NAIROBI, Kenya, July 28 – United Green Movement Party leader David Maraga has accused the Kenya Kwanza administration of failing to adequately prepare for the forecast El Niño rains, warning that the country risks a major humanitarian and environmental crisis if urgent measures are not taken.In a statement issued Tuesday, Maraga said the government was “sleepwalking” Kenya into a predictable climate disaster despite repeated warnings from local, regional and international weather agencies about the likelihood of an exceptionally severe rainy season later this year.He cited forecasts by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which have warned of an intense El Niño event expected to affect the region from October through early next year.According to Maraga, forecasters have projected an “eight-in-ten chance” that the phenomenon dubbed the “Godzilla El Niño” will hit East Africa, with rainfall expected to surpass the devastating 1997 El Niño that caused widespread flooding, destruction of infrastructure and loss of lives across Kenya.The former Chief Justice also pointed to the United Nations’ assessment placing Kenya among 22 countries facing the highest humanitarian risk from the anticipated weather event.He noted that the UN has launched a $202 million global appeal aimed at supporting 8.8 million vulnerable Kenyans expected to be affected by the looming crisis.Maraga, however, said there was little evidence that the government had put in place adequate contingency plans to cushion the country against the anticipated impacts.“Despite the alarm sounded by the experts, there is no visible contingency preparation by the government to mitigate the looming disaster,” he said.He urged the government to move with speed to implement disaster preparedness measures, including strengthening flood mitigation programmes, protecting vulnerable communities and ensuring emergency response systems are in place before the onset of the heavy rains.Climate scientists have warned county governments to prepare for the worst as Kenya braces for what could be one of the most intense El Niño seasons in decades, urging immediate anticipatory action to protect lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.Officials from the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) say the October-November-December (OND) short rains season is likely to be driven by a combination of a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), conditions expected to trigger above-normal rainfall across much of the country.Speaking during a KMSA webinar on “El Niño 2026: Evolution, Forecast and Potential Impacts in Kenya,” Disaster Risk Management and Anticipatory Action Expert Misiani Zachary cautioned that the rains could begin with torrential downpours, increasing the risk of widespread flash floods.“The two signals the strong El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole could significantly enhance rainfall, triggering an early onset of the season that may begin with torrential rains, resulting in flash floods across different parts of the country,” Misiani said.He urged county governments to adopt a worst-case scenario in their preparedness plans, warning that Homa Bay, Kisumu and Nakuru counties face a heightened risk of flooding caused by backflow from major lakes.According to Misiani, Lake Victoria and Lake Naivasha are among the water bodies that could experience backflow, potentially displacing thousands of residents living in low-lying areas.The expert warned that the anticipated heavy rains could further worsen the already rising water levels in Lake Victoria, Lake Turkana and several Rift Valley lakes, including Baringo, Bogoria, Elementaita, Naivasha and Nakuru.“The rising lake levels could result in mass displacement of communities living around these water bodies,” he said.Misiani also raised concern over the country’s five major river basins—Tana, Athi, Turkana, Ewaso Ng’iro and the Lake Victoria Basin—which are expected to receive substantial water inflows during the rainy season.“If these basins receive excess water, there is a higher likelihood of riverine flooding along the main rivers,” he said.He added that the expected rainfall could fill major dams and reservoirs beyond capacity, forcing water releases that could inundate downstream communities.Beyond flooding, Misiani warned that the rains could damage roads and bridges, disrupt learning in schools and leave several parts of the country inaccessible.Meanwhile, KMSA Deputy Director for Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani linked the below-average rainfall currently being experienced in parts of western Kenya and the North Rift to the evolving El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.She said the dry spell could negatively affect farmers who planted late despite earlier advisories issued by the meteorological agency.“There is potential for crop failure in some areas, especially in the North Rift. However, farmers who acted on our forecast of an early onset of the long rains are likely to record bumper harvests and can use the current warm, dry conditions to harvest and minimise post-harvest losses,” Kimani said.She cautioned that farmers who delayed planting remain at risk of significant crop losses as weather patterns continue to shift ahead of the expected El Niño season.The Kenya Meteorological Service has urged both national and county governments, humanitarian agencies and communities to closely monitor weather forecasts and strengthen preparedness measures to minimise the potential impact of the anticipated heavy rains.