SpaceX: Why SPCX will hit $120-5/share Friday 8/14/26Space Exploration Technologies CorpBATS:SPCXDontListenToThisClownHere are 7 key reasons why SpaceX is likely to finish Delayed supply from the Aug 6 unlock finally hitting Transfers and settlement take time. Shares that became eligible on/around Aug 6 are only now (or tomorrow) freely tradable in volume for many holders. Early investors and employees who were waiting for clean settlement can start selling into any strength or simply into the open. That creates a real, if staggered, increase in available supply right as the market is digesting the prior rally. Post-squeeze profit-taking and exhausted covering The stock ran ~40%+ off the lows in a few sessions largely on short covering (34% → ~11%). That buying fuel is largely spent. Residual holders who bought the squeeze or institutions that rode it higher have an incentive to lock in gains, especially with another unlock (Aug 20) still hanging over the tape. Once covering slows, the path of least resistance can shift lower. Put skew / richer put premiums as a signal of hedging demand The elevated put premiums relative to calls (the $145 put mid notably higher than the call when the stock was near $145) show that institutions and others are paying up for downside protection. That demand does not guarantee a drop, but it means there is already capital positioned for, or willing to protect against, lower prices. If selling begins and the stock starts to slide, those put holders can become sellers of the underlying or of more puts, adding pressure. In a cascading scenario the hedging demand that created the skew can turn into actual selling flow. Max pain and high call open interest around $140 For the Aug 14 weekly, max pain has been sitting meaningfully lower (around the mid-to-high $120s). Large call open interest clustered near $140 can act as resistance or a soft pin. If price opens softer or fails to hold above 140, dealer hedging of those calls can contribute selling. Once that level breaks, the next obvious technical and options reference is lower. Gamma regime change if the flip breaks Current net GEX is positive and the zero-gamma level is near ~$131.66. Above it, dealers dampen moves. If selling is strong enough to push price through that flip with volume, the regime flips: dealers become short gamma and start selling into the decline to re-hedge. That can accelerate the move toward the put wall (~$125) and, if momentum continues, toward $120. The put skew is consistent with the kind of positioning that can help fuel that acceleration once the flip is lost. Upcoming Aug 20 unlock overhang Even though the next large tranche is still a week away, markets often price the risk in advance. Some holders may sell ahead of it rather than wait. Combined with any residual Aug 6 shares still coming online, the supply narrative stays negative. Valuation and lack of profitability as background pressure The stock is still trading at extreme multiples with negative earnings. In a risk-off or “digestion” environment, that background can make downside moves sharper once they start, because there is less fundamental support to catch falling knives.