BTC August OutlookBTCUSDT Perpetual ContractBYBIT:BTCUSDT.PsabinaGMJuly did not develop exactly as I initially expected, but one observation ended up being particularly interesting. The monthly candle closed almost exactly around the middle of its range, which opens a different set of probabilities heading into August. When a monthly candle closes near the middle of its range, the following month becomes much more balanced in terms of which side of the previous month's range gets swept first. Since July's range is relatively narrow compared to previous months, I would not be surprised to eventually see both extremes taken during August. Even so, my base case remains a one-sided sweep until price proves otherwise. Once one extreme of the previous month's range is taken, I generally reduce the probability of the opposite extreme being swept during the same month. The same idea applies to weekly candles. Unless the previous week's range is relatively small, I do not usually expect both extremes to be taken within the same week. July also came very close to printing a clean inverted hammer. Although it is not the strongest continuation candle, it leaves room for multiple scenarios rather than strongly favoring one direction. For August, I am interested in longs around the 60K area, but only if lower timeframe price action provides confirmation. That area contains several higher timeframe confluences, including the Quarterly Open. Ideally, I would like to see demand appear there without sweeping July's low, leaving July's high as the higher probability target and potentially opening the path toward higher prices. A retest of the 60K to 62K area would also create the possibility of a daily inverse head and shoulders pattern. For now, there is no reason to rush into longs. I would rather wait for a clear lower timeframe trigger than try to anticipate a reversal. At the moment, I remain short with invalidation above July's high, expecting price to respect that level before printing new H4 lower lows. This view remains aligned with the current H4 50/100/ 200 EMA bearish crossover. The first meaningful bullish signal for me remains unchanged. I would like to see a daily bullish MSB printed around the 67.3K area to let any open long run for further targets. Until then, I continue to favor the bearish higher timeframe structure while remaining open to a reversal if price begins to confirm it. Throughout August, I will also be paying close attention to one-sided sweeps on the weekly candles, H4 structure shifts and H4 50/100/200 full crossovers. If July's low is taken early in the month, July's high becomes a less probable target to revisit during the month . Conversely, if July's high is swept first, I will significantly reduce the probability of revisiting July's low during the remainder of the month, unless the overall structure changes materially.