slid forward and plucked the ersatz cherries with their stems. Professor Tsumaki gave a small bow.一天早晨,在他的实验室里,教授明显有些紧张。在延期了几个月之后,他和作为研究人员的学生们即将展示这十年的机器人创新能为山形县带来什么。一名研究生戴着口罩、黑手套和安全帽。他头顶着金属棚架,小心翼翼地将五个带磁性的假樱桃固定在一棵假树上。一只机械臂滑向前方,连带着果梗摘下了这些假樱桃。妻木微微鞠了一躬。On the second attempt, the robot stalled with a cherry suspended in midair. On the third, the robot got stuck in a fruitless spiral, plucking the air with nothing in its gripper. The fourth effort failed, too. On the fifth, five fake cherries were again harvested.第二次尝试,机器人停了下来,一颗樱桃悬在半空中。第三次,机器人陷入了徒劳的空转,夹爪在空中什么也没抓到。第四次尝试也失败了。到了第五次,五个假樱桃再次被成功摘下。斋藤善右将他的樱桃树修剪成类似葡萄藤一样在棚架上生长,以方便机器人采摘。山形大学机器人与机电一体化教授妻木勇一设计了这款樱桃采摘机器人。Mikito Misawa, one of the graduate students, said he was not very hopeful that robots would save Yamagata’s agriculture. Ever since his family invested in his robotics studies, his father, a cherry farmer, has advised him to leave the prefecture for better job opportunities.研究生三泽美希人(音)表示,他对机器人拯救山形农业并不抱太大希望。自从家里出资供他学习机器人技术以来,他那位种樱桃的父亲就一直劝他离开山形县去寻找更好的工作机会。“He says there’s nothing good about here,” Mr. Misawa said, of his father’s perspective.“他说这地方没什么好的,”三泽在谈及父亲的观点时说。Mr. Saito, the fruit magnate, is now 80. He is weak and on kidney dialysis. Helped by his grandson, he hobbled out to his flat-topped cherry trees and surveyed his fruit empire, 16 generations strong. His son, who is taking over the business, isn’t interested in robots.水果大亨斋藤今年已经80岁了。他身体虚弱,正在接受透析治疗。在孙子的搀扶下,他步履蹒跚地走到他的平顶樱桃树前,审视着他那传承了16代的水果帝国。他那即将接手生意的儿子对机器人并不感兴趣。Last year, at a global cherry summit in Yamagata, Chinese researchers showed interest in Mr. Saito’s flat-topped cherry orchards. They had heard about the cherry-picking robot and wanted to see it in action.去年,在山形县举行的全球樱桃峰会上,中国研究人员对斋藤的平顶樱桃园表现出了兴趣。他们听说了采摘机器人的事,想看一看它的实际操作。“I saw on TV the other day that China’s robots are incredibly advanced, right?” Mr. Saito said. “I heard that, so I didn’t show them Yamagata University’s harvesting robot because I thought they might use that technology.”“前几天我在电视上看到,中国的机器人非常先进,对吧?”斋藤说。“我听说了这件事,所以我没有给他们展示山形大学的采摘机器人,因为我觉得他们可能会利用那项技术。”Japan may have once led the world in robotics, creating the first humanoid robot in 1973, but it has fallen far behind China, with its soccer-playing, somersault-flipping machines. In March, a robot developed by Nanjing Agricultural University trundled through strawberry fields in China, picking fruit with 84 percent accuracy, using A.I. models built on the rotational movements of sea anemones, at least according to Chinese state news media, which tends to report on domestic innovations in glowing terms. The researchers are tweaking the robot’s cloud data platform for tomatoes and cherries next. Chinese robots already harvest lychees and goji berries.日本或许曾经在机器人领域引领全球——它在1973年创造了世界上第一个人形机器人,但现在它已经远远落后于中国,中国的机器人能踢足球、能翻跟头。据中国国家新闻媒体报道(中国媒体往往倾向于用充满赞美的词汇报道国内的创新),今年3月,南京农业大学研发的一款机器人穿行在中国的草莓田中,利用基于海葵旋转运动建立的AI模型采摘水果,准确率高达84%。研究人员下一步正准备针对西红柿和樱桃微调机器人的云数据平台。而中国的机器人已经能够采摘荔枝和枸杞了。Even Pochi, the supposed savior of Nishikawa’s cherry blossom farmers, harbors an embarrassing origin story: The robot was made in South Korea.就连被认为是西川町樱花农救星的“波奇”,也有着一个令人尴尬的出身:这台机器人是在韩国制造的。The Next Generation下一代Pochi isn’t the only unloved robot in Nishikawa. A grass-cutting robot meant to trim the sakura orchards keeps getting foiled by weeds. Local authorities say they are experimenting with a deployment of pesticide-spraying drones, but things haven’t progressed far. And an earlier, clunkier version of Pochi — a machine that doesn’t even merit a name — is even less respected than its cousin is.在西川町,“波奇”并不是唯一受冷落的机器人。一台用于修剪樱花园的除草机器人总是被杂草缠住。地方当局表示,他们正在试验部署喷洒农药的无人机,但进展不大。而“波奇”的早期版本——一台甚至不配拥有名字的笨重机器——比它的兄弟更不受人待见。Still, one local farmer likes Pochi very much. Osamu Shida, 74, named the robot after the Shiba dog he once owned. He, practically alone among the workers, stacks his cherry branches on the machine and marvels at how easy it is to transport his sakura.尽管如此,当地一位农民却非常喜欢“波奇”。74岁的志田修(音)用他曾经养过的一只柴犬的名字给这台机器人命了名。在所有工人中,几乎只有他把樱花枝堆在机器上,并惊叹于运输樱花变得如此轻松。“I feel like Pochi’s papa,” Mr. Shida said. “I like to have Pochi follow me around.”“我觉得我像‘波奇’的爸爸,”志田说。“我喜欢让‘波奇’跟在我身边。”志田君江拿着用塑料膜包裹的樱花。74岁的志田修回到西川家中。和其他农民不同,他喜欢机器人“波奇”。志田太太在家中烤红薯,她的孙女们准备去上空手道课。Late one afternoon, Mr. Shida was out in his fields with his snow blower, clearing a field for future planting. The snow hung high above him, more than 30 feet tall in places. As the sun set, Mr. Shida returned to his family farmhouse. The air was cozy from a wood-burning stove and the toasty aroma of sweet potatoes being roasted by his wife, Kimie, an ethnic Korean originally from China whom he met through a matchmaker 25 years ago. Her granddaughters, also born in China, sprawled on the couch, scrolling on their phones, like preteens anywhere.一天傍晚,志田在田里用除雪机为未来的种植清理场地。雪比他人还高,有些地方超过九米厚。夕阳西下,信田回到了他的农舍。屋里燃木壁炉散发出惬意的气息,他的妻子君江(音)正在烤红薯,空气中弥漫着焦香。君江是一名出生在中国的朝鲜族人,25年前通过相亲与他结识。她同样出生在中国的孙女们懒洋洋地坐在沙发上划着手机,就像世界各地青春期前的孩子一样。“We are old already,” Mrs. Shida said. She has had surgeries on her knees and her hands. Everything aches.“我们已经老了,”志田太太说。她的膝盖和手都做过手术。浑身上下都在痛。Unlike most others in Nishikawa, though, the couple hopes they can pass on the farm to the younger generation. Perhaps they’ll export winter sakura across Asia. They are certainly less wary of robots.然而,与西川町的大多数人不同,这对夫妇希望能把农场传给年轻一代。也许他们会将冬季樱花出口到整个亚洲。显然,他们对机器人的戒心要小得多。“Maybe we should just retire and live a peaceful life and look out at the snow,” Mrs. Shida said.“也许我们该退休了,过平静的生活,看看外面的雪景,”志田太太说。Mr. Shida grunted.志田咕哝了一声。“Not yet,” he said. “We still have work to do.”“还不行,”他说。“我们还有工作要做。”志田在西川一间仓库里处理樱花枝。摄影:Chang W. LeeHannah Beech是《纽约时报》记者,常驻曼谷。她报道亚洲新闻超过25年,主要进行深度和调查报道。Kiuko Notoya是一名常驻东京的记者/研究员,报道日本新闻。Chang W. Lee为《纽约时报》担任摄影师长发30年,报道过世界各地的事件。他目前常驻首尔。欢迎在Instagram上关注他:@nytchangster 翻译:晋其角、经雷点击查看本文英文版。