In case you missed it: US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expectedThe US CPI report yesterday didn't offer much of any surprises, with the key estimates all falling in line with expectations. With core annual inflation sitting with the consensus and headline annual inflation easing a touch, it should offer up some added comfort for the Fed - at least for the time being.All else being equal, the onus is upon the data to prove to markets that there should be a rate hike in September.In that lieu, the backdrop of a continuation of the US-Iran conflict is pretty much a prerequisite. Otherwise, it would be easy for the Fed and Warsh especially to argue a case of not needing to raise interest rates.So as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that should keep oil prices ticking and keep the pressure on the bond market too. Higher yields will be a key spot to watch, one that could infect broader markets if it continues to go unchecked. In the case of 10-year yields in the US, a firm push above 4.70% may yet be the key catalyst to set things off.To keep things short, the more benign US inflation numbers yesterday isn't the be all and end all for the September argument. Sure, market pricing is leaning a bit more towards there being no rate changes now but it's not a given just yet. Traders are now pricing in just ~35% odds of a rate hike, compared to it being about a coin flip before the data.So, what's next?The focus and attention will now turn to the Fed communique at the next major event this month. That being the Jackson Hole symposium. The event takes place on 27 to 29 August, with the key theme this year being "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy".As is usually the case, the agenda is not yet released but all eyes will be on Fed chair Warsh's speech to see if he will drop any clues on a move in September.But considering his push for a shift in forward guidance stance, it may not be likely that we will get anything firm from Warsh at the end of August.So while markets will be primed and turning a keen eye on the event in Jackson Hole, the more decisive factor for markets will arguably be the US CPI report for August. And that will come on 11 September, just five days before the FOMC meeting and during the blackout period.If the US-Iran conflict remains as it is until then, expect markets to have to keep guessing with this sort of middle-range pricing on what the Fed will do for next month. That until the next set of inflation numbers help to settle the score. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.