TALMON JOSEPH SMITH2026年7月31日 The New York TimesThe American economy slowed in the second quarter of the year, expanding at an annual rate of 1.5 percent as the war with Iran upended prices, supply chains and energy markets.美国经济在今年第二季度放缓，按年率计算仅增长1.5%，这主要是由于伊朗战争扰乱了价格、供应链和能源市场。Oil prices have receded from their peaks in the spring. But damage in the form of higher prices for gasoline and other petroleum-based products is still hitting households and businesses. Persistent inflation and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s plans to contain it pushed up bond yields this week.油价已经从春季的高点回落，但汽油及其他石油制品价格上涨所造成的损害仍在冲击家庭和企业。持续通胀以及围绕美联储遏制通胀计划的不确定性本周推高了债券收益率。It amounts to an uncertain moment for the U.S. economy, which continues to show signs of strength even as it is battered by persistent inflation and a destabilizing war in the Middle East and the potential for higher borrowing costs that could suck some of the juice out of its engine.对美国经济而言，这无疑是一个充满不确定性的时刻。尽管经济持续表现出韧性，但它同时受到持续通胀、中东破坏性战争以及借贷成本可能上升的多重打击，借贷成本上升可能削弱经济增长动力。Growth over the past three months was lower than the 2.1 percent annual rate of growth in the first quarter. Growth in both personal income and consumer spending also slowed in June.过去三个月的经济增长低于一季度2.1%的年化增长率，6月个人收入和消费者支出的增速也双双放缓。Still, the G.D.P. report showed that overall consumption remained relatively healthy and business investment, especially related to the artificial intelligence boom, continued to plow forward. An underlying “core” measure of growth, which captures the sum of consumer spending and gross private investment, increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with 1.7 percent in the first quarter.不过，GDP报告显示，整体消费仍相对健康，企业投资——尤其是与人工智能热潮相关的投资——继续强劲推进。衡量消费支出与私人投资总额的“核心”增长指标，在二季度增长了3.9%，而一季度为1.7%。“Underlying growth was strong,” said Eric Wallerstein, a former adviser at the Federal Reserve and the chief macro strategist at the Clocktower Group, an asset management and advisory firm. Still, he added, “real incomes and spending have been trending lower.”“经济的基本增长动力仍然很强，”资产管理和咨询公司Clocktower Group首席宏观策略师、曾任美联储顾问的埃里克·沃勒斯坦表示。不过他也补充说：“实际收入和消费支出一直呈下行趋势。”Because G.D.P. is adjusted for inflation, rising costs dampened the growth reflected in the data released on Thursday. This was the first estimate for the second quarter by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Revisions, conducted by civil servants at the agency, can be substantial, especially during periods of price volatility.由于GDP数据已经根据通胀进行了调整，成本上涨压低了周四数据所体现的经济增长。这是美国经济分析局对二季度的初步估算。该机构后续进行的修订可能会有较大变动，尤其是在价格波动剧烈的时期。Data collected by Viresh Kanabar, a financial researcher, shows that business orders and expenditures are rising. Retail sales have also been strong for several months. But consumer purchases are also growing at a much softer pace when adjusted for inflation, Mr. Kanabar’s data shows. Over the past six months, he notes, “real” inflation-adjusted income has also fallen overall, and at a rate not seen since the height of the inflation spike in 2022.金融研究员维雷什·卡纳巴尔收集的数据表明，企业订单和支出正在增加。过去几个月，零售销售也一直表现强劲。但他的数据显示，在扣除通胀因素后，消费者购买增长速度明显更加缓慢。他指出，过去六个月中，经通胀调整的“实际”收入整体也呈下降趋势，且降幅为2022年通胀峰值以来所未见。G.D.P., in simplest terms, is an account of the exchange of goods and services in the economy. And G.D.P. growth is a fluctuating mix of four factors: business investment, government expenditures, net exports and household consumption, which typically constitutes about 70 percent of the U.S. economy.简单来说，GDP是对经济中商品和服务交换情况的一种统计记录。GDP增长则是四个因素共同作用的结果：企业投资、政府支出、净出口以及居民消费。其中，居民消费通常占美国经济的70%左右。Consumer spending and business investment are on solid footing, but a pullback in net government spending and an increase in imports dragged on momentum.消费者支出和企业投资目前仍然稳固，但政府净支出的减少以及进口增加拖累了经济增长势头。“It’s a chug-along economy until further notice,” said Dan Alpert, a senior fellow in macroeconomics at Cornell Law and managing partner at Westwood Capital, a financial firm.“目前来看，经济只是勉强前行，除非另有变化，”康奈尔法学院宏观经济学高级研究员、金融公司西木资本执行合伙人丹·阿尔珀特说。Earlier this month, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 10 to 12 percent on imports from more than 80 countries. Economists have criticized the president’s global tariffs, and courts have struck many of them down.本月早些时候，特朗普政府对来自80多个国家的进口商品加征了10%至12%的关税。经济学家批评总统的全球关税政策，法院也已推翻了其中多项措施。Economists do not expect the tariffs that remain in place to cause a downturn. But many do believe it will slow growth and raise prices. According to one estimate by Yale researchers, the tax duties are costing the average American family around $1,100 annually.经济学家普遍认为现行关税不至于引发经济衰退，但许多人相信它将拖慢增长、推高物价。据耶鲁大学研究人员估算，这些关税每年使普通美国家庭增加约1100美元的负担。Many business leaders have expressed confidence that the Iran conflict will stay contained, with limited harm to broader commercial activity. But the Strait of Hormuz, a key fuel bottleneck partially under Iran’s control, is still not a reliable passage for global shippers. Market analysts have issued stark warnings that international oil inventories are quickly depleting. So the risk of widespread shortages could soon be rearing again.许多商界领袖表示相信，伊朗冲突将会保持在可控范围内，对整体商业活动造成的损害有限。然而，全球重要能源通道霍尔木兹海峡部分处于伊朗掌控之下，至今仍未成为全球航运商可以依赖的稳定通道。市场分析师已发出严厉警告，全球石油库存正在迅速消耗，大规模短缺的风险可能很快卷土重来。One partial saving grace has been that the domestic and global economies have become much less “energy intensive.” The amount of energy burned to generate a dollar of growth has fallen by about a third since 2000 in the United States and Europe and by roughly 40 percent in China. But lower crude inventories could still lead to an inflationary surge in oil prices that halts growth.一个部分缓解因素是，国内和全球经济的“能源密集度”已大幅降低。自2000年以来，美国和欧洲每产生一美元增长所消耗的能源减少了约三分之一，中国降幅约为40%。但原油库存的下降仍可能引发油价通胀式飙升，继而阻碍经济增长。There is some evidence that the jump in energy prices has already bled into the rest of the economy. Grocery prices are expected to rise and airfares, which have surged, are not expected to retreat anytime soon.有证据表明，能源价格的上涨已传导至经济的其他领域。食品杂货价格预计将上涨，而已经大幅上涨的机票价格短期内也不太可能回落。Separate monthly data released on Thursday showed that the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation actually fell 0.1 percent in June. That reflects the cool-off in oil prices in June. On an annual basis, inflation is still up 3.7 percent, well above the central bank’s long-run target of 2 percent. And inflation in the second quarter was especially high.周四公布的另一组月度数据显示，美联储偏好的通胀指标在6月实际上下降了0.1%。这反映出6月油价降温的影响。但按年率计算，通胀率仍高达3.7%，远高于美联储2%的长期目标。二季度的通胀尤其严重。The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday. But three of the 12 members on the Fed’s policymaking committee dissented, voting to raise rates, a signal that pressure to contain inflation is mounting. Kevin M. Warsh, the Fed’s new chairman, has made stern pledges to curtail inflation. But he, like his predecessor, will also be weighing how tightening monetary policy could harm growth and the jobs market.美联储周三维持利率不变。但美联储负责政策制定的公开市场委员会12名成员中有三人持异议，投票支持加息，这一信号表明，遏制通胀的压力正在累积。新任美联储主席凯文·沃什已作出强硬承诺，誓言遏制通胀。但他与前任一样，也需要权衡紧缩货币政策可能对经济增长和就业市场造成的损害。The labor market has stabilized this year, compared with 2025. The pace of payroll growth over the past three months has been uneven but averaged 111,000 jobs a month. That stabilization, some Fed observers say, gives Mr. Warsh and other Fed leaders room to raise rates without risking too much harm.与2025年相比，劳动力市场今年已趋于稳定，过去三个月的新增就业人数虽然有所波动，但平均每月增加11.1万个就业岗位。一些美联储观察人士认为，这种稳定为沃什等美联储领导层提供了一定加息空间，无需担心造成过大伤害。Yields on long-term bonds have risen recently, as investors worry that continually elevated inflation will erode the future value of some assets. Investors have been hand-wringing about a potential A.I. bubble. But stock indexes are up this year, and corporate earnings continue to outperform expectations.由于投资者担心持续高企的通胀会侵蚀部分资产的未来价值，长期债券收益率近期有所上升。投资者一直担忧人工智能可能形成泡沫。但股票指数今年以来仍录得上涨，企业盈利持续超出预期。According to FactSet, the S&P 500’s net profit margins are on track to rise to 16 percent in the latest quarter, the highest level since FactSet started tracking the metric in 2009. Economists are asking, with a mix of wonderment and anxiety, how closely tied the A.I. boom and G.D.P. growth could become.根据FactSet的数据，标普500指数企业的净利润率预计将在最新季度升至16%，这是FactSet自2009年开始追踪该指标以来的最高水平。经济学家们既惊叹又担忧，想知道人工智能热潮与GDP增长之间究竟可能产生多大程度的关联。Where the future returns on all this A.I. spending will come from remains a key question, as large companies leverage debt and billions of dollars in cash flow to follow through on investment commitments.在大型企业纷纷举债并动用数十亿美元现金流兑现投资承诺之际，这场AI热潮下的庞大投入究竟将从何处获得回报依然是一个核心问题。Search queries, business software applications and content streams on personal devices can seem to manifest with virtual effortlessness. But cloud computing and A.I. systems rely on a massive, energy-intensive infrastructure of chips, cables and cooling systems. And the growth of those underlying physical systems is central to the immense investment boom among businesses. Goldman Sachs estimates $765 billion in capital expenditures on artificial intelligence by the end of the year.在个人设备上进行搜索查询、使用商业软件应用和浏览内容流似乎毫不费力。但云计算和人工智能系统依赖于庞大且高度耗能的基础设施，包括芯片、电缆以及冷却系统。这些底层实体系统的发展正是企业投资热潮的核心。高盛估计，到今年年底，人工智能领域的资本支出将达到7650亿美元。Brian LeBlanc, an economist and managing director at PNC Bank, notes that business “cap-ex” averaged an impressive 10 percent growth in the first half of the year alone. Because of some statistical quirks, however, the A.I. build-out — which relies on many imported foreign components rather than domestic parts — is partially tempering measures of domestic growth, too.PNC银行经济学家兼董事总经理布莱恩·勒布朗指出，仅今年上半年，企业“资本支出”平均增长率就高达10%，令人瞩目。然而，由于一些统计特性，人工智能基础设施建设——大量依赖进口的外国部件而非国内零部件——也在一定程度上压低了国内经济增长指标。“From a G.D.P. math standpoint, a lot of the A.I.-related capital expenditure, which adds substantially to G.D.P., gets offset by the fact that we import most of what goes into the data centers,” said Jake Oubina, a managing director and deputy head of economic research at Piper Sandler, an investment firm.“从GDP核算的角度来看，大量与人工智能相关的资本支出虽然显著增加了GDP，但由于数据中心所用设备大部分靠进口，这部分增长在很大程度上又被抵消了，”派杰投资董事总经理兼经济研究副主管杰克·乌比纳表示。Federal tax refunds, which bolstered households in spring, are now mostly exhausted. And with households’ savings buffers much lower than in the recent past, “consumption will be much weaker through the rest of the year,” Mr. Wallerstein of the Clocktower Group argued.春季曾提振家庭消费的联邦退税目前大多已用完。随着家庭储蓄缓冲远低于近期水平，“今年剩余时间消费将大幅走弱，”Clocktower Group的沃勒斯坦分析道。“Yes, the A.I. boom is not 100 percent of G.D.P.,” he said. “But it is an A.I.-driven economy.”“是的，人工智能热潮并不等于GDP的全部，”他说。“但这是一个由人工智能驱动的经济。”Talmon Joseph Smiths是时报驻纽约的经济报道记者。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site