Bitcoin Realized Price: The Perfect Purchase Price?Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSwissquoteIf you regularly read my posts on TradingView (I manage the Swissquote account on TradingView every day), then you already know that bitcoin has been moving since its record high of October 6 at $126,000 within its cyclical bear market, which is part of its famous 4-year cycle. Bitcoin follows its own cycle and its own fundamentals, even if correlations have a marginal influence. The good news is that bitcoin’s cyclical bear market is very well documented from a statistical perspective. I have written extensively about this subject and will continue to do so. The most important data point to remember is that this bear market lasts an average of 1 year, or 365 days. Naturally, this is only an average: the bear market can last a little longer or a little less. Therefore, 2026 is a bear market year, while the next 3 years should be bullish years for bitcoin. This is the basic principle of its so-called 4-year cycle. An average of 365 days means that the low established on July 1 at $57,500 is unlikely to be the final low of the bear market. One final low is therefore still missing, and this last low should occur between mid-August and the beginning of next October. This final low could be established around bitcoin’s realized price. But what exactly is realized price for BTC? The realized price is one of the most interesting fundamental indicators in bitcoin on-chain analysis. Put simply, it corresponds to the average price at which all bitcoins currently in circulation were last moved on the blockchain. It is therefore not simply the price displayed on exchanges: it is a measure of the market’s average cost basis. The chart below, sourced from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, represents bitcoin’s realized price, i.e. the average purchase price of bitcoin holders, a price that has historically provided a zone for cyclical BTC bear-market lows. This is precisely what makes this indicator particularly interesting in a bear market. When bitcoin’s price approaches the realized price, a significant portion of the market gradually returns toward its average acquisition price. Historically, this zone has often played a major role in the formation of major cyclical lows. However, an important distinction must be made: the realized price is not necessarily a horizontal technical support level that price must touch precisely. It should rather be viewed as a fundamental valuation zone around which selling pressure and capitulation can gradually become exhausted. The analysis below reminds us that August and September are statistically unfavorable months for bitcoin’s price in terms of seasonality, meaning that this period could see the final low of bitcoin’s cyclical bear market. The chart below shows bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio, with a final phase of weakness below $60K expected. 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