艾莎, ANA SWANSON2026年7月30日在泰国玛阳蓬的一间工厂里，工人正在检查手电筒。 Lauren DeCicca for The New York TimesOn a dusty piece of land south of Bangkok, a flashlight factory stands full of promise. Workers hunch over tables gluing components. But only half the land has been built. Parts of the factory stand empty, waiting for future production lines.在曼谷南部一片尘土飞扬的土地上，坐落着一座承载了无限希望的手电筒工厂。工人们伏在工作台前，粘接各种零部件。但工厂所在土地只有一半完成了建设，另一半仍空着，等待未来增设生产线。The factory is owned by a Chinese manufacturer that makes flashlights for American customers. When President Trump’s tariffs on China hit 145 percent last year, companies embarked on a panicked search for cheaper alternatives in countries like Vietnam and Thailand, including this facility.这座工厂属于一家专门为美国客户生产手电筒的中国制造商。去年特朗普政府把对华关税提高到145%后，大批企业惊慌失措地在越南、泰国等地寻找更便宜的替代生产基地，这座工厂就是在那股浪潮中建立起来的。But since then, U.S. tariffs on China have come down sharply, leaving the leaders of some of those same companies with second thoughts.但此后，美国对中国商品的关税大幅下降，让其中一些企业的负责人开始重新考虑当初的决定。“Have we pulled back to China? Yes, we have,” said Phil Laster, the chief operations officer of Alliance Consumer Group, a Texas-based company that sells flashlights made in the Thai factory to U.S. customers. Mr. Laster had encouraged the Chinese manufacturer, Ningbo Bright Electric, to build a factory outside China to make his products, but he is hitting the brakes on the strategy now that U.S. duties on Chinese goods are more comparable to those on products from Thailand.“我们有没有把订单转回中国？是的，我们有，”菲尔·拉斯特说道。他是总部位于得克萨斯州的Alliance Consumer Group(ACG)的首席运营官，该公司把那家泰国工厂生产的手电筒销往美国市场。拉斯特曾鼓励中国制造商宁波步来特电器有限公司在海外建厂生产他的产品，但他现在正对这一策略踩刹车，因为美国对中国商品的关税已与对泰国产品的关税相差无几。One of the most surprising outcomes from a whiplash year of tariffs may be that China has emerged in a position of relative strength, with significantly lower tariffs than last year. The Trump administration last week imposed a new tariff rate on Chinese exports of 12.5 percent, similar to rates for dozens of other countries, as it works to resurrect the tariffs struck down in February by the Supreme Court.关税动荡的一年中，最令人意外的结果之一可能是：中国反而处于相对强势的地位，其面临的关税远低于去年。上周，特朗普政府对中国出口商品征收了12.5%的新关税税率，与数十个其他国家的税率相似，这是为了恢复今年2月被最高法院驳回的关税措施。Chinese exports are still subject to other duties, including from Mr. Trump’s first term, and more tariffs could be on the way. But many industry executives and analysts speculate that the Trump administration will keep future tariffs on China relatively restrained to try to stabilize a rocky relationship.当然，中国商品仍需缴纳其他关税，包括特朗普第一任期留下来的税项，而且未来还可能有新的关税出台。但不少行业高管和分析人士猜测，特朗普政府今后会尽量把对华关税维持在相对克制的水平，以稳定目前并不牢固的中美关系。美国关税政策的摇摆导致中国与东南亚许多商品的税率趋同，使这家位于泰国的中资工厂陷入进退两难的境地。The overall U.S. weighted tariff rate on Chinese goods is slightly above 23 percent, according to an analysis by Guojin Securities, a Chinese financial firm. And for some products, the tariff rate for China is identical to the rate on exports from Southeast Asian countries, where many companies have moved their supply chains.根据中国金融机构国金证券的分析，美国目前对中国商品征收的整体加权平均关税税率略高于23%。而对某些产品来说，中国面临的税率已经与东南亚国家——许多企业近年来将供应链转移至这里——的税率完全相同。This has created a conundrum for executives like Mr. Laster, who would prefer to diversify his supply chain. But making flashlights in Thailand costs as much as 15 percent more than it does in China, as a result of higher costs for materials and transport. Mr. Laster is also under pressure from Chinese competitors that are selling flashlights on Amazon for less than it costs ACG to ship its products to the United States.这让像拉斯特这样的企业高管陷入两难。他们希望实现供应链多元化，但在泰国生产手电筒的成本比中国高出约15%，主要因为原材料和运输费用更高。同时，他还面临来自中国竞争对手的压力，这些企业在亚马逊上销售手电筒的价格甚至低于ACG把产品运到美国的运输成本。“We don’t want to go back to China, but at the same time, we’ve got a business to run,” he said.“我们并不想回到中国，但与此同时，公司总得经营下去，”他说。Mr. Trump has long blamed China for undercutting American competitors and has imposed punishing tariffs in an attempt to force manufacturers back to U.S. shores. In his first term, he waged a trade war on China, imposing tariffs on about two-thirds of its exports beginning in 2018. In his second term, China was his first target. He raised duties on Chinese exports to triple-digit levels, before China responded by cutting off the supply of critical minerals, forcing him to back down.长期以来，特朗普一直指责中国通过低价竞争打击美国竞争对手，并试图通过惩罚性关税迫使制造业回流美国。他在第一任期内对中国发动了贸易战，自2018年起对约三分之二的中国出口商品加征关税。第二任期开始后，中国又成为他的首个目标。他把对华关税提高到三位数，在中国以切断关键矿产供应作为回应后，他才被迫让步。宁波步来特电器在玛阳蓬的工厂为包括Husky在内的美国品牌生产手电筒及其他实用照明灯具。泰国工厂内，一台将电子元件安装到印刷电路板上的机器。Amid all that uncertainty, many executives found factories outside China. As a result, U.S. goods imports from China have plummeted since peaking in 2018. Chinese imports fell by nearly a third last year, while goods from Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan surged.在这些不确定性中，许多企业开始寻找中国以外的工厂。因此，自2018年达到峰值以来，美国自中国进口商品大幅下降。去年，美国自中国进口减少了近三分之一，而来自墨西哥、越南和台湾的进口则显著增加。But Mary E. Lovely, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that China had a large cost advantage, and that if its ultimate tariff differential with other countries ended up small, that shift of business out of China could reverse.但彼得森国际经济研究所的经济学家玛丽·洛夫利表示，中国拥有巨大的成本优势，如果与其他国家的最终关税差足够小，那么此前企业撤离中国的趋势很可能会逆转。“If tariffs on China settle near those on alternative locations, we expect to see some companies returning to their Chinese suppliers,” Ms. Lovely said.“如果对华关税稳定在与其他替代生产地相近的水平，我们预计一些企业将重新用回中国的供应商，”洛夫利说。Torch City手电筒之城To see why it has been so hard for companies to break with China, look no farther than “Torch City.” Similar to the many Chinese cities that have specialized in buttons or wedding dresses, Xidian, a low-lying industrial town near the East China Sea, produces about 60 percent of the world’s flashlights, according to Chinese state media.要想知道为什么企业如此难以摆脱中国，只需要看看“手电筒之城”。据中国官方媒体报道，就像中国许多专门生产纽扣、婚纱的城市一样，位于东海沿岸、地势低平的工业城镇西店生产了全球约60%的手电筒。The town is packed with hundreds of manufacturers that pump out LED bulbs, circuit boards and switches at competitive prices. And Xidian is near some of the world’s biggest ports and low-cost shipping lanes that ferry vast quantities of goods across the Pacific to American shoppers.这个小镇聚集了数百家制造商，以具有竞争力的价格生产LED灯泡、电路板和开关。而且，西店靠近一些世界最大的港口和低成本航运线路，能将大量货物运过太平洋，送达美国消费者手中。“China keeps doing really well because they just have the scale to produce things that much cheaper,” said Deborah Elms, who is head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore.“中国产品一直表现得这么有竞争力，是因为它拥有足够大的规模，可以把生产成本压得更低，”新加坡韩礼士基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说。“Economic logic is going to drive you to have a very large share of manufacturing in China,” she added.“经济规律最终会推动制造业的大部分仍然留在中国，”她补充道。ACG的首席运营官菲尔·拉斯特在中国宁波的公司展厅内。叶兴村——一个被新建住宅区和各类工业生产设施环绕的农业村庄，ACG的供应商宁波步来特电器的工厂就在这里。ACG, which is based near Fort Worth and has about 300 employees in North America, owns five brands that make flashlights, headlamps and lanterns, as well as products like knives, power banks and hand warmers. Its production had been heavily concentrated around Xidian.ACG总部位于沃斯堡附近，在北美有约300名员工，旗下拥有五个品牌，生产手电筒、头灯、提灯以及刀具、充电宝和暖手宝等产品。过去，它的大部分生产都集中在西店镇周边。But the pandemic and its effect on snarling supply chains exposed the risks of being too dependent on any one location. When Mr. Laster joined ACG in 2023, he started talking to ACG’s suppliers to see if they were willing to invest outside China, and he began researching new factories in Asia, Mexico and Eastern Europe.但新冠疫情及其导致的供应链混乱让企业意识到过度依赖单一地点的风险。2023年拉斯特加入ACG后，开始与供应商商讨是否愿意去海外投资建厂，同时也在考察亚洲、墨西哥和东欧的新工厂。Over 18 months, the company poured millions of dollars into buying equipment and certifying new factories in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. But by October, the United States and China had reached an agreement, and Mr. Trump dropped the tariffs by another 10 percentage points.在18个月里，公司投入了数百万美元采购设备，并完成泰国、越南和柬埔寨新工厂的认证工作。但到了10月，美中达成协议，特朗普将关税又降低了10个百分点。Many Chinese exports were subject to extra duties from Mr. Trump’s first term, but other products ended up with tariffs that were on a par with those on goods from Southeast Asia. Flashlights, for example, faced a 20 percent duty coming out of China and a 19 percent duty coming out of Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.虽然许多中国商品仍要承担特朗普第一任期留下的额外关税，但另一些产品的税率已经与东南亚国家基本持平。例如，手电筒从中国出口美国需缴纳20%的关税，而从越南、泰国和柬埔寨出口则为19%。据中国官方媒体报道，中国的“手电筒之城”西店镇生产了全球约60%的手电筒，这里云集了数百家专业制造商。中国东部生产的电筒铝制外壳。And Mr. Laster said that, even before tariffs were applied, costs were 12 to 15 percent higher leaving Southeast Asian ports than Chinese ones because the region’s supply chains weren’t as developed.拉斯特表示，即使不考虑关税因素，从东南亚港口出口产品的成本就比中国高出12%至15%，因为当地供应链远没有中国成熟。Semiconductors and aluminum used in the products, for example, had to be imported into Thailand from China and South Korea. Southeast Asia tended to have more complicated bureaucracy and worse infrastructure, making it more difficult to get goods to port. And Chinese companies often had access to subsidies and low-cost loans.例如，产品所需的半导体和铝材仍需从中国和韩国进口到泰国。东南亚国家的行政手续通常更加繁琐，基础设施也相对落后，货物运往港口更加困难。而中国企业往往还能获得政府补贴和低成本贷款。By 2025, ACG had the capacity to manufacture more than three-quarters of its products outside China, but two-thirds were still made there.到2025年，ACG已有能力把超过四分之三的产品放在中国以外生产，但实际上，仍有三分之二的产品是在中国制造的。North American brands have shifted more of their sourcing back to China in recent months as fuel shortages from the war with Iran further strained factories in countries like Vietnam, said Sebastien Breteau, the founder of Qima, which audits supply chains for thousands of companies, including Costco, Amazon and Ralph Lauren.为Costco、亚马逊、拉夫劳伦等数千家公司提供供应链审核服务的启迈创始人塞巴斯蒂安·布雷托表示，近几个月来，由于伊朗战争引发的燃料短缺进一步冲击越南等国的工厂，不少北美品牌重新把更多采购订单转回中国。宁波步来特电器位于中国东部工厂的一条生产线。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times中国工人正在组装ACG销售的一款超薄口袋手电筒。“As soon as you have a little stress, you find that because all those factories have no more fuel to power their factories, companies rush back to China,” Mr. Breteau said.“一旦出现一点压力，你就会发现，由于这些工厂没有燃料来维持生产，企业就会涌回中国，”布雷托说。“Now that companies have been manufacturing elsewhere, they see the massive benefit of manufacturing in China, even with the risk of having all their supply-chain eggs in one basket,” said Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors.“现在，企业在其他地方生产后，看到了在中国生产的巨大好处，即使这存在把所有供应链鸡蛋放在一个篮子里的风险，”APAC顾问公司首席执行官史蒂夫·奥肯说。In an interview in June, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said that he had heard some companies speculate about moving business back to China, but that doing so would be a mistake.美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在6月接受采访时表示，他听说一些公司考虑将业务迁回中国，但这样做将是一个错误。While the United States is aiming for stability with China, it was only a year ago that the countries had extremely high tariffs on each other, Mr. Greer said.格里尔说，尽管美国正努力与中国保持关系稳定，但就在一年前，两国之间仍互征极高关税。“I think overall people understand the direction of travel,” he said. “They understand the high-risk nature of being super reliant on China.”“我认为，总体而言，人们都明白大方向，”他说。“他们明白过度依赖中国的高风险性质。”宁波步来特电器的子公司Bright Illumination于2024年在泰国投产，它在当地雇佣了约100名员工。 Lauren DeCicca for The New York Times玛阳蓬一座建设中的中资工厂。The Deciding Factor决定性因素The question now is where U.S. tariffs on China will end up.现在的问题是，美国最终会把对华关税定在什么水平。The administration is expected to issue more tariffs in the coming weeks, through a trade investigation into the policies that governments use to build up their manufacturing sectors, like industrial subsidies.美国将在未来几周内对各国用于扶持制造业（如产业补贴）的贸易政策进行调查，预计政府在调查结束后将出台更多关税措施。With its surging exports and an annual trade surplus that tops a trillion dollars, China seems like a natural target. But some analysts said the administration might be reluctant to increase overall tariffs on China beyond where they were late last year, at 20 percent. Rates higher than that could be seen by the Chinese as violating their trade truce, and prompt retaliation.鉴于中国出口激增、年贸易顺差超过万亿美元，它似乎是理所当然的打击目标。但一些分析人士认为，政府可能不愿意把中国的整体关税提高到高于去年底20%的水平。更高的税率可能会被中国视为违反了双方达成的贸易休战协议，并采取报复措施。Ms. Elms said that “if you listen to Chinese interpretations of the ceiling, for them it is quite clearly 20 percent.”埃尔姆斯表示：“如果听中国方面对于关税上限的理解，他们显然认为20%就是明确界限。”But that rate could be a problem for Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, which expect to face lower tariffs than China.但这一水平可能给泰国、越南和印度尼西亚带来问题，因为这些国家都希望自己的关税低于中国。“The assumption that everyone is making is that no one is going to go above China,” she said.“大家现在普遍的假设是，没有哪个国家的税率会高于中国，”她说。Still, with Mr. Trump frequently altering tariffs, and longer-term tensions running high, many companies may not rule out the possibility of higher tariffs on China不过，由于特朗普频繁调整关税，加上中长期紧张关系依然存在，许多企业可能不会排除对华关税进一步提高的可能性。At the Thailand factory, which is owned by Ningbo Bright Electric and makes products for ACG as well as other companies, many of the components used to make the flashlights are Chinese, as is the equipment.在宁波步来特电器旗下同时为ACG及其他企业代工的泰国工厂里，用于制造手电筒的许多零部件以及生产设备都来自中国。宁波步来特电器在泰国工厂的经理潘丹峰（音）。宁波步来特电器在玛阳蓬工厂里的产品包装材料。Pan Danfeng, a factory manager who moved here from China, said business was easier at home, where suppliers are all around the corner. But he believed that, over time, more production would shift to Thailand, reducing these inconveniences.从中国调到这里工作的工厂经理潘丹峰（音）说，在中国做生意更容易，因为供应商都近在咫尺。但他相信，随着时间推移，越来越多的生产会转移到泰国，这些不便将逐渐减少。For now, Mr. Laster is still sending some shipments to his Southeast Asian factories to try to maintain that supply chain, despite the higher costs. But the company’s upstream investments in moving certain components outside China, like lithium-ion batteries and printed circuit boards, are at risk of returning to China, he said.目前，拉斯特仍在继续向东南亚工厂安排部分订单，希望维持这条供应链，尽管成本更高。但他说，公司此前投资将锂离子电池、印刷电路板等上游零部件迁出中国，如今又面临回流中国的风险。“If we can make the numbers make sense, then absolutely we want to invest in other places,” he said. But he added, “We can’t just continue to throw away money.”“如果成本效益上可行，我们当然愿意继续投资其他国家，”他说。“但我们不能一直白白往里扔钱。”艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻，常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。