ALLO: The Futility analysis was not futileAllogene Therapeutics, Inc.BATS:ALLOwithout_worriesSYMBOL: NASDAQ:ALLO | DIRECTION: LONG | TIMEFRAME: 10-Day Published: August 2026 A futility analysis is exactly what it sounds like. Halfway through a trial, an independent committee looks at the data and decides whether continuing would be a waste of everyone’s time and money. Most companies approach it the way you approach a dental appointment. Allogene went through theirs in April. Seven of twelve patients on cema-cel cleared minimal residual disease. Two of twelve did so on observation alone, 58% against sixteen. The FDA responded in July by granting both RMAT and Fast Track designations. The stock is at $2.06. It was $55 in 2020. On the above 10-day chart ALLO has based above its 2025 lows with the moving average forecast turning upward for the first time in six years. Four reasons now exist to be long. They include: 1) Six years of decline has finally stopped. Price bottomed near $0.94 in 2025 and has spent the year building a base above it. The moving average forecast has turned upward, the first time it has done so since 2020. The SMA fill beneath price has flipped from red to green. This is not a breakout, and I am not going to pretend it is one. It is a downtrend that has stopped going down, which is the necessary first step and considerably more than this chart has offered at any point in the last six years. 2) This is first-line treatment, not last resort. ALPHA3 is testing cema-cel as first-line consolidation in large B-cell lymphoma. Patients who have finished initial chemotherapy but still carry detectable disease. Almost every other CAR T therapy on the market is approved for patients who have already failed two or three lines of treatment. Moving to first line multiplies the eligible patient population is several times over. Circulating tumour DNA fell by a median of 97.7% by day 45. That is the disease being removed rather than delayed. 3) No CRS. No ICANS. No GvHD. No steroids. For anyone unfamiliar with CAR T therapy, those four acronyms are the reasons it is normally administered in a specialist hospital with intensive care nearby. Cytokine release syndrome, neurotoxicity, graftversus-host disease, and severe infection. Allogene reported none of them, no treatment-related serious adverse events, and no patient requiring tocilizumab or steroids. Approximately a third of screenings and infusions took place in community cancer centres rather than academic hospitals. A CAR T therapy that can be given at a local clinic is not a slightly better version of the existing product. It is a considerably larger market. 4) $423.6 million in the bank and funded into 2029. Cash, equivalents and investments stood at $423.6 million at June 30th, 2026, against total liabilities of $113.9 million. Net of everything owed, roughly $310 million. The market capitalisation at $2.06 is about $678 million, so the market is paying somewhere near $368 million for a pivotal trial in first-line LBCL with RMAT and Fast Track attached, an autoimmune programme behind it, and no need to raise money until 2029. Quarterly losses are narrowing, from $50.9 million to $42.7 million year on year. They are spending less and getting more. Now the honest bit, and there is quite a lot of it Twelve patients per arm. Twelve. That is not a data set, it is a rounding error with a press release attached. Seven versus two could reverse entirely as enrolment grows, and interim analyses have flattered plenty of drugs that later failed. The timeline is long. Enrolment completes end of 2027, the interim survival readout lands mid-2027, and the primary endpoint is not until mid-2028. That is two years of holding an unprofitable biotech on the strength of nineteen patients. Aye... And the dilution has been severe. Weighted average shares went from 219 million to 329 million in twelve months. That cash pile did not appear by magic. Existing shareholders paid for it, by owning half as much of the company as they used to. The runway into 2029 is real, and so is the price that was charged for it. Targets Will leave that for members. A 10-day close below $1.60 breaks the base and invalidates the thesis. The crowd Allogene was one of the great cell therapy stories of 2020. Pfizer money, celebrity founders, offthe-shelf CAR T for everyone. Then it fell 96%, and everyone who bought the story stopped telling it. Look at how the market has treated the News. The interim data landed in April and the stock spiked to $4.30 before giving most of it back. The FDA handed over two designations in July. Q2 results in August showed narrowing losses and a runway into 2029. The stock is at $2.06. Recent earnings releases have averaged a negative price reaction despite being categorised as positive events. The information is arriving and nobody is acting on it. So....Twelve patients, a two-year wait, and a company that has destroyed 96% of its value. I am aware of how this reads. I've also worked in the pharmaceutical industry on immunisation therapy, am fully aware of process and hurdles that needed to be crossed. Positioning prior to the News is my preference. The trial passed the analysis designed to kill it, the regulator responded within three months, the safety profile is better than anything else in the category, and there is $423 million in the bank to see it through to 2029. The market is pricing all of that at roughly nothing. It will keep doing so right up until the moment it does not. Good luck. Ww Type: Speculative fundamental long / clinical-stage biotech | Timeframe: 18–36 months ===================================================== Disclaimer: This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Allogene Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with no approved products and no product revenue, and it is currently loss-making. Clinical-stage biotech investments carry a risk of total capital loss. The Company has materially diluted existing shareholders over the past twelve months and may do so again. Financial figures are taken from the Company’s Q2 2026 results for the period ended 30 June 2026. Always do your own research.