Bitcoin’s Next Bull Cycle May Begin in October | Realized PriceBitcoinCRYPTO:BTCUSDPersianBlockchain**Bitcoin’s Next Bull Cycle May Begin in October | Realized Price** First, let me explain the structure behind this analysis. The first part of this analysis focuses on two important on-chain metrics: **Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH Realized Price)** **Long-Term Holder Realized Price (LTH Realized Price)** Let’s briefly explain what these metrics represent. **Short-Term Holder Realized Price:** This represents the average price at which short-term Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. It is mainly used to understand the cost basis of newer market participants and can often act as an important support or resistance level. **Long-Term Holder Realized Price:** This represents the average price at which long-term Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. It reflects the average cost basis of older investors who have maintained a longer-term outlook. For this analysis, I did not use any specific indicator. I simply marked these two levels with lines and compared their historical behavior across previous Bitcoin cycles. What becomes particularly interesting is the structure observed during the previous two cycles. In both cases, the **Short-Term Holder Realized Price moved below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price** before the cycle bottom was formed. After the market recovered and price broke back above this area, the next bullish cycle began. Now, look at the depth of the previous declines. In the first cycle, Bitcoin moved approximately **29% below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price**. In the second cycle, Bitcoin moved approximately **22% below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price**. If this pattern continues and the decline becomes progressively smaller, I estimate that the third cycle could potentially reach approximately **15% below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price**, which would place the potential cycle bottom somewhere around **$42,000**. However, this is only a probability based on historical structure, not a guaranteed price target. There is also an important detail that should not be overlooked: **In the current cycle, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price has not yet moved below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price.** In other words, we have not yet seen the same structure that appeared near the bottoms of the previous cycles. --- ### The Second Part: The 13-Month Structure The second part of my analysis focuses on **monthly candles**. Looking at previous cycles, approximately **13 monthly candles** elapsed from the first major red candle after the cycle top until the cycle bottom. At the moment, approximately **10 monthly candles have already closed**, leaving roughly **3 more monthly candles** according to this historical structure. But there is an important clarification: This does **not** mean that Bitcoin cannot already be at the bottom, nor does it mean that current prices are necessarily unattractive. This is simply a **fractal structure based on historical cycles**. There is no guarantee that the same pattern will repeat again. --- ### The Third Part: The Downtrend Break The third part of this analysis focuses on the current **downtrend**. Based on the structure I am tracking, when this downtrend is broken by a strong bullish candle and price closes above both the **Short-Term Holder Realized Price** and **Long-Term Holder Realized Price**, this could signal the beginning of the next bullish cycle. This is why I am watching the **breakout structure** rather than trying to predict the exact bottom. --- ### Putting Everything Together When we combine these three structures: **1. STH Realized Price vs. LTH Realized Price** **2. The 13-month historical structure** **3. The breakout of the current downtrend** we have several important pieces of evidence to monitor. However, there is one major question that remains: **With approximately three months potentially remaining in this historical structure, can the Short-Term Holder Realized Price finally move below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price?** That answer may depend heavily on the macroeconomic environment. Japan is currently dealing with rising interest rates, while in the United States, the path toward lower interest rates remains uncertain. At the same time, the geopolitical environment remains highly sensitive, and the future direction of oil prices could be strongly influenced by the situation surrounding the **Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb**. These factors need to be considered alongside the on-chain structure. But don't forget the key point. I believe **we are already in the parking garage.** And this parking garage has two lower levels: **B1 and B2.** Whether Bitcoin needs to move down to a lower level depends on whether that parking space is actually empty. Just kidding — but sometimes thinking about the market this way can help put the risk and possible scenarios into perspective. **This is not financial advice.** **Sincerely,** **Amir Ghasemi**