A Regime-Conditional Framework for Rolling Correlation and LeadGoldOANDA:XAUUSDsulistyardiXAUUSD XAGUSD BTCUSD https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7200580 A Regime-Conditional Framework for Rolling Correlation and Lead-Lag Analysis among XAUUSD, XAGUSD, and BTCUSD A Literature Synthesis with an Illustrative Case Study Abstract Gold (XAUUSD), silver (XAGUSD), and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) are commonly grouped as inflation and macroeconomic hedges, yet their statistical relationship is neither uniform nor stable over time. This paper synthesizes prior academic and industry evidence on the correlation structure among these three assets and proposes a regime-conditional analytical framework-combining rolling Pearson correlation across multiple window sizes with cross-correlation function (CCF) lead-lag analysis-for evaluating which asset, if any, functions as a leading indicator for the others, and under which market regime. Reference values compiled from prior sources indicate that the gold-silver correlation has historically ranged between 0.68 and 0.95 on a one-year rolling basis (averaging near 0.80-0.92 across independent studies), while the gold-Bitcoin correlation over 2018-2023 has been substantially weaker, at approximately 0.62. To illustrate the practical relevance of a regime-conditional view, this paper examines the late-December 2025 divergence episode, during which gold posted its strongest annual gain in decades, silver amplified both the rally and the subsequent correction, and Bitcoin declined roughly 30% from its October peak-demonstrating that the three assets can decouple sharply even while headline correlation statistics remain positive over longer windows. The paper argues that price leadership between gold and silver is plausibly regime-dependent: silver appears to lead during momentum/breakout phases owing to its higher beta and more speculative order flow, whereas gold appears to lead during pure safe-haven shocks owing to its deeper institutional liquidity. The proposed framework and its associated open-source computational procedure are offered as a template for future empirical validation using live historical data. Keywords: Rolling Correlation, Cross-Correlation Function, Lead-Lag Analysis, XAUUSD, XAGUSD, Bitcoin, Intermarket Analysis, Safe Haven, Gold-Silver Ratio, Regime-Conditional Framework