GOLD - Almost Perfect Prediction GoldOANDA:XAUUSDVIAQUANTOur last Gold major breakout idea from July 12th was just completed with a great deal of accuracy. The only reason it was not a perfect prediction is that it took about a week longer than originally anticipated. View that idea here: That idea played out with a very high degree of accuracy, and I want to walk you through it. Reviewing What Played Out The first thing to note is the 4H 200 MA (blue). Once price broke out of the downtrend (white trendline), it battled the 200 MA with no confirmed closes above it (red circles). However, once it finally confirmed a secondary candle above the 200 MA, price retested it (green circle) and began a strong rally to the upside. In my last post I predicted the breakout rally would bring price to $4,460 to $4,540, provided it extended that high by the first week of August. Since it took an additional week to develop, price only reached $4,450, but landed exactly at the red trendline I had outlined in that previous idea. Where Things Stand Now Since then, Gold has seen a pullback, compounded by the 4H bearish divergence that had been building with the RSI. Because of this, an additional pullback to the 4H 200 MA or lower should be expected. If price breaks above the red trendline instead, this becomes a completely different conversation about how high the breakout could actually extend. Until that point, it is safe to assume this was the next macro lower high being put in for Gold's broader trend. The higher timeframe closes will confirm whether that lower high is already in, or whether price will find the fuel to break above the red trendline and stage a much larger rally. The Weekly Chart Is What Matters Most Right Now Gold is currently sitting at a pivotal spot, and next week's candle will be trend defining. There are three things to watch on the current weekly chart: candlestick formation, moving averages, and the RSI. Candlestick Formation + Moving Averages Gold is currently forming a gravestone doji on the weekly. Not only is it forming that pattern, but it is doing so directly at the 21 and 50 MA. The last time a similar setup occurred was on June 15th, and price saw over a 5% decline the very next week. Market participants still have tomorrow's price action to try to save this weekly candle, but even if bulls manage to push price up and negate the gravestone doji, they will still likely be battling a close below the 50 MA, which could still point to a reversal either next week or the week after. RSI The final takeaway from the weekly chart is the RSI. It is currently battling the median line at 50. This median line acted as a major buying opportunity in March 2026 (green arrow) and a major selling opportunity in June 2026 (red arrow). Right now trend momentum is still sitting below that line, which makes it more likely to act as another selling opportunity before momentum flips back to the downside. This does not have to occur, but at the moment it remains the more likely outcome, so keep a close eye on it.