Gold extends the rally after the soft NFP, but the US CPI could wipe out all the gains

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended into new highs yesterday as a soft NFP report on Friday led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations.  Overall, the data wasn’t as bad as the headline number suggested. The significant loss of government jobs made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. The labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.Today, the price action might be mostly rangebound or we could see some hedging into the US CPI tomorrow that could result in some weakness. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in gold, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give gold another boost to extend the rally into new highs. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold has almost reached the major trendline around the 4,500 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,800 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish structure. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 4,200 support next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the minor trendline, while the sellers will need to wait for either a break below the minor trendline or a rally into the major one. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.