GE Vernova (GEV) LONG — 4H ALMA Setup (WR 80% · avg RR 3.9)GE Vernova Inc.BATS:GEVGoldfinch_song█ SETUP GEV · 4H · long only. (Context: GE Vernova — gas turbines / electrification / grid equipment — AI data-center power and grid-build beta, not a discretionary “buy the earnings beat” call.) ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/4, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (GEV 4H): Win rate 80% · profit factor 5.9 · max drawdown 7% Avg winning trade +31.9% · avg losing trade −8.2% Typical hold ~76×4H bars on winners — power/grid mean-reversion grid on the 4H Averaging template · 69-trade sample ═ █ WHY NOW Fresh 4H ALMA long on the 28 Jul 17:30 UTC bar ~$944.6 — two concurrent Averaging templates armed on the same bar close (each lot 1 of 4). Path into the fill: pre-print close ~$1,079 (21 Jul) → Q2 session ~−8.7% (22 Jul) → continued post-print drift, with the 28 Jul cash session still soft (~−6% class toward the mid-$930s). Month tape ~$1,102 → ~$937 (~−15%). Bar-close ENTRY into that wash — same process that closed the prior Jun cycle at target, not revenge size into the EPS miss. Hard stop −10% from fill ~$850. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in stays 25% per bar, up to 4 adds per template, if lower bars qualify. ═ █ MACRO Sector: GEV = gas turbines, electrification kit, and grid hardware — AI / data-center power demand, utility transmission buildout, and gas-equipment backlog drive the beta more than a single index print. Tape (16 Jun – 28 Jul): Q2 print 22 Jul — orders ~$24.2B (organic +88%), backlog ~$176B, FCF ~$5.1B, Power orders ~+134% org., Electrification ~+66%, data-center orders >$5B YTD (>2× 2025), FY26 revenue guide lifted to ~$45.5–46.5B and FCF guide to ~$11.5–12.5B. Same session: adj. EPS ~$2.47 vs street ~$3.04–3.18, Wind orders ~−40% org. with an EBITDA loss ~$275M, tariff cost guide still ~$100–200M FY26. Post-print Street split (23 Jul): MS / Guggenheim raised PTs vs Citi cut to Neutral. Mid-window (16 Jun): Venezuela / Corpoelec grid MoU — drafts still in play on the print call. Execution is 4H ALMA Averaging on the fill bar — not an EPS, PT, or Venezuela-contract forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - Tester skew: 80% WR · PF 5.9 · avg win +31.9% vs avg loss −8.2% (avg RR 3.9) — fat right tail vs a bounded −10% ALMA stop path - Fresh first-lot ENTRY on the 28 Jul 4H close ~$944.6 after the post-earnings slide (~−15% over ~30d; earnings day ~−8.7%) — process re-arm into the wash, not a discretionary “buy the miss” - Two concurrent templates arm on the same bar — same Averaging family, same fill — early pyramid depth without waiting for a second discretionary add - Q2 demand stack still loud: backlog ~$176B · gas slots ~116 GW (YE26 target ≥125) · DC orders >$5B YTD — structural AI-power / grid backdrop for the name, not the entry trigger - Fill sits in the mid-$940s after the print derating — same neighborhood that framed the prior Jun mean-reversion cycle (that ladder later tagged TP in the $1,100s) — location context only - Post-print Street not one-way: MS / Guggenheim raised PTs 23 Jul while the tape kept selling — split backdrop, not a target chase Negative factors - Adj. EPS miss (~$2.47 vs ~$3.04–3.18) already forced ~−8.7% on 22 Jul; 28 Jul session still weak (~−6% class) — headline / multiple risk can extend - Wind: orders −40% org. · EBITDA loss ~$275M (H1 loss ~$657M class) — segment drag can reprice the name even when Power / Electrification orders are loud - Tariff headwind still ~$100–200M FY26; margin guide unchanged while backlog runs ahead of profit conversion — “priced for perfection” sensitivity - Street split includes Citi PT cut / Neutral (23 Jul) — not a clean post-print consensus bid - Watchlist snapshot board had no fresh GEV Metric / ALMA / VWAP / SMC row in the late-Jul COMBINED packs — no Cur-vs-Avg or Active VWAP levels to lean on in this idea (honest gap) - First lots only (1 of 4 on each template) — no averaged cushion yet if the 4H bar fails and lower adds qualify or the −10% path prints first - Typical hold ~76×4H bars is long vs earnings-half-life — Wind / tariff / next print headlines can reprice before the sample hold completes Takeaway: the 4H ALMA strategy and strong WR/PF skew support a disciplined first-lot re-arm into a fundamentals>tape wash near ~$945 (record orders/backlog/FCF raise vs EPS miss and Wind drag), but the ~−15% month derating, soft 28 Jul session, tariff/margin lag, missing snapshot board, and thin day-1 cushion frame a repair grind — not a clean guidance reclaim or Street-PT chase; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: follow 4H ALMA Averaging on both templates · hold/add on qualifying bars while the mid-$930–950 pocket cushions · mean-revert toward the ~$1,000–1,080 pre-print / prior-cycle shelves if Power/Electrification tape stabilizes without a fresh gap through the stop. Bear case: Wind/tariff/margin headline gap · lose the mid-$940s pocket · template posts −10% toward ~$850 from this fill · wait for the next bar-close arm. Chart: GEV 4H — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.