JACK NICAS, ALEX PENA2026年7月29日哈瓦那的一座空荡荡的加油站。 Lisette Poole González for The New York TimesFor months, President Trump has been predicting that Cuba is about to collapse.几个月来，特朗普总统一直预言古巴即将崩溃。“It’s just going to fall,” he told reporters on Jan. 4, a day after taking control of Venezuela’s oil, which had been Cuba’s lifeline.“它就要撑不住了，”他在1月4日告诉记者，此前一天，他刚刚控制了委内瑞拉的石油，这一直是古巴的生命线。He then imposed an oil blockade that has pushed the island into its worst ever energy crisis, with mass blackouts now lasting nearly all day. And yet, more than six months later, the Cuban government and people are still standing.随后，他实施了石油封锁，将这个岛国推入了有史以来最严重的能源危机，如今大规模的停电几乎持续整天。然而，六个多月过去了，古巴政府和人民依然屹立不倒。This month, we visited the country to understand how. After a week on the ground, we found that while Cubans are clearly suffering, they are also doing what perhaps they do best: adapting.本月，我们前往该国，以了解其中的原因。在实地考察了一周后，我们发现，尽管古巴人显然饱受煎熬，但他们也在做着他们可能最擅长的事情：适应。They are swapping their gas-guzzling 1950s American cars for electric motorcycles and rickshaws from China; importing hefty lithium batteries to keep televisions and fans running through blackouts; jury-rigging generators to run on more accessible natural gas; and installing solar panels on rooftops and even vehicles.他们将耗油量大的20世纪50年代美国汽车换成来自中国的电动摩托车和三轮车；进口笨重的锂电池，以便在停电期间维持电视和风扇的运转；临时改装发电机，使其能够使用更容易获取的天然气；并在屋顶甚至汽车上安装太阳能电池板。Together, the workarounds amount to a new Cuban energy grid — this one more in the hands of the Cuban people, propping up society with the electricity off and fuel lines dry.这些变通办法共同构成了一个新的古巴能源网——这个能源网更多地掌握在古巴人民自己手中，在断电和燃料枯竭的情况下支撑着社会的运转。These solutions have enabled the Cuban government to ration power by turning on the lights for just a few hours a day, stretching out whatever scarce fuel it has left in an effort to withstand Washington’s intense pressure campaign.这些解决方案使古巴政府能够实施电力配给，每天只供电几个小时，尽可能延长剩余的稀缺燃料的使用时间，努力抵御华盛顿的高压手段。The result is that Cuba has lasted far longer without fuel shipments than the Trump administration appears to have expected.结果是，古巴在没有燃料供应的情况下坚持得远比特朗普政府预期的要久。Over nearly seven decades of U.S. pressure, Cuba has defied the odds and improvised to survive. Now it seems that Mr. Trump, like many U.S. presidents before him, is also finding that toppling the government founded by Fidel Castro is not so simple.在美国近70年的施压下，古巴一直克服重重困难，靠着应变能力生存了下来。现在看来，特朗普就像之前的许多美国总统一样，也发现要推翻菲德尔·卡斯特罗建立的政府并非那么简单。Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters last week that the Trump administration still wants to see the Cuban government fall. “We’re prepared to be very realistic about how you do that, and patient,” he said. “These are complex things that take time, and obviously we’re prepared to do what we can.”美国国务卿鲁比奥上周告诉记者，特朗普政府仍然希望看到古巴政府倒台。“对于如何实现这一目标，我们准备采取非常务实的态度，并保持耐心，”他说。“这些都是需要时间的复杂事情，显然，我们已经准备好尽我们所能。”The Cuban government is seeking a deal. “Cuba is not an enemy of the United States,” Carlos Fernández de Cossio, Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, said in an interview. “What we would like is a constructive and respectful relationship.”古巴政府正在寻求达成一项协议。“古巴不是美国的敌人，”古巴副外长卡洛斯·费尔南德斯·德科西奥在接受采访时说。“我们希望建立一种建设性和相互尊重的关系。”Meantime, the Cuban people, as they have for decades, are making do. “Cubans thrive amid crisis,” said Humberto Palmero, a 55-year-old farmer, standing on the hill where he grew up along Cuba’s coastline, with a view toward Florida. His siblings had already left for Miami and his two children are fleeing to Spain, but he said he is determined to stay.与此同时，古巴人民像几十年来一样，仍在设法维持生计。“古巴人在危机中茁壮成长，”55岁的农民温贝托·帕尔梅罗说。他站在古巴海岸边他长大的山丘上，眺望着佛罗里达的方向。他的兄弟姐妹已经去了迈阿密，他的两个孩子也正逃往西班牙，但他表示自己决心留下来。After hearing about the oil blockade, Mr. Palmero learned on YouTube how to distill junk plastic into homemade gasoline and diesel. He has since built a tiny, makeshift refinery in his backyard to power his motorcycle and light his stove.得知石油封锁的消息后，帕尔梅罗在YouTube上学习了如何将废弃塑料提炼成自制汽油和柴油。之后，他在自家后院搭建了一个小型的简易炼油装置，用来驱动摩托车和给炉子点火。“We look for solutions,” he said. “The economic restrictions are slowly killing us, but we’re pulling through with all our might, managing to get by until we see what happens next.”“我们在寻找解决办法，”他说。“经济限制正在慢慢地把我们逼上绝路，但我们正在用尽全力挺过去，努力维持生计，直到看看接下来会发生什么。”胡贝尔托·帕尔梅罗在古巴自家后院利用塑料碎片炼制汽油。Misery and Grit苦难与坚韧In Havana and beyond, the crisis’s effects were clear.在哈瓦那及其他地区，这场危机的影响显而易见。We met families walking two hours for water because government pumps had run out of diesel. Women, lacking gas, cooked with firewood on the street. Powerless refrigerators became cabinets. Hitchhikers littered roadsides after the city halted public busing. And dozens of people told us they were simply exhausted after so many sleepless nights in the sweltering heat without fans or air-conditioning.我们遇到一些家庭，因为政府水泵的柴油用尽，他们不得不步行两小时去取水。由于缺乏燃气，女人们在街上用柴火做饭。断电的冰箱变成了储物柜。在城市停止公共交通后，路边满是搭便车的人。几十个人告诉我们，在没有风扇和空调的闷热夜晚，他们彻夜难眠，已经筋疲力尽。But we also saw a country that was still functioning.但我们也看到，这个国家仍在运转。Vehicles were on the road — despite black-market gasoline reaching $30 a gallon — because many were electric. Restaurants were open for the few who could afford them, powered by rumbling generators out back. Hospitals, government buildings and the airport had power because they were on protected parts of the grid. Medical clinics, nursing homes and bank branches ran off solar panels donated by China.尽管黑市汽油价格已涨至每加仑30美元，路上仍有车辆行驶——因为许多车是电动的。餐馆靠着后院轰鸣的发电机供电，为少数消费得起的人开门营业。医院、政府大楼和机场有电力供应，因为它们位于受保护的电网区域。医疗诊所、疗养院和银行分行则依靠中国捐赠的太阳能电池板运转。Cell service was sometimes working. Televisions showing the World Cup were not hard to find. And even roadside stands were serving cold beer from refrigerators powered by the sun.手机信号有时是畅通的。播放世界杯的电视并不难找。甚至路边摊也供应着由太阳能冰箱冷藏的冰啤酒。But the makeshift energy grid also exposed Cuba’s inequality.但这个临时拼凑的能源网也暴露了古巴社会的不平等。The batteries, solar panels and electric vehicles overwhelmingly belong to wealthier Cubans, which usually means those with relatives abroad. Their poorer neighbors often live without power and scrape by with meager pay amid rising inflation.电池、太阳能电池板和电动汽车绝大多数属于较富裕的古巴人，这通常意味着他们有在国外的亲属。他们较贫穷的邻居经常过着没有电的生活，在不断加剧的通货膨胀中靠微薄的薪水勉强度日。“The situation here is fine, because the owner can afford to buy solar panels,” said Yeny Oliva, 26, a bartender at a roadside restaurant. “But for us, at home, life is awful.” On wages of roughly $1 a day, she said, she struggles to buy milk for her 3-year-old daughter, and then their food spoils quickly without electricity.“这里的情况还不错，因为老板买得起太阳能电池板，”26岁的路边餐馆调酒师叶妮·奥利瓦说。“但对我们来说，在家里，生活太糟糕了。”她说，她每天大约赚一美元的工资，很难为三岁的女儿买到牛奶，而且在没有电的情况下，她们的食物很快就会变质。叶妮·奥利瓦工作的路边餐馆安装了太阳能电池板，这使他们得以继续营业。Yet she also was grateful for the solar energy. Without power, the restaurant had closed. Then, the owners installed the panels and she was back at work.然而，她也很感激太阳能。停电时，餐馆曾关门歇业。后来，老板安装了电池板，她才恢复了工作。Scraping the Barrel想尽办法Other than a single Russian oil tanker in March, allies have not been willing to test Washington’s effective oil blockade.除了3月的一艘俄罗斯油轮，盟国都不愿去挑战华盛顿实质性的石油封锁。As a result, Cuba has been powering its electric grid solely with domestic oil and gas and a growing network of solar parks sponsored by China. Together, they are enough to support roughly half of Cuban demand, according to Jorge Piñón, who studies Cuban energy at the University of Texas.因此，古巴只能完全依靠国产油气以及由中国资助且规模日益扩大的太阳能发电场网络供电。得克萨斯大学研究古巴能源的豪尔赫·皮农表示，这些能源假期来可以满足古巴大约一半的需求。To preserve that supply, the government strategically cuts power at certain times and in certain places. It also runs plants at lower capacity to keep them from failing; extracts more natural gas; and even tries to refine sludgy oil residues from the bottom of years-old tanks.为了维持这种供应，政府会在特定时间和特定地点实施战略性限电。政府还以较低的负荷运行发电厂以防止其发生故障；开采更多天然气；甚至试图提炼积存多年储油罐底部的油泥状残渣。“They are literally scraping the bottom of the barrel,” Mr. Piñón said.“他们真的是在想尽一切办法，”皮农说。哈瓦那停电期间，孩子们借助发电机供电观看电影。Mr. Piñón said he and other analysts underestimated the Cuban government’s resourcefulness when they forecast it would exhaust its fuel stocks by March. But now he is skeptical of the government’s claim in May that the island has run out of fuel. On our trip, it was clear gasoline and diesel were still circulating.皮农说，他和其它分析师原本预测古巴政府将在3月耗尽燃料储备，但他们低估了古巴政府的应变能力。而现在，他对政府5月声称该岛已经耗尽燃料的说法表示怀疑。在我们的行程期间，汽油和柴油明显仍在流通。At least some is coming from the United States. The Trump administration has allowed limited fuel exports to private businesses in Cuba, which has relieved pressure on black-market gas prices. And last week, the U.S. government’s first batch of $100 million in aid arrived.至少有一部分是来自美国。特朗普政府允许向古巴的私营企业有限度出口燃料，这缓解了黑市汽油价格的上涨压力。而就在上周，美国政府首批1亿美元的援助物资已经抵达古巴。The moves show how the Trump administration is exerting power over Cuba, ordering other nations to halt fuel shipments but allowing its own, and then providing aid in response to the resulting crisis. A White House spokeswoman said the Trump administration viewed Cuba as a threat to national security.这些举措表明，特朗普政府如何对古巴施加影响：一方面命令其他国家停止向古巴输送燃料，另一方面却允许本国燃料继续输送，在危机爆发后提供援助。白宫一位发言人表示，特朗普政府将古巴视为对国家安全的威胁。Exhausted Cubans told us they were angry at both Havana and Washington. Yet no one said they planned to take to the streets. Aside from banging pots and pans, the Cuban people have hardly staged protests.精疲力尽的古巴人告诉我们，他们对哈瓦那和华盛顿都感到愤怒。然而，没有人表示他们打算上街游行。除了敲打锅碗瓢盆外，古巴人民几乎没有举行过抗议活动。“You go out to express your opinion on the street, and they throw you in jail or fine you,” said David Hechavarría Gamboa, 24, standing alongside his wife on a darkened street. “I can’t put my family at risk.”“如果你上街表达意见，他们就会把你关进监狱或者罚款，”24岁的戴维·埃查瓦里亚·甘博亚和妻子站在黑暗的街边说。“我不能让家人冒这个险。”Chasing Daylight追逐日光When U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, in January, Nelson Vega knew Cuba had a problem. Venezuelan oil had powered Cuba for years.今年1月，当美军抓获委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗时，尼尔森·维加就知道古巴有麻烦了。多年来，委内瑞拉的石油一直是古巴的能源支柱。A month later, Mr. Vega, a 38-year-old entrepreneur, borrowed money from relatives in Florida to buy a Chinese-made electric rickshaw for $4,850. It took 10 hours to charge, and almost immediately, the blackouts made that difficult. So he invested a further $600 to drill solar panels to its roof.一个月后，38岁的企业家维加向佛罗里达州的亲戚借钱，以4850美元的价格购买了一辆中国制造的电动三轮车。这辆车需要充电10个小时，而且几乎就在买回来后不久，停电就让充电变得困难起来。因此，他又投资了600美元，在车顶上安装了太阳能电池板。Now he can power the entire battery by parking it in the sun for a day. “To me, this is the future,” he said. “We’re going to overcome the U.S. blockade.”现在，他只需把三轮车在阳光下停一天，就能给电池充满电。“对我来说，这就是未来，”他说。“我们将克服美国的封锁。”Once we traveled outside Havana, solar panels proliferated. Cuba’s power grid has been decaying in rural areas for years, making blackouts — and solar panels — already common.一旦离开哈瓦那，太阳能电池板便随处可见。多年来，古巴农村地区的电网一直日益老化，这使得停电早已司空见惯，太阳能电池板也变得普遍。We also came across a new field of panels — one of the government’s 54 solar parks, most inaugurated since 2025 and all built with China’s help.我们还偶然发现了一片新的太阳能电池板场地——这是政府设立的54个太阳能园区之一，其中大部分是在2025年之后落成的，并且全部是在中国帮助下建成。Few countries are adopting solar faster than Cuba. Solar energy can now meet roughly 10 percent of Cuba’s electricity needs, the government says, up from 3 percent at the start of 2025. Cuban officials aim to depend fully on renewable energy by 2050.很少有国家比古巴更迅速地推广太阳能。政府表示，太阳能现在可以满足古巴约10%的电力需求，高于2025年初的3%。古巴官员的目标是到2050年完全依赖可再生能源。Running on Fumes极限运转Perhaps Cuba’s hottest product of the moment are portable lithium batteries that can be charged in a few hours and then temporarily power televisions, fans or even refrigerators.古巴目前最热门的产品可能是便携式锂电池，这种电池可以在几个小时内充满电，然后为电视、风扇甚至冰箱提供临时电力。The most popular model costs about $750 in Cuba, sold on social media by Cubans who have imported them from China. That is more than most Cubans make in a year, so most of the batteries are sponsored by relatives abroad.最受欢迎的型号在古巴售价约为750美元，由从中国进口产品的古巴人在社交媒体上出售。这超过了大多数古巴人一年的收入，因此大部分电池都是由海外亲属资助的。Other Cubans are electrifying their homes with the gas piped in for cooking and heating water. About 280,000 residences in Havana have such gas lines, and many are connecting them to modified generators designed to run on liquid fuel. Cuba produces the gas domestically, so it is one of the few energy sources not affected by the blockade.还有一些古巴人利用用于烹饪和烧水管线输送的天然气为家里发电。哈瓦那大约有28万户住宅有这种天然气管道，许多家庭将管道连接到经过改装、专为液态燃料设计的发电机上。古巴国内自产天然气，因此它是少数不受封锁影响的能源之一。The gas is also cheap, especially for the 120,000 households that pay a flat rate regardless of use. One man said he had been running a generator off gas almost nonstop, and yet was still billed the same 50 pesos, or eight cents, for the month.天然气也很便宜，特别是对于12万户按固定费率缴费、无论用量多少都只需支付相同金额的家庭而言。一名男子说，他几乎不停地用天然气运行发电机，但这个月的账单仍然是同样的50比索（约合8美分）。哈瓦那某栋安装了太阳能电池板的建筑前停着几辆电动汽车。 On one of our final nights in Havana, we found a bar still full of patrons past midnight, powering its string lights and Latin music with a natural gas generator. Outside, we met Kiké Rodríguez, 37, founder of a Cuban barbecue business, Manteca, that has expanded during the crisis. He now employs 18 people to cook and deliver pork and plantains to customers across Havana.在哈瓦那的最后几个夜晚之一，我们发现，一家酒吧过了午夜依然顾客盈门，它用天然气发电机供电，点亮灯串，播放拉丁音乐。在外面，我们遇到了37岁的基克·罗德里格斯，他是古巴烧烤店“曼特卡”的创始人，这家店在危机期间还扩大了规模。他现在雇佣了18名员工，为哈瓦那各地的顾客烹调和运送猪肉及大蕉。“We’re the masters of this,” he said. “We’ve been figuring things out our whole lives.”“我们是这方面的行家，”他说。“我们一辈子都在想办法解决各种问题。”He pointed to the rooftop, where he said he was finishing a remodel to open his first brick-and-mortar restaurant, powered by the same generator.他指着屋顶，说他正在那里完成改造，准备开设他的第一家实体餐厅，由同一台发电机供电。“How are things going to play out? Nobody knows,” he added. “But when people say the country is going to fall apart, I don’t exactly know what they mean.”“事情会怎么发展？没有人知道，”他还说。“但是当人们说这个国家即将崩溃时，我并不太清楚他们到底是什么意思。”摄影：Lisette Poole GonzálezDiana Karla Hernández和Dariel Pradas对本文有报道贡献。Yasu Tsuji有视频编辑和制作贡献。 Jack Nicas是时报墨西哥城分社社长，领导墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区的报道。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。