Gold — Stepwise Distribution and 4250 Next?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDMihai_IacobOn Friday, Gold closed at 4341 after an extremely strong bullish week, with price rising around 3,000 pips from the low made on Monday to Friday's close. After the normal correction that followed on Monday, with Gold dropping to the 4312 area, the bullish move resumed aggressively and eventually pushed price above the 4400 psychological level on Tuesday. Since then, however, something has changed. Gold has pushed above 4400 several times, but each and every attempt failed to hold the gains. And this is where things become interesting. Looking at the highs made on Tuesday, Wednesday, and during last night's Asian session, we can see that they are all extremely close to each other. This strongly suggests the presence of a significant supply/order block in that area. But, in my opinion, the more important clue is not simply where Gold stopped. It is how it got there. The entire rise this week has been characterized by textbook reversals exactly from obvious support levels. Price breaks higher, pulls back into support, finds buyers, and then pushes higher again. That looks bullish on the surface. But beyond what is obvious — even to my cat — this type of price action can also suggest something very different: STEPWISE DISTRIBUTION. Instead of one obvious distribution range where sellers unload everything at once, large positions can potentially be distributed gradually, while the market is still making new highs and giving buyers enough confidence to keep entering. That would explain why: - Gold keeps making attempts above 4400; - buyers are repeatedly attracted into the move; - every push higher is quickly rejected; - the highs are clustering in almost the same area; - and the market is repeatedly finding support just below, creating the appearance of continued strength. In other words, the bullish structure itself could be part of the distribution process. Obviously, this remains a hypothesis, not a confirmed distribution pattern. And as always, the market will decide whether the interpretation is right or wrong. My scenarios At this moment, I am working with two main scenarios, and both are bearish: 1. First bearish scenario — 4370 breaks If Gold manages to break and hold below the 4370 area, the week's low, just above 4300, becomes exposed. That would be the first important confirmation that the current structure is losing strength. 2. Second bearish scenario — 4300 gives way If the weekly low is also broken, then the next obvious area of interest is the 4250 zone. That would turn what currently looks like a consolidation near the highs into a much more meaningful reversal structure. And what if I'm wrong? Of course, there is also the scenario in which this entire interpretation is wrong. And that's perfectly fine. I don't need to predict the future. I need to know what would invalidate my view. For me, the answer is clear: Gold needs to stay above 4450. If price breaks above the current highs and, more importantly, accepts and stays above 4450, then the stepwise-distribution hypothesis loses much of its relevance and the bullish trend remains in control. Until then, however, I prefer to respect what price is showing me rather than simply chasing another breakout. Let's see what Gold does next.