Fundamental Market Analysis for August 13, 2026 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004Events to watch today: 09:00 EET. GBP -Gross Domestic Product 15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index GBPUSD: The pound enters the European session ahead of the first estimate of UK GDP for the second quarter and June economic data. Until the releases, the British currency remains sensitive to any deviation of the actual figures from expectations. Recent resilience in the economy has supported expectations of further tightening by the Bank of England, but this factor is already largely reflected in market pricing. On the US side, July inflation did not give the market a strong reason to increase expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the probability of a September move declining. Nevertheless, the dollar recovered from its initial weakness, while elevated US Treasury yields continue to provide support. Additional caution comes from the market’s focus on today’s US Producer Price Index report. For GBPUSD, local uncertainty is greater than for EURUSD because the UK GDP release could quickly change expectations for the Bank of England’s next steps. However, ahead of the data there is no strong confirmed catalyst supporting the pound, while the broader US dollar impulse remains moderately positive. Therefore, if current conditions persist, the base-case scenario for GBPUSD remains tilted to the downside. Trading idea: SELL 1.34900, SL 1.35250, TP 1.34150