As race for next UN Secretary-General begins, an Expert Explains what will determine who prevails

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The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held its first “straw poll” on Thursday (July 30) for choosing the next Secretary-General of the UN (UNSG), whose five-year term would start on January 1, 2027. Although the poll’s results weren’t announced, it is informally believed that three candidates from Latin America have scored well: Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, an economist who heads UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD); Carolyn Birkett, Guyana’s Permanent Representative to the UN; and Rafael Grossi from Argentina, who is director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).Here’s what to know about the process of the UNSG’s appointment and the candidates in the fray.The UNSC consists of 15 members: five permanent members (known as P5) — China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US — and 10 non-permanent members elected for two-year terms by the UN General Assembly. Of the current 10 non-permanent members, those with terms ending in 2026 are Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia, while those with terms ending in 2027 are Bahrain, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Latvia, and Liberia.Straw polls is a UNSC process which doesn’t disclose the name of the voting member-state. The slips carry the name of the candidate and UNSC members note “encourage”, “discourage”, or leave them blank.Also read | India’s rise demands a seat at the UNSCWhile this round didn’t distinctly mark the slips as belonging to the P5 or non-permanent members, the slips of the P5 will be coloured in the upcoming rounds. Drawing a “discourage” coloured slip indicates a likely P5 veto.Of course, views of countries can change, as repeated straw polls are conducted until there is a clear candidate with nine encourage slips and no coloured “discourage” slip, that is, support of the majority in the 15-member UNSC and no veto.Story continues below this adThe appointment of the UNSG is governed by Article 97 of the UN Charter that states that “the Secretary-General shall be appointed by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council”. The primacy of the UNSC in this process is clear: it forwards just one name to the General Assembly for endorsement.Candidates in the frayConsidering the current UNSG, Antonio Guterres, is from Portugal and his immediate two predecessors were from Asia (Ban Ki-moon of South Korea) and Africa (Kofi Annan of Ghana) respectively, the expectation is that this time, the choice will fall on someone from Latin America and perhaps a woman, as none have held the position. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during a press conference ahead of the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023. Photo: Anil SharmaApart from the three (Grynspan, Birkett, and Grossi), there are four others in the fray: Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile; Maria Espinoza, former Foreign Minister of Ecuador; Macky Sall, former President of Senegal; and Olara Otunnu, a former senior UN official from Uganda. Candidates need to be endorsed by at least one member-state, though not necessarily by their own country.NewsletterFollow our daily newsletter so you never miss anything important. On Wednesday, we answer readers' questions.SubscribeThe three candidates who are said to have done well in the first straw poll are from countries with good relations with the Donald Trump administration in the US. This is particularly important but the others in the P5, particularly China and Russia, may have their own views.Story continues below this adFor instance, Grossi has had to deal with sensitive nuclear issues at the IAEA. As head of UNCTAD, Grynspan appears to have been able to positively leverage developing countries on the UNSC, while Birkett would have benefited from a certain camaraderie from fellow Ambassadors as a Permanent Representative.The coming weeks should see a fair amount of give-and-take between the P5 for senior positions in the incoming UN administration as well, which is a matter of interest among other countries too, including India. Considering there’s no bar on the entry of more candidates as the process unfolds, success in the end may not be with the strongest candidate in terms of multilateral and diplomatic qualifications, but one who can surmount the biggest hurdle — a certain acceptability with all of the P5.The writer is former ambassador of India to the EU and Nepal.