RIVER AKIRA DAVIS, HISAKO UENO2026年8月10日When a 6.8-magnitude earthquake jolted southwestern Japan last week, its force mirrored the kind of seismic shocks capable of flattening cities and claiming hundreds or even thousands of lives.7月底，一场6.8级地震袭击了日本西南部，其威力堪比那种能够夷平城市、夺走数百甚至数千人生命的强烈地震。Yet across the island of Kyushu, the violent shaking destroyed or heavily damaged just a few hundred buildings. One week after the quake, the death toll was 38.但在九州岛各地，剧烈摇晃仅造成几百栋建筑物倒塌或严重受损。地震发生一周后，死亡人数为38人。In Kumamoto, the prefecture near the epicenter, seismologists and local officials credit painful lessons learned a decade ago, when twin earthquakes of similar scale ravaged the region, toppling more than 8,000 buildings and ultimately causing more than 270 deaths.在震中附近的熊本县，地震学家和当地官员认为，这得益于十年前惨痛教训所带来的改变。当时，两场规模相当的地震重创当地，导致8000多栋建筑倒塌，最终造成270多人死亡。Experts say the recent Kumamoto earthquake shared significant similarities — including its ground-shaking intensity, shallow depth and proximity to heavily populated areas — with the June tremors in Venezuela, which leveled coastal areas, killing more than 6,000 people.专家指出，此次熊本地震与今年6月委内瑞拉地震在多个关键指标上颇为相似——地面震动烈度、震源较浅以及靠近人口密集区。委内瑞拉地震将沿海地区夷为废墟，造成逾6000人遇难。八代市内的一处高架公路。这种结构经过专门设计，在地震中只会发生局部坍塌。“But we see that there are huge differences in the number of casualties,” said Katsuichiro Goda, a professor of earthquake engineering at Western University in Canada. Mr. Goda, who conducted field reconnaissance in Kumamoto after the 2016 quakes, credits much of that difference to how the prefecture has rebuilt over the past decade, including spending tens of billions of dollars on earthquake proofing.“但我们看到，两者在伤亡人数上存在巨大差异，”加拿大西安大略大学地震工程学教授五田胜一郎（音）说。2016年熊本地震后，合田曾前往当地开展实地考察。他认为，这种差异很大程度上归功于熊本过去十年来的重建工作，包括投入数百亿日元用于抗震加固。In the days following last week’s disaster, two colleagues and I traveled throughout Kumamoto. Damage was scattered across the region: Wooden homes had collapsed, roads were warped, and a shopping center gutted by a post-quake gas explosion stood in ruins.7月的地震发生后数日，我与两位同事走访熊本各地。整个地区到处都是受损的地方：木结构民宅倒塌、道路扭曲变形、一座购物中心因震后燃气爆炸被烧得只剩废墟。But from earthquake-proofed city centers, bridges and homes to communities trained in search and rescue, there were also clear signs of a region well prepared for the worst.但从经过抗震加固的城市中心、桥梁和住宅到具备搜救训练基础的社区，人们也能清楚地看到，这里已经为最坏的情况做好了准备。Vital Infrastructure至关重要的基础设施Perhaps the most striking example of this readiness was in Uto, a city of 35,000 situated near the quake’s epicenter. In 2016, the town’s five-story City Hall warped and partially collapsed, crippling local officials’ ability to coordinate disaster response during those critical first days.这种防灾能力最鲜明的例子也许就是位于震中附近、人口3.5万的宇土市。2016年，当地五层高的市政大楼发生倾斜并部分坍塌，导致地方官员在灾后最关键的几天里几乎无法协调救灾工作。宇土市政大楼在2016年的地震中曾遭受严重破坏，现已采用隔震技术重建。Municipal leaders designed a new City Hall, which opened in 2023, specifically engineered to remain standing through severe earthquakes. Even with last week’s epicenter less than five miles away, the concrete structure and its long stretches of glass windows stood unscathed.地方当局吸取教训，按照强震标准设计了一座新的市政大楼，于2023年竣工启用。即使距离此次地震震中不到八公里，这栋混凝土结构建筑和大片玻璃窗依然完好无损。Beneath the building was one of the secrets to its survival: a seismic isolation structure. In a dimly lit subterranean passage between the foundation and the building above, a web of rubber and steel absorbed and dissipated seismic energy, allowing the earth to shift below while the building above remained relatively still.大楼得以安然矗立的秘密之一就藏在它的地下——一套隔震结构。在地基与上层建筑之间那条昏暗的地下通道里，橡胶和钢材组成的网状结构吸收并消散了地震能量，下方土地发生位移时，上方建筑却保持相对静止。Shogo Mitsui, the mayor of Uto, explained that the new complex embodied a lesson from a decade ago: Critical city infrastructure must be focused on during earthquake-proofing so that essential services never lapse during a crisis.宇土市市长光井正吾解释说，这座新建综合体体现了十年前汲取的一个教训：城市关键基础设施必须成为抗震加固的重点，以确保危机期间基本服务永不中断。宇土市政大楼下方的隔震系统。“We have already been damaged once,” Mr. Mitsui, clad in blue and orange emergency response coveralls, said in an interview. “Because of that, the new building was designed with great consideration.” In the aftermath of the recent quake, Uto residents “have a base to rely on,” he said. “It leads to a sense of security.”“我们已经遭受过一次损失，”身着蓝橙两色应急救援制服的光井正吾在接受采访时说。“正因如此，新大楼在设计时经过了精心考量。”他表示，面对这次地震，宇土市民“有了一个可以依靠的地方”，“这会让人心里踏实”。The municipal center was buzzing with activity last Friday. With much of Uto cut off from running water, residents drew water from a well outside, while a local basketball team passed out bottled drinks to people waiting in line. Inside, displaced residents took shelter in the air-conditioned atrium.上上周五，这座市政中心里一片忙碌。由于宇土市大部分地区停水，居民们在大楼外的一口水井取水；当地一支篮球队向排队等候的人们发放瓶装饮料。大楼内部，失去住所的居民临时安置在带空调的中庭里。Community Training社区培训Across the towns and hamlets of Kumamoto, community leaders said that after the 2016 quake they had strengthened local response networks designed to act in the hours before emergency teams can arrive.社区负责人表示，2016年地震后，他们进一步强化了本地应急响应网络，以便在专业救援队伍抵达之前的关键数小时内迅速启动自救。志愿者为八代市居民运送物资。In Yatsushiro, one of the cities hit hardest by last week’s quake, two nursery school teachers overseeing an evacuation center described a well-planned disaster response. Designated emergency roles each year, they reported to a local school to launch operations even before city officials called.在此次受灾最严重的城市之一八代市，两名负责管理避难所的托儿所教师描述了一套规划周密的应急方案。由于每年都有预先指定的应急分工，甚至在市政官员发出指令之前，她们便已赶赴当地一所学校，启动应急工作。“Taking into account what happened 10 years ago, these were plans we all took seriously,” said Ayumi Miyazaki, one of the teachers.“考虑到10年前发生的事情，我们所有人都非常认真地对待这些预案。”其中一名教师宫崎步（音）说。In central-eastern Kumamoto, the village of Nishihara — nestled at the end of a road winding through mountains and rice paddies — conducts rigorous biennial disaster drills for all of its residents. Locals said they grew up being told that because they lived directly on top of active fault lines, a major earthquake would inevitably come.在熊本县中东部，西原村坐落在一条蜿蜒穿过群山和稻田的道路尽头。这里每两年都会组织一次严格的全民防灾演练，所有居民都要参加。当地人从小就被告知，他们的家园正好位于活跃断层之上，因此迟早会遭遇一次大地震。That reality struck in 2016, when Nishihara sat at the epicenter of the region’s largest quake. In the hamlet of Oogirihata, virtually every home collapsed, trapping nine residents. Tetsuya Sakata, a former community leader, recalled the neighborhood looking “as if bombs had dropped and flattened everything.”这一预言在2016年成真——西原村恰好处于该地区最强地震的震中位置。在大切畑这个居民点，几乎所有的房屋都倒塌了，九名居民被困。原社区负责人坂田哲哉（音）回忆，当时的村庄“就像被炸过一样，一切都夷平了”。西原村在2016年地震中曾遭受毁灭性打击，重建后已具备抗震和防滑坡能力。Just a year before that disaster, a village drill had focused on sawing through mock rooftops to extract trapped victims. When the real earthquake struck, local residents sprinted from house to house, peeling back ceramic tiles and carving entry points for rescuers to crawl through. Every resident was pulled out alive, earning Nishihara the moniker “the miracle village.”就在那场灾难发生前一年，村里进行了一次演习，专门演练了用锯子锯开模拟屋顶救出被困者的技能。当真正的地震降临，村民们从一家奔向另一家，掀开屋瓦，凿开入口，让救援人员得以爬入施救。所有被困居民均被活着救出，西原村由此赢得了“奇迹村”的美誉。Earthquakes come with the risk of blocking roads and cutting off the hamlet from emergency workers in Kumamoto’s capital. In 2016 and in last week’s quake, “we had to do what we could on our own,” Mr. Sakata said. “If we hadn’t conducted those thorough drills, lives could have been lost.”地震往往会引发道路阻断，让这片村落与熊本市的救援力量完全隔绝。2016年和此次地震中，“我们不得不自己想办法，”坂田说，“如果没有进行那些扎实的演练，可能会有生命损失。”Housing Codes住宅建筑规范Kumamoto’s resilience also owes much to the unseen engineering in its homes.熊本的抗灾能力也在很大程度上得益于住宅中那些肉眼看不见的工程设计。Driving for four days along the roads closest to the epicenter, the stark divide was visible: Virtually every home that collapsed appeared to be an older, traditional timber-frame house. Modern homes and recently built structures seemed almost entirely unscathed.在震中附近的道路上驱车行驶了四天，一个鲜明的对比显而易见：几乎所有倒塌的房屋，都是年代较久的传统木结构建筑。现代住宅和近年竣工的建筑则几乎完好无损。Nationally, Japan enforces some of the world’s most stringent seismic codes. With steel-anchored concrete foundations and heavy-duty metal connectors that lock building frames together, modern structures are engineered to withstand violent shaking.在日本全国范围内，政府执行着世界上最严格的抗震建筑规范之一。现代建筑采用钢材锚固的混凝土地基，以及能够将建筑框架牢牢连接在一起的高强度金属连接件，从而能够承受剧烈的摇晃。Since the 2016 disaster, prefectural and local governments in Kumamoto have offered subsidies for retrofitting costs to help homeowners reinforce frail wooden supports, and replace heavy ceramic tiles with lighter materials.2016年的地震灾害发生后，熊本县政府和地方政府开始为住宅抗震改造提供补贴，帮助房主加固脆弱的木质支撑结构，并将沉重的陶瓦屋顶更换为更轻便的材料。八代市的一家餐馆。地震中倒塌的建筑多为年代较久的传统木结构房屋。By 2024, roughly 90 percent of buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture met official national earthquake-resistance standards. Earthquake experts said this allowed the vast majority of homes to survive the 2026 quake even in areas built on unstable soil, “the consistency of tofu,” as one worker at a temple near Nishihara described it.到2024年，熊本县约90%的建筑已达到国家抗震标准。地震专家指出，这使得绝大多数住宅即便位于地质条件不稳定的地区——西原村附近一座寺庙的工作人员形容那里的土地“像豆腐一般”——也能够经受此次地震的考验。“If houses were constructed well, following the code in general, they behaved well,” said Mr. Goda, the earthquake expert. The survival of so many homes after last week’s tremor demonstrates that “improvements have been made.”“如果房屋建造得足够规范，大体上按照建筑规范来施工，它们就不会有问题。”地震专家五田胜一郎说。此次地震之后有如此多的房屋安然无恙，说明“这些方面已经取得了改善”。Challenges Ahead未来的挑战Even if the immediate destruction from the Kumamoto earthquake was lighter than feared, challenges remain.即使熊本地震造成的直接破坏比预想中要轻，但挑战依然存在。八代市民众在一所中学体育馆内避难。In 2016, a substantial portion of the overall death toll came not from initial building collapses, but from secondary health complications as evacuees succumbed to severe stress and prolonged stays in cramped shelters and cars.2016年，总死亡人数中有很大一部分并非来自最初的建筑倒塌，而是来自次生健康并发症——避难者在狭小的避难所和汽车中长期滞留，承受着巨大的心理压力，最终不治。As in 2016, evacuation centers lack basics. These include air conditioning amid blistering heat. Many facilities were also missing bedding, leaving many to sleep on hard gymnasium floors.与2016年一样，避难所依然缺乏基本物资，包括酷热天气里的空调。许多设施也缺少寝具，许多人不得不睡在坚硬的体育馆地板上。At an evacuation shelter in Yatsushiro, 69-year-old Eiko Ishibashi said that only two sets of bedding were brought to a facility serving roughly 280 households. “An old couple came and slept here overnight,” she said. “When they got up in the morning, they went back home saying they couldn’t sleep on the floor.”在八代市的一处避难所，69岁的石桥荣子（音）说，在一处服务大约280户家庭的避难设施，只送来了两套寝具。“有一对老夫妇过来，在这里住了一晚。”她说，“第二天早晨，他们起床后就回家了，说他们睡不了地板。”Yet amid the gaps, a deeply ingrained culture of mutual aid has stepped in. At the Yatsushiro shelter, middle school volunteers staffed the front tables to check in arrivals. Outside, aid groups distributed bento boxes.但尽管有种种不足，一种根深蒂固的互助文化仍发挥了作用。在八代市的避难中心，中学生志愿者在入口处值守，逐一为到来的居民登记。外面，援助团体则忙着发放便当。八代市民众用水壶接水。该地区许多家庭的供水中断。In a nearby neighborhood, Masae Taniguchi, 73, was out gathering water from a store across the street from her home when an older woman in a sun hat approached, asking Ms. Taniguchi how she was faring. Learning that Ms. Taniguchi had lost access to water, the neighbor offered her access to her home’s well.在附近的一个社区，73岁的谷口正惠（音）到家对面的商店取水时，一位戴遮阳帽的老妇人走过来询问她的情况。得知谷口家断水后，邻居主动提出可以到她家的水井取水。Mr. Mitsui, the mayor of Uto, said he believes a culture of helping others was common across Japan, but perhaps even more profound in communities that have experienced disasters. When the earthquake struck last week, “there was immediately a feeling of ‘Oh no, not again,’ but because we experienced this once, we also know how to support each other,” he said.宇土市市长光井正吾表示，他认为互相帮助的文化在整个日本都很普遍，但在那些经历过灾难的社区，这种文化或许更加深厚。上周地震发生时，“大家马上就有一种‘糟糕，又来了’的感觉，但因为我们经历过一次，所以我们也知道应该如何互相帮助。”他说。“Instead of relying on us or city hall staff, the local residents help each other out — delivering water, delivering food,” Mr. Mitsui said. “I don’t know if that directly correlates to the number of casualties, but I do think that aspect is big.”“当地居民不是等着我们或市政府工作人员去帮忙，而是彼此伸出援手——送水、送食物，”光井正吾说。“我不知道这是否能直接与伤亡人数联系起来，但我确实认为，这一方面发挥了很大的作用。”Kiuko Notoya对本文有报道贡献。摄影：Chang W. LeeRiver Akira Davis常驻东京，报道日本经济和商业新闻。Hisako Ueno是常驻东京的记者/研究员，撰写日本政治、商业、劳工、性别及文化相关议题。Chang W. Lee为《纽约时报》担任摄影师长发30年，报道过世界各地的事件。他目前常驻首尔。欢迎在Instagram上关注他：@nytchangster 翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。