Tesla (TSLA) LONG — 1D ALMA Setup (WR 76% · avg RR 2.4)Tesla, Inc.BATS:TSLAGoldfinch_song█ SETUP TSLA · 1D · long only. (Context: Tesla — EV / autonomy / energy-storage equity beta — path can diverge from deliveries headlines and Mag7 tape; not a discretionary “buy Tesla” call.) ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 6/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (TSLA 1D): Win rate 76% · profit factor 3.1 · max drawdown 29% Avg winning trade +17.6% · avg losing trade −7.3% Typical hold ~24×1D bars on winners — Mag7 EV mean-reversion grid on the daily Averaging template · 75-trade sample ═ █ WHY NOW Fresh 1D ALMA long on the 27 Jul 13:30 UTC bar ~$306 — first lot on this Averaging template (1 of 4). Bar-close ENTRY into the post-earnings wash that carried into late Jul — not a discretionary robotaxi thesis and not a “catch the Mag7 bounce” call. Hard stop −10% from fill ~$276. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in stays 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, if lower bars qualify. ═ █ MACRO Sector: TSLA = EV deliveries / margins, energy storage, and autonomy narrative beta — competitor EV share, China volume, and Mag7 risk appetite move the name more than a single index print. Tape (24–27 Jul): Tesla’s post-earnings selloff stayed loud into late Jul (market-cap briefly under $1T class around 24 Jul; digest still printing “post-earnings selloff continues” into 27 Jul). Earlier Jul also carried the Q2 delivery print vs BYD share fight — still the fundamental backdrop, not the fill trigger. Execution is 1D ALMA Averaging on the fill bar — not an earnings or robotaxi forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - Tester skew: 76% WR · PF 3.1 · avg win +17.6% vs avg loss −7.3% (avg RR 2.4) — fat right tail vs a bounded −10% ALMA stop path - Fresh first-lot ENTRY on the 27 Jul daily close ~$306 after the post-earnings slide — process re-arm into discount, not revenge size - EMA — 4H/1D Below and time-stretched: 4H Cur S:21 vs Avg S:11.6 (Dev +22%) · 1D Cur S:11 vs Avg S:6.6 (Dev +23%) — execution + daily clocks overheated below the line (mean-reversion fuel) - ALMA — 4H/1D/3D SHORT OVERHEAT-S: 4H S:7 vs SAvg:3.7 · 1D S:11 vs SAvg:3.5 · 3D S:5 vs SAvg:3.4 — stretched below the band on the Averaging clocks - SMC — 4H: FVG Raid Bull ~$313 (24 Jul) · prior FVG Enter Bull ~$309 — demand inefficiency sits just above the fill - SMC — 1D: FVG Enter Bull ~$313 (24 Jul) — daily bull inefficiency printed into the wash window - RSI: RSI 14 / RSI 9 Oversold on 1D — daily momentum wash aligns with the Averaging arm - Snapshot long-score skew (~87 vs short ~−77 on the board) — board tilt matches a discount long frame, not a chase Negative factors - EMA — 3D/1W still young Below: 3D Cur S:4 vs Avg S:8.0 · 1W Cur S:3 vs Avg S:7.3 — slow clocks not fully stretched; wash can extend before the bounce matures - ALMA — 1W still young SHORT: S:3 vs SAvg:3.6 — weekly below-band session not overheated yet - Spot ~$306 sits under the ~$309–313 bull-FVG pocket — reclaim of that shelf still needed for a clean bounce read - SMC — 1D mixed: same 24 Jul window also printed FVG New Bear ~$313 — bull FVG is not a clean one-way shelf - SMC — 1W: OB New Bear near the same ~$313 zone — HTF supply print still in the ladder - TL: Support Break (2 bars) on 24 Jul — structure broke lower into the earnings wash, not a clean multi-month regime flip - Price-action board: Bearish FVG Formed / HTF Bearish FVG — overhead supply still active - Snapshot board had no VWAP Touch row for TSLA — no Active Support/Resistance levels to lean on in this idea - Tester max drawdown ~29% on the sample — wider equity path than the nominal −10% hard stop; gap risk on TSLA is real Takeaway: the 1D ALMA strategy and WR/PF skew support a disciplined entry into the post-earnings wash, with 4H/1D EMA time-stretch below and 4H–3D ALMA OVERHEAT-S, but young 3D/1W below-sessions, spot still under the ~$309–313 bull FVG, mixed bear prints, and a Support Break frame a reclaim grind — not a clean trend bottom; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: follow 1D ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying bars while reclaiming/holding the ~$309–313 bull-FVG pocket · mean-revert toward the mid-$320s prior shelf if Mag7 tape stabilizes without a fresh gap through the stop. Bear case: fail to reclaim ~$309–313 · Support Break extends · Mag7/headline gap drives TSLA through −10% toward ~$276 from this fill · template posts the stop and waits for the next bar-close arm. Chart: TSLA 1D — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.