ERIC SCHMITT, HELENE COOPER2026年8月12日随着战争的推进，伊朗已成为一名更加老练的对手，在将战场扩大到中东大部分地区的同时，也学会了如何规避美国的防空系统。 Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesDuring five intense days last month, Iran launched waves of drones and missiles at U.S. troops on three bases in Jordan, hoping to break through the formidable American air defenses.上个月，在持续五天的激烈交锋中，伊朗向驻扎在约旦三个基地的美军发动了一轮又一轮无人机和导弹袭击，试图突破美国强大的防空系统。Using advanced missiles that can suddenly change course, Iran pummeled the bases’ defensive systems, forcing the Americans to burn through scarce supplies of Patriot interceptors.伊朗使用能够突然改变飞行轨迹的先进导弹不断猛攻这些基地的防御系统，迫使美军不断消耗爱国者拦截导弹本已捉襟见肘的储备。On the fifth day, the Iranians broke through.第五天，伊朗撕开了防线。A missile struck prefabricated housing units at one of the bases on July 17, killing three U.S. soldiers and wounding more than 100. Pentagon officials later acknowledged that scores of other troops were injured and several aircraft damaged in attacks in Jordan that week.7月17日，一枚导弹击中了其中一处基地的预制住宅单元，造成三名美国士兵死亡，逾100人受伤。五角大楼官员随后承认，当周在约旦的一系列袭击中，另有数十名士兵受伤，数架飞机遭到损毁。“We shot down almost all the missiles,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said when asked about the fatal attack. “One leaked through.”在被问及这起致命袭击时，美国国务卿鲁比奥说：“我们击落了几乎所有导弹。有一枚漏网了。”The strikes reveal a deadly confluence of two important trends: First, Iran has become a more skilled adversary as the war has progressed, learning how to evade U.S. air defenses as it widened the battlefield to include most of the Middle East and enlisted allies like the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq.这些袭击暴露出两个重要趋势交织在一起所造成的致命后果。首先，随着战争持续，伊朗已经成为一个更加老练的对手。它逐渐学会了如何规避美国的防空系统，同时不断扩大作战范围，将中东大部分地区都纳入战场，并动员也门胡塞武装和伊拉克民兵等盟友参与其中。Second, the Pentagon’s supply of interceptors has quickly dwindled, with the weapons becoming more precious each day of the off-and-on conflict.其次，五角大楼的拦截弹供应迅速枯竭，在这场时断时续的冲突中，这些武器一天比一天珍贵。The two trends drive home a point that has slowly emerged in the months since the war started, that a global superpower with a mighty military footprint can still be held at bay by a lesser adversary willing to wage asymmetric warfare to find any advantage it can.这两大趋势印证了一个自数月前战争爆发以来逐渐显现的事实：一个拥有强大军事力量的全球超级大国仍然可能被一个愿意打非对称战争、寻求一切可乘之机的弱小对手所牵制。The Pentagon has used more than 1,500 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war and has fewer than 1,700 interceptors left, according to two people briefed on the stockpile levels who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military details. The United States produced about 600 interceptors in all of 2025.据两位了解库存情况、因讨论敏感军事细节而要求匿名的人士透露，五角大楼在这场战争中已使用了超过1500枚爱国者拦截弹，剩余不足1700枚。美国在2025年全年共生产了约600枚拦截弹。The rapid depletion is occurring as Iranian forces study another war. In Ukraine, Russia has used combinations of ballistic and cruise missiles to distract Ukrainian air defenses, and then rushed in drones.而就在伊朗部队迅速消耗美国拦截弹库存的同时，他们也在研究另一场战争所提供的经验。在乌克兰，俄罗斯使用弹道导弹和巡航导弹的组合来分散乌克兰防空系统的注意力，然后以无人机快速突袭。“The Iranians are making it more difficult on air defenses when you have a range of both missiles and drones coming in,” said Seth G. Jones, the president of the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.“当导弹和无人机同时来袭时，伊朗人正在让防空系统变得更加难以应对，”战略与国际研究中心防务与安全部主任塞斯·琼斯说。7月，美国总统特朗普、国防部长海格塞斯及其他美国官员出席在约旦一处空军基地阵亡美军士兵的遗体转运仪式。“They have effectively leveraged the Russian tactic,” he said, “to make it more difficult to protect across locations in the Gulf.”“他们实际上借鉴了俄罗斯的战术，”他说，“让美国更难以保护海湾地区各处的目标。”On a single day during that deadly week last month, according to two U.S. officials, American forces in the Middle East fired about 50 Patriot interceptors, which cost about $4 million each.据两名美国官员透露，在上月造成美军人员死亡的那一周里，仅其中一天，美军就在中东地区发射了约50枚爱国者拦截弹，每枚造价约400万美元。The Pentagon has continued to face a powerful threat, which it has tried to minimize, in the months since major combat ended in early April.自4月初主要战斗结束以来，五角大楼一直面临着一个强大的威胁，只是一直在试图淡化这一威胁。Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters on April 8 that Iran’s missile program was “functionally destroyed,” that its launchers and missiles were “depleted and decimated and almost completely ineffective.”国防部长皮特·海格塞斯4月8日在记者招待会上表示，伊朗的导弹项目已被“实质性摧毁”，其发射装置和导弹“已经消耗殆尽、遭到重创，几乎完全丧失作战能力”。Most of Iran’s missiles and launchers were stored in vast underground facilities that U.S. and Israeli forces heavily bombed during the first five weeks of the war. But Iran dug out many of those sites and resumed firing, bringing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill and threatening American troops in the region.伊朗的大部分导弹和发射装置此前都储存在庞大的地下设施中，美国和以色列军队在战争最初五周内对这些设施进行了猛烈轰炸。但伊朗随后疏通了许多被阻塞的设施，重新开火，使霍尔木兹海峡的航运几近瘫痪，并威胁到驻扎在该地区的美军。President Trump and his national security advisers assumed the fight would be short and would not jeopardize the Pentagon’s stockpiles of Patriot interceptors, said Vali Nasr, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际问题研究学院教授瓦利·纳斯尔表示，特朗普总统及其国家安全顾问原本认为这场战争会很短，不会危及五角大楼的爱国者拦截导弹库存。But Tehran, he and other Iran experts say, had been waiting for this moment since the conflict began more than five months ago. During a 12-day war in June 2025, Iran’s leaders had seen how quickly Israeli and American forces burned through ballistic missile interceptors to knock down barrages of Iranian drones and missiles.但他和其他伊朗问题专家表示，德黑兰自五个多月前冲突开始以来就一直在等待这一刻。2025年6月那场持续12天的战争中，伊朗领导人已经看到以色列和美国军队为了拦截伊朗发动的大规模无人机和导弹袭击，弹道导弹拦截弹的消耗速度之快。Iran’s deadliest strikes against U.S. forces in Jordan targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Azraq, a Jordanian military installation that the U.S. Air Force has increasingly used as a major hub for dozens of aircraft and several thousand service members.伊朗对约旦美军发动的最致命袭击目标是位于阿兹拉克的穆瓦法克·萨尔蒂空军基地。这是约旦军方的一处军事设施，美国空军近年来越来越多地将其作为一个重要枢纽，在那里部署数十架飞机和数千名军人。Many U.S. troops previously stationed in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were moved before and during the war to bases like Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan that were farther from Iran and deemed safer from drone and ballistic attacks.战争开始前及战争期间，许多原先驻扎在科威特、巴林、卡塔尔和阿拉伯联合酋长国的美军被调往约旦的穆瓦法克·萨尔蒂等基地。这些基地离伊朗更远，被认为更不容易受到无人机和弹道导弹的攻击。战争的前五周，美国和以色列轰炸了伊朗多处导弹基地，但伊朗随后疏通了许多被阻塞的设施并重新开火，使得霍尔木兹海峡的航运几乎陷入停滞。 Getty Images/Getty ImagesIn the days immediately after the strike on July 17, American military commanders strengthened air defenses in Jordan and elsewhere in the region, said a senior U.S. military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters but declined to provide more details.一名美国高级军方官员表示，在7月17日袭击发生后的几天里，美军指挥官加强了约旦以及该地区其他地方的防空力量。这名官员因讨论军事行动而要求匿名，他拒绝提供更多细节。U.S. military specialists who have also studied drone and missile attacks in Ukraine have been working with the military’s Central Command for months, sharing lessons learned from that campaign. Two of the three soldiers killed in Jordan were assigned to air defense units based in Germany that became part of that effort.同样深入研究过乌克兰无人机和导弹袭击的美国军事专家数月来一直与美军中央司令部密切合作，分享从乌克兰战场汲取的经验教训。在约旦阵亡的三名士兵中，有两人隶属于驻德国的防空单位，这些部队参与了上述合作。This new reality is having geopolitical consequences.这一新的现实正在产生深远的地缘政治影响。In late July, Mr. Trump asked Mr. Hegseth about the dwindling American weapons supplies, U.S. officials said, confirming reporting by The Washington Post.美国官员说，7月下旬，特朗普曾询问海格塞斯美国武器库存不断减少的问题，这印证了《华盛顿邮报》此前的相关报道。The Pentagon has maintained publicly that it does not have a shortfall. “Claims of U.S. munition shortages are false,” the chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement. “When the fake news media irresponsibly amplifies these lies, the real-world consequence is clear: Our enemies are emboldened to provoke — or attack — American troops.”五角大楼在公开场合始终坚称并不存在弹药短缺问题。“有关美军弹药短缺的说法纯属捏造，”五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔在一份声明中说，“当假新闻媒体不负责任地放大这些谎言，现实后果显而易见：我们的敌人将因此受到鼓舞，更敢于挑衅甚至主动袭击美国士兵。”In April, Iran shot down an American F-15E fighter jet over southern Iran with a shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile. Both the pilot and the weapons officer ejected. The pilot was rescued quickly, but the weapons officer was missing for nearly two days, hiding from Iranian security forces until U.S. Special Operations forces rescued him in a daring operation.今年4月，伊朗靠一枚肩扛式地对空导弹在该国南部上空击落了一架美军F-15E战斗机。飞行员和武器系统官均弹射逃生。飞行员被迅速救出，武器系统官却失踪了将近两天——他在伊朗安全部队的搜捕中东躲西藏，最终由美国特种作战部队在一次大胆行动中将其救回。In this case, Iran learned from Ukraine and deployed a swarm of drones in an area American fighter jets had penetrated, a senior U.S. military official said. In interviews with Pentagon officials, the crew said that the F-15E’s defensive countermeasures provided only half a second of warning before Iran hit the $60 million advanced fighter jet with a shoulder-fired missile.一名美国高级军方官员说，在此次事件中，伊朗吸取了乌克兰战场的经验，在美国战斗机已经进入的区域部署了无人机群。在与五角大楼官员的交谈中，机组人员表示，F-15E的防御反制系统只提供了半秒钟的预警，随后这架价值6000万美元的先进战斗机便遭到伊朗肩扛式导弹的袭击。Mr. Trump announced a “pause” in the fighting shortly after that incident. Military officials needed time to adjust to Iran’s new tactics, two military officials said.特朗普在该事件发生后不久宣布“暂停”战斗。两名军方官员说，军方需要时间来适应伊朗的新战术。4月8日，海格塞斯对记者表示，伊朗的导弹计划“已被实质性摧毁”。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesEven during breaks in fighting, those tactics have continued to evolve.即使在战斗暂停期间，这些战术也仍在不断演变。When the Houthi militia in Yemen entered the war last month, experts said it signaled Iran’s intention to force the United States and its allies to defend themselves from aerial attacks from all directions. Yemen is hundreds of miles south of Iran.专家表示，上个月也门胡塞民兵组织参战，表明伊朗有意迫使美国及其盟友应对来自四面八方的空中攻击。也门位于伊朗以南约2000公里处。International inspectors also believe that Iran is storing elements of its nuclear program in a heavily fortified underground complex in central Iran. The site, which the United States refers to as Pickaxe Mountain, is buried more than 300 feet beneath a mountain.国际核查人员同样相信，伊朗正将其核计划的部分组成储存在伊朗中部一处坚固设防的地下综合体中。美方将这一地点称为“镐山”，它位于一座山体下方的100米深处。And Iran has sent its troops and leaders to hide-outs scattered across the country, experts said.专家表示，伊朗已将部队和领导人分散隐藏到全国各地的隐蔽地点。“Where are they?” asked Mr. Nasr, of Johns Hopkins. “It’s not like they’re sitting in a place where you can bomb them. You don’t find them.”“他们在哪里？”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的纳斯尔问道。“他们不是坐在某个地方等着你去炸。你根本找不到他们。”Jonathan Swan对本文有报道贡献。Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。