Fundamental Market Analysis for July 30, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004Event to watch today: 15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product EURUSD: Business activity in the eurozone returned to growth in July for the first time in four months, but this is not yet sufficient to produce a sustained improvement in the euro’s outlook. The regional economy previously contracted, banks are tightening lending conditions, and high energy costs are weighing on consumption and corporate earnings. This environment limits the single currency’s ability to withstand demand for the US dollar. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range, although three committee members voted for an increase. This highlights persistent inflation risks and supports US Treasury yields. While the Federal Reserve Chair did not provide a clear signal of imminent tightening, the market received no reason to expect rapid monetary easing, allowing the dollar to retain its advantage during the current session. Rising geopolitical tensions are also increasing demand for US dollar liquidity. This factor is particularly important for the euro because of the region’s dependence on imported energy. As a result, stronger business activity is easing some pressure but does not outweigh the divergence in economic resilience and the current dollar momentum. The baseline scenario therefore allows for a decline in EURUSD. Trading idea: SELL 1.1455, SL 1.14850, TP 1.13850