Southern Company (SO) LONG — 12H ALMA Setup (WR 82% · avg RR 1.2Southern CompanyBATS:SOGoldfinch_song█ SETUP SO · 12H · long only. (Context: Southern Company — regulated Southeast electric/gas utility · Georgia Power / Plant Vogtle · AI data-center load beta — trades with utilities risk appetite and power-demand headlines, not a discretionary “buy the OpenAI deal” call.) ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 4/3, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (SO 12H): Win rate 82% · profit factor 2.8 · max drawdown 29% Avg winning trade +6.3% · avg losing trade −5.2% Typical hold ~61×12H bars on winners — utilities mean-reversion grid on the 12H Averaging template · 231-trade sample ═ █ WHY NOW Fresh 12H ALMA long on the 10 Aug 13:30 UTC bar ~$92.70 — lot 1 of 4. Bar-close arm into a post-earnings / convertible wash in regulated utilities, not a size-up on the OpenAI load headline. Hard stop −10% from fill ~$83.4. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in stays 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, if lower bars qualify. Mark ~$91.5. ═ █ MACRO Sector: SO = regulated Southeast utility (Georgia / Alabama / Mississippi Power) — beta to retail power demand, large-load / data-center contracts, and utility valuation multiples. Tape (22 Jul – 10 Aug): Georgia Power–OpenAI ~3.2 GW 25-year supply (Project Camellia) hit late Jul; Q2 adj. EPS beat with a revenue miss and cautious Q3 guide; early-Aug ~$2.4B convertible notes added dilution overhang into the drift from Jul highs toward ~$91–93. Execution is 12H ALMA Averaging on the fill bar — not an OpenAI, PSC, or convert forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - Tester: 82% WR · PF 2.8 · avg win +6.3% vs avg loss −5.2% (avg RR 1.2) · 231-trade sample — hit-rate edge with bounded −10% stop - EMA — 4H below-stretch: 4H Below · Cur S:15 vs Avg S:10.7 · +3.2% Dev — time overheated under the 4H mean = mean-reversion fuel on the Idea ladder - ALMA — 1D / 1H / 3D SHORT OVERHEAT-S: 1D S:9 vs SAvg:3.7 · 1H S:5 vs 4.9 · 3D S:4 vs 3.0 — below-band time stretch supports a discount Averaging arm - SMC — 4H bull FVG pocket: FVG Enter Bull / Raid Bull ~$92.1–93.3 (6–7 Aug) · bounce up B53–54% · break down Br46–47% (n=1602–1771) — mild bounce-up hold skew near the arm - SMC — daily breaker bull: 1D OB Enter Breaker Bull ~$92.9–93.1 (5–6 Aug) · bounce up B51% · break down Br49% (n=102) — near 50/50 demand print at the fill shelf Negative factors - EMA — 1H / 3D / 1W below still young: 1H S:2 vs Avg S:6.5 · 3D S:3 vs 5.9 · 1W S:2 vs 5.6 — sell-time not overheated on every clock; lower probes possible - ALMA — 4H SHORT still young: 4H SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg:3.6 — execution-adjacent grid not fully stretched with the slower OVERHEAT-S clocks - SMC — weekly bear OB overhead: 1W OB Enter Normal Bear ~$94.5–95.6 (Jul) · reject down B44% · break up Br56% (n=54) — supply still above; break-up path can align with repair, but the shelf caps clean trend reclaim - First lot only (1 of 4) — thin cushion; mark already soft vs entry - No VWAP Touch row on this board — probability layer is SMC/TL here Takeaway: 12H ALMA + 82% WR / 1.2 avg RR justify a first-lot arm near ~$93 into a 4H below-stretch and multi-TF ALMA OVERHEAT-S, with Support Break bounce-up skew (63/37) and mild bounce-up at the 4H bull FVG (53–54 / 46–47), but young 1H/3D/1W below-sessions, weekly bear OB ~$95, and contested GEO keep this a regulated-utility repair grind after the convert wash — not a clean AI-load trend reclaim; risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: 12H ALMA holds · bounce-up at ~$92–93 demand digests toward the weekly ~$94–96 supply shelf if utilities stabilize · adds only on qualifying lower closes. Bear case: break down through the ~$92 bull FVG / Support Break pocket · 12H ALMA flips · −10% from ~$92.70 toward ~$83.4 · utility / convert gap through the cash book. Chart: SO 12H — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.