EUR/GBP 4H – Technical & Fundamental OutlookEUR/GBPOANDA:EURGBPcalvinjonas01EUR/GBP remains under bearish pressure today (Aug 12, 2026), with fundamentals adding weight: hot German inflation (2.8% YoY) lifted the Euro slightly, but UK fiscal uncertainty and upcoming GDP data keep Sterling vulnerable. The pair trades near 0.8537, with sentiment leaning bearish. --- 📉 EUR/GBP 4H – Technical & Fundamental Outlook 🏛️ Market Structure - Price continues to form lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish structure. - Liquidity sweeps at swing highs (red markers) show failed breakouts. - Fair Value Gap inefficiencies are being filled, aligning with downside bias. 📊 Technical Analysis - Resistance: 0.86183 / 0.86000 - Support: 0.85358 / 0.84546 - Rejection from 0.86183 signals strong seller defense. - Momentum favors continuation lower into August. 🎯 Entry Model - Short entries favored at resistance retests (0.86000–0.86183). - Confirmation via bearish candlestick rejection. - Stops: Above 0.86183 swing high. - Targets: 0.85358 (first), 0.84546 (extended). ⚖️ Risk Management - Risk capped at one oversized bet. 🧠 Logic - Trade with structure, not against it. - Liquidity sweeps provide entries; inefficiency fills guide bias. - Bearish arrow reflects structure-driven logic, not prediction alone. --- 🌍 Fundamentals for Today (Aug 12, 2026) - German Inflation: HICP accelerated to 2.8% YoY, driven by energy (+7.3%). This gave EUR a short-lived lift but overall trend remains weak. - UK Outlook: No major UK data today; focus shifts to Q2 GDP release tomorrow (expected 0.3–0.4% q/q). A miss could trigger dovish repricing for BoE policy. - Fiscal Policy Risks: UK budget uncertainty under Burnham government (flexible fiscal rules, infrastructure spending, possible tax hikes) weighs on Sterling. - Yield Advantage: UK short-term rates remain ~150bps above Eurozone, supporting GBP, but debt concerns limit upside. - Sentiment: Current EUR/GBP rate ~0.8537, with 54% bearish vs 46% bullish momentum. --- 💭 Sentiment - Market leans bearish on EUR/GBP. - Euro pressured by inflation + energy costs. - Sterling supported by yields but capped by fiscal uncertainty. - Until structure shifts, shorts remain logical play.