ALICIA P.Q. WITTMEYER2026年7月30日法国吉伦特省，摄于昨日。 Ed Jones/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesI’m writing this on another sweltering 33-degree day in London; at this point, they’ve almost started to feel routine. We’re watching wildfires consume hundreds of thousands of hectares across France and Spain. This year’s fire season is already breaking records, and it’s not over yet.我在伦敦又一个 33 度的闷热天气里写下这些文字。如今这种天气几乎已经成了家常便饭。我们眼看着野火在法国和西班牙肆虐，吞噬数十万公顷的土地。今年的野火季已经打破了多项纪录，而且一切还未结束。Europe has had a rough summer. A season that not so long ago was associated with holidays and relaxation doesn’t feel quite the same when thousands of excess deaths are being attributed to heat. Today, my colleagues Mark Landler, our Paris bureau chief, who’s been covering the fires in France, and Chico Harlan, our global climate correspondent, write about whether we’re witnessing a moment of reckoning for the continent and climate change.欧洲度过了一个艰难的夏天。不久前，这个季节还与假期和休闲联系在一起，但当数以千计的超额死亡被归咎于高温时，这种感觉已大不相同。今天，我的同事——一直报道法国野火的巴黎分社社长马克·兰德勒、全球气候通讯记者奇科·哈兰——将撰文探讨我们是否正在见证欧洲大陆和气候变化的一个清算时刻。A very bad summer一个非常糟糕的夏天By Mark Landler and Chico Harlan作者：马克·兰德勒、奇科·哈兰Ravenous fires. Searing heat waves. Freakish storms. The summer of 2026 has already shattered meteorological records in several European countries. On a continent that has weathered centuries of upheaval — ruinous wars, deadly pandemics — it’s the weather that now has Europe feeling close to a breaking point.肆虐的野火。灼人的热浪。反常的暴风雨。2026年的夏天已经打破了欧洲多个国家的气象纪录。欧洲大陆经历了几个世纪的动荡——毁灭性战争、致命大流行病——如今却是天气让它感觉快要到达崩溃边缘。It has displaced more than 300,000 people in France and Spain, where the largest fires in those countries’ modern histories have led to their largest peacetime evacuations. It has left millions desperate for relief from temperatures that routinely soar above 40 degrees Celsius.天气异常导致法国和西班牙超过30万人流离失所，两国现代史上最大规模的野火引发了和平时期最大规模的人员撤离。气温通常飙升至40摄氏度以上，数以百万计的民众迫切期盼着酷暑能够有所缓解。It has forced the cancellation of concerts and festivals, curtailed the final stage of the Tour de France, and closed the Louvre Museum and the Eiffel Tower early. It has brought wildfires to the Scottish Highlands. And it has caused at least 10,000 heat-related deaths across Europe in June alone — a number that may turn out to be an undercount.高温迫使音乐会和节日庆典取消、缩短了环法自行车赛的最后赛段、导致卢浮宫和埃菲尔铁塔提前关闭。它还引发了苏格兰高地的山火。仅在6月，欧洲就记录了至少1万例与高温相关的死亡，而这个数字可能还被低估了。The most frightening aspect of Europe’s terrible summer? Scientists say it’s just the beginning.欧洲这个可怕夏天最令人恐惧的地方是什么？科学家说，这仅仅是个开始。“It will inevitably get worse,” said Johan Rockström, a Swedish scientist who is a director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “It will get worse and worse and worse, to the point where, I’m afraid, we’ll be passing the limits of adaptation.”“情况不可避免地会变得更糟，”德国波茨坦气候影响研究所所长、瑞典科学家约翰·罗克斯特伦说。“情况会越来越糟，越来越糟，恐怕会达到我们突破人类适应极限的地步。” The fastest-warming continent变暖最快的大陆Europe is not alone, of course. Heat waves gripped Australia and Japan this year. Floods devastated Kenya and Angola. A snowstorm paralyzed the Eastern United States. Developing countries in the Southern Hemisphere are still more vulnerable than wealthy European ones to the effects of a changing climate.当然，并非只有欧洲如此。今年，热浪也席卷了澳大利亚和日本。洪水摧毁了肯尼亚和安哥拉。一场暴风雪让美国东部陷入瘫痪。面对不断变化的气候所带来的影响，南半球的发展中国家仍然比富裕的欧洲国家更加脆弱。Yet no other continent has warmed as rapidly as Europe, which has been heating up at nearly twice the global average since the mid-1990s.然而，没有哪个大陆变暖的速度能与欧洲相提并论，自20世纪90年代中期以来，欧洲的变暖速度几乎是全球平均水平的两倍。Europe’s status as the fastest-warming continent is a consequence of both changing weather patterns and its proximity to the Arctic, where reduced snow and ice lead to more dark surfaces that absorb heat.欧洲成为变暖速度最快的大陆既源于天气模式的变化，也与其靠近北极的地理位置有关。北极地区冰雪减少，导致更多吸收热量的深色地表暴露出来。The continent is more than 1.6 degrees Celsius warmer than it was three decades ago, and the rise in temperature is swift enough to be noticeable over a single generation. By the start of this week, France had recorded 53 heat waves since 1947; 28 of them occurred in the last 15 years.欧洲大陆的气温比30年前升高了1.6摄氏度以上，而且气温上升的速度之快，足以在一代人的时间里被明显察觉。截至本周初，法国自1947年以来录得53次热浪，其中28次发生在过去15年间。Bordeaux, which is currently being threatened by wildfire, never experienced a day with temperatures at or above 39 degrees Celsius between 1921 and 2000, according to Météo-France, the national climate and weather service. This summer, though, it has happened eight times, and the season is not even half over.据法国国家气候和气象局的数据，1921年至2000年间，目前正受到野火威胁的波尔多从未经历过气温达到或超过39摄氏度的日子。但在今年夏天，这种情况已经发生了八次，而且夏天还没过完一半。While it is still cooler than other parts of the world, Europe is less able to cope with heat. Its buildings often lack air-conditioning and were built to retain heat. And the homogeneity of the trees on its hillsides and coastal plains makes them dangerously flammable.尽管欧洲仍比世界上其他一些地区凉爽，但其应对高温的能力却较弱。这里的建筑往往缺乏空调，且在建造时就设计为保温结构。此外，山坡和沿海平原上树木种类的单一性使其极易引发火灾。All this has forced Europeans to confront, more starkly than others, the harsh realities of a changed climate. But whether this leads to drastic new measures — either to mitigate the effects of a warmer climate or to adapt to them — is another question.所有这一切迫使欧洲人比其他地区的人们更需要直面气候变化的严峻现实。但是，这是否会导致采取激进的新措施——无论是为了减轻气候变暖的影响还是为了适应这一变化——则是另一个问题。希腊莱斯博斯岛上，一处村庄附近发生了一场山火。 Elias Marcou/ReutersGreat urgency — and yet情况极其紧迫，然而——In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez declared a “climate emergency,” which he said would necessitate a state pact to “attack the root of the problem in a structural way.” In France, President Emmanuel Macron vowed to replant the vast pine forests that were burned in the Gironde region over the last week with different species of trees that are better suited to a dry, hot climate.在西班牙，首相佩德罗·桑切斯宣布进入“气候紧急状态”，他表示这将需要达成一项国家协议，以便“从结构上根治这个问题”。在法国，总统马克龙承诺，将在吉伦特地区重新种植更适应干热气候的树种，这里广阔的松树林在过去一周被大火焚毁。“The situation we’re in today is the most difficult we’ve ever recorded, the most difficult since World War II,” Macron said.“我们今天所处的局势是有纪录以来最艰难的，是自二战以来最严峻的，”马克龙说。But for all the urgency, Europe’s commitment to reducing carbon dioxide emissions is in danger of being watered down. This month, the European Union proposed to adjust rules so that some industries could pollute at slightly higher levels, further into the future.然而，尽管形势紧迫，欧洲减少二氧化碳排放的承诺却面临被削弱的危险。本月，欧盟提议调整规则，允许某些行业在未来更长的时间内将污染排放水平略微提高。“Net zero” policies, which aim to balance the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere with that removed, have become targets for critics, particularly those on the right, who condemn them as a luxury that Europe can’t afford during a period of weak economic growth and energy insecurity.旨在平衡大气中温室气体排放量与清除量的“净零”政策已经成为批评者的靶子，尤其来自右翼人士。他们谴责这些政策是欧洲在经济增长疲软、能源安全面临挑战的时期无法承担的奢侈之举。And no matter what Europe does, the global trajectory of climate change depends on China and the U.S. — whose president has called climate change a “con job” — as well as on energy-hungry developing countries.而且，无论欧洲采取什么行动，气候变化的全球轨迹都取决于中国和美国——美国总统曾称气候变化是“骗局”——以及能源需求量巨大的发展中国家。The planet is already on course to miss the central target of the Paris Agreement of 2015: to hold global warming well below two degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial levels. France’s weather and climate service has said that, by 2050, heat waves could be five times more frequent.地球已经注定无法实现 2015年《巴黎协定》的核心目标：将全球平均气温较工业化前水平的升幅控制在2摄氏度以内。法国的气象和气候服务部门表示，到2050年，热浪的发生频率可能会是现在的五倍。The past few months have been the summer that broke Europe. But they could, in retrospect, come to seem tame.过去的几个月是令欧洲不堪重负的夏天。但如果在未来回想起来，它们或许还算温和。The latest: Wildfires slowed near Bordeaux and Madrid, but winds are high and temperatures are rising. Spain’s prime minister called the next 12 hours “decisive.”最新消息：波尔多和马德里附近的野火势头有所减弱，但目前风力依然很强劲，且气温正在上升。西班牙首相称接下来的12小时具有“决定性”意义。本文节译自《纽约时报》全球新闻通讯The World。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。