FOMC Looms as Price Stalls Below Key Fibonacci ResistanceUSD/CADOANDA:USDCADKingCephas2026USD/CAD enters today's FOMC meeting at a critical technical level. After recovering from the 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.4010, buyers have managed to reclaim higher ground, but momentum is fading as price struggles beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance around 1.4120–1.4140. The market is clearly waiting for today's Federal Reserve decision before making its next significant move. 📈 What the Chart Is Saying The recovery remains technically intact, but resistance is beginning to prove its importance. Price attempted another push into the green supply zone but was rejected, showing sellers are still defending this area aggressively. Despite the pullback, the decline has been relatively controlled, suggesting profit-taking rather than a complete shift back to bearish momentum. The Stochastic RSI has rotated lower from overbought territory, indicating that short-term momentum has cooled. However, with a major central bank event only hours away, momentum indicators should be interpreted cautiously. As long as USD/CAD holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci level around 1.4065, the broader recovery from last week's lows remains valid. 🌍 Fundamental Outlook Today's focus is entirely on the Federal Reserve. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged. The bigger catalyst will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance on inflation, tariffs, labor market conditions, and the outlook for future monetary policy. Tomorrow's Core PCE inflation report adds another layer of uncertainty, meaning traders are unlikely to establish large positions before hearing from the Fed. Recent macro themes remain supportive for USD/CAD: Softer Canadian CPI continues to weigh on the Canadian dollar. Trade tensions remain a headwind for Canada's economy. Elevated Treasury yields continue supporting the U.S. dollar. Higher crude oil prices provide some support for CAD but have not been enough to reverse the broader bullish USD bias. 📊 The Trading Advantage™ Dashboard USD/CAD Macro Score™ (UMS): 71/100 Bias: Moderately Bullish Market Risk Meter™ (MRM): HIGH Today's volatility will likely be driven by the Fed rather than technical levels alone. 🎯 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario Hold above 1.4065 Break above 1.4120–1.4140 Targets: 1.4200 then 1.4240 Bearish Scenario Lose 1.4065 Retest 1.4010 Extended weakness could revisit recent lows if the Fed surprises dovishly. 💡 Trading Lesson Major central bank days reward patience, not prediction. The first move after the FOMC announcement is often driven by algorithms and liquidity. Waiting for confirmation after the initial volatility can significantly improve trade quality. Technical analysis is for entries and exits. Fundamental analysis is for direction and momentum. What do you expect from today's FOMC meeting? Will USD/CAD finally break above the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance, or will sellers defend it once again? Share your thoughts below.