Crude Oil (CL) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Fri (Aug 14)Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX:CL1!MyAlgoIndexBias: Neutral with an upside-skewed tail into Friday. WTI settled at 81.25, down 2.02 (2.43%), a de-escalation give-back as no fresh overnight Gulf action and reports of a shift toward economic pressure over strikes let some geopolitical premium bleed out. But after the settle, fresh supply-risk headlines (a reported Saudi refinery drone strike, a claim that two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz) have the electronic reopen bidding back above the settle near 81.3 to 81.4. Structurally price sits at the lower edge of a broad 80 to 100 environment, resting on the 100-day average (81.52) and just above a strong support base near 79.8 to 80.2. Momentum is soft near-term (below the 5 and 20-day averages, stochastics rolling) but the larger trend is intact (above the 50 and 200-day, up over 40% year-to-date), and a low trend-strength read points to range, not reversal. The dominant risk is a geopolitical gap out of Hormuz, which skews the fat tail to the upside. Resistance: 82.27, 82.38, 82.70 (short-term average and standard-deviation supply shelf) 83.00 (first-level pivot, the level to reclaim to repair the down day) 84.76 (second-level pivot) 86.21 (third-level pivot) 93.50, 95.30 (one-month and quarterly highs) Support: 80.23, 79.79, 79.81 (standard-deviation and pivot support confluence) 80.40 (session base) 79.49 (third standard-deviation support) 78.34, 78.63 (second-level pivot and 50-day average) 76.58, 74.23 (third-level pivot, one-month low) Primary Setup: Support-reclaim long. Favor entries in the 79.90 to 80.40 shelf on a reclaim of 80.5, stop below 79.30, targets 81.50, 82.70 and 83.00. Alternate is a fade short from the 82.70 to 83.00 supply confluence back toward 81.25 then 80.30. Stand aside if a fresh Strait of Hormuz headline gaps price outside the 79.8 to 83 band, do not chase the spike. No first-order energy data Friday (the weekly inventory report already printed midweek), so the session trades geopolitics and structure, with US retail sales at 08:30 ET and consumer sentiment at 10:00 ET as the macro reference points.