AUD/USD Loses Momentum and May See CorrectionAUD/USDOANDA:AUDUSDNouzTraderAUD/USD AUDUSD lost its upward momentum after a modest bounce to the 0.6965 area during Thursday's Asian trading session. The emergence of US Dollar (USD) buying, capitalizing on low prices (buying on dips), quickly pushed the spot price back to the mid-0.6900s. However, the Aussie was still able to hold slightly above the two-week low touched yesterday. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Australian Domestic Factors: Weak CPI Cools RBA Expectations Structural pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD) came from the release of the latest domestic macro data, which were downbeat: - Surprise Downward Australian CPI: The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released last Wednesday came in weaker than market expectations. - RBA Expectations Ease: This easing of domestic consumer inflation pressures directly dampened speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would soon execute a further interest rate hike in the near future. ✅ Transatlantic Factors: USD Safe-Haven Defense & Oil Inflation Risk The US dollar (USD) quickly regained its footing following the Fed's FOMC press conference: - Energy & Interest Rate Inflation Risks in 2026: The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran crisis and volatility in upstream crude oil prices are keeping concerns of exogenous inflation alive. This situation reinforces market confidence that the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh will continue to tighten for the remainder of 2026. - Safe-Haven Capital Flows: The combination of the Fed's higher-for-longer outlook and the greenback's status as a primary safe haven asset continues to fuel demand for the US dollar on every dip. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Technical Analysis Technically, AUD/USD's repeated failure to break through the supply barrier, along with indicator confirmation, supports a bearish setup: - Breakdown Confirmation: A clean break below the overnight swing lows of 0.6925 and 0.6900 will trigger a further selling wave towards the June monthly target of 0.6865, with potential acceleration to the psychological level of 0.6800. - Upper Rebound Limit: As long as AUD/USD remains below 0.6974, any daily gains are viewed purely as corrective gains (relief rallies) vulnerable to further selling.