Weekly Recap: IG Bets $1.3B on Prediction Markets; Squared Financial's Offshore Operations Stall

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The week brought a mix of regulatory scrutiny, financialresults, strategic expansion and industry analysis across the retail andinstitutional trading sectors. Brokers continued to adapt to changing marketconditions while balancing growth initiatives with tighter regulatoryexpectations and shifting client behaviour.Several firms reported strong operational performancedespite currency pressures, while others pursued acquisitions, licensing andpotential public listings. At the same time, Finance Magnates examined broaderstructural trends affecting the industry, from the economics of choosing an EUjurisdiction to changing client acquisition strategies and the outlook forcommodities and alternative investment products.IG Bets on Prediction Markets with $1.3 Billion UnderdogDealIG Group agreed to acquire USprediction markets and fantasy sports operator Underdog for up to approximately$1.3 billion, making the sector a key pillar of its long-term growthstrategy. The transaction includes about $1.1 billion in upfront considerationand a further $200 million earnout linked to performance. IG expects theacquisition to morethan double its US revenue and increase monthly active customers by more thantenfold.The deal also provides the broker with a vertically integrated USinfrastructure spanning brokerage, exchange and clearing, while expanding itsoffering beyond sports into financial, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic eventcontracts. Completion is expected in late 2026 or early 2027.Squared Financial's Offshore Operations Face FreshQuestionsSquared Financial appeared to have shutdown its Seychelles-based offshore operation about six months aftersurrendering its Cyprus licence. Finance Magnates found that new clients couldno longer open accounts through the broker's website, while online reviewsincreasingly cited delayed withdrawals and an inability to contact customer support.Trustpilot also warned that it had removed fake reviews from the firm'sprofile. Former Nigeria Managing Director Temitope Ijibadejo publicly raisedconcerns over pending client withdrawals and called for an investigation bylocal authorities. Although the Seychelles licence remains active, the brokerdid not respond to Finance Magnates' requests for comment before publication.Cyprus Tax Advantage May Not Pay Until Brokers ReachScaleFinance Magnates analysis found that Cyprus'reduced corporate tax advantage over Poland has narrowed the financial casefor establishing a brokerage there. Following Cyprus' tax increase to 15% atthe start of 2026, FM Intelligence modelling suggested a broker may need around€3 million in annual pre-tax profit before lower taxation offsets higheroperating costs.The study concluded that staffing, operating expenses andbusiness location often outweigh tax savings for smaller firms. While Cyprusretains advantages as a cross-border financial hub, Poland continues to benefitfrom lower labour costs, growing domestic investor participation and a rapidlyexpanding brokerage market.Trade Nation Sees Growth Opportunities Despite Tougher EURulesTrade Nation Portugal CEO Luis Dos Santos said stricterEuropean regulation should ultimately strengthen confidence in regulatedbrokers rather than weaken the market. Speaking to Finance Magnates, he saidthe company chose Portugal for regulatory stability and long-term expansionrather than lower operating costs.The broker recently secured a licence fromPortugal's CMVM after an authorisation process lasting about a year and is nowexpanding its local workforce. Dos Santos also said retail trading demandcontinues to grow across Europe despite tighter rules, while artificialintelligence is being introduced to support operations without replacingrecruitment plans as the company expands across the region.Investment Products Bring Clients to XTB but CFDs StillDrive RevenueXTB's latest financial results highlighted awidening gap between how it attracts clients and how it generates earnings.During the first half of 2026, shares, ETFs and Investment Plans accounted fornearly 83% of first transactions by new European clients, reflecting thebroker's continued push into long-term investing. However, CFDs still generatedabout 96% of gross income from financial instruments, with commodity CFDscontributing more than three-quarters of the total. The broker reported recordfinancial results, including sharply higher revenue and profit, whilecontinuing to expand its product range through equity options, Investment Plans2.0 and Cash ISA services in the UK.iFOREX Reports Higher Client Growth Despite CurrencyHeadwindsFresh from its London Stock Exchange listing, iFOREXreported strong first-halftrading despite the strengthening Israeli shekel weighing on reportedearnings. Revenue remained broadly stable year on year while new clientonboarding increased 19% and active clients rose 8%.On a constant currencybasis, adjusted EBITDA met the company's expectations, although exchange ratemovements reduced reported profitability. Management expects operating costs torise this year because of continued shekel strength. During the period, iFOREXalso applied for a UAE Category 5 licence, appointed a new chief operatingofficer to support greater AI integration and maintained a debt-free balancesheet.BlackBull Grows Revenue Ahead of Planned Public ListingBlackBull's latest New Zealand filing showed revenuegrowth alongside higher client funds as the broker continues preparationsfor a proposed dual listing in New Zealand and Australia. Revenue from itsdomestic business increased to more than NZ$41 million while client funds rosealmost 87% to nearly NZ$100 million. However, both pre-tax and net profitdeclined as operating expenses increased, including platform costs, resellerfees and marketing expenditure. Previous investor materials showedsignificantly stronger group-wide financial performance than the New Zealandentity alone, underlining the importance of the broker's internationaloperations as it advances plans to become one of the few listed global CFDbrokers.LMAX Explores Strategic Options as Valuation Reaches $5BillionLMAX Group is reportedly considering strategic options that couldvalue the company at up to $5 billion, with a Nasdaq listing emerging asthe preferred route alongside alternatives including a sale, SPAC merger orEuropean IPO. According to CoinDesk, Morgan Stanley and KBW are advising theprocess. The reported valuation would represent a substantial increase from thecompany's estimated $1 billion valuation in 2021 despite earnings growing at amuch slower pace over the period. While LMAX has reported strong trading volumegrowth, its latest publicly available financial statements still relate to2024, leaving investors waiting for updated earnings.MAS Markets Moves Closer to Full Acquisition of SolidMAS Group acquired a strategic equitystake in institutional spot FX specialist Solid, with both companiesdescribing the transaction as the first step towards a full acquisition overthe coming years. The deal reverses a relationship that began in 2022 whenSolid purchased a minority stake in what was then BidX Markets.MAS said theinvestment broadens its institutional presence beyond margin trading whilegiving Solid's clients access to its FCA-regulated infrastructure and widerproduct offering. Neither company disclosed the financial terms or the size ofthe acquired stake, although both confirmed that client relationships andservices would remain unchanged during the integration.Gold Cools While Faith-Based Investing Faces StructuralChallengesBeyond the brokerage sector, Paul Golden examined twobroader investment themes. Goldand silver retreated sharply after their early-2026 rallies, with analystssuggesting both metals remain supported over the longer term despite easingsupply pressures and changing investor sentiment. Gold continues to respond togeopolitical developments and central bank buying, particularly in China, whilesilver's outlook remains tied to industrial demand. Separately, analysis offaith-based investment funds found that despite serving a potentially vastglobal audience, the sector continues to face challenges including highercosts, inconsistent screening standards, limited passive products and mixedlong-term performance.This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.