BTC - LTF Structure Before FOMCBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTVIAQUANTHere I wanted to outline the lower timeframe (2H) structure for BTC. Currently it is sitting in a very interesting spot right before today's rate decision. Since July 13th, BTC has been in a steady uptrend (green circles) until the breakdown and recent retest as a new level of selling (red circle). Citadel Securities recently made headlines with a contrarian call that the Fed will deliver a surprise 25 basis point hike at today's FOMC decision, moving the federal funds rate from the current 3.50% to 3.75% range up to 3.75% to 4%. This is interesting, as it could be market participants preparing the structure ahead of the possibility of a surprise rate hike. This stands in sharp contrast to the broader consensus, as even with headlines like this circulating, market pricing still only reflects roughly a 36% to 40% probability of a hike, according to both CME FedWatch data and interest rate swap markets, up meaningfully from just 10% two weeks ago. If a hike does occur, it would likely be the structural catalyst needed to push Bitcoin back into the $61,000 to $62,000 zone. I am in the camp that believes this remains the less likely scenario and that rates will remain unchanged. If rates do hold steady, that should ease some of the short term concerns around a surprise hike and could help push Bitcoin back above this lower timeframe structure. If this does occur, everything I have been laying out from a macro perspective remains fully intact, and price will need to close and confirm daily candles above the $66,300 level to continue the ascent toward the $70,000 to $74,000 range. After the FOMC decision, I will make a follow up post outlining this structure and how the market has reacted to the statement and the meeting. For now, I at least wanted to give you an early read on both scenarios based on the current structure building on the 2H timeframe.