The Fed held, but the message was not dovishEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDPsyduckTraderStay Calm and Float 🗣️ Crowd Quack The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, which initially looked like a reason to sell the dollar. But the details told a different story. 👀 The decision passed by a 9–3 vote, with three FOMC members preferring a 25-basis-point rate hike. Chair Kevin Warsh also maintained a firm commitment to the 2% inflation target and avoided giving the market clear forward guidance. The rate stayed still, but the discussion inside the Fed shifted in a more hawkish direction. 🦅 🌊 What stirred the pond The market received a mixed message: ⏸️ No immediate rate hike 🦅 Three votes in favor of tighter policy 🔥 Persistent inflation concerns 🌫️ No clear signal about the next meeting For EURUSD, this creates a mildly bearish fundamental bias. Expectations of higher US rates can support Treasury yields and the dollar while putting pressure on the euro. 💵📉 However, the first move after an FOMC announcement is often driven by positioning and emotion. A sharp EURUSD drop alone is not enough to confirm a sustainable bearish trend. 📊 Footprints on the Chart The post-Fed range is now the key reference. 🔻 If EURUSD remains below that range, forms a lower high and rejects a retest from underneath, the market would confirm that traders accepted the decision as dollar-positive. This would support bearish continuation toward the next visible support zones. 🔺 If the pair quickly recovers and holds above the post-Fed range, the initial dollar spike may have been only a headline reaction. In that case, trapped sellers could fuel a corrective EURUSD recovery. 🦆 Duck’s Plan 📉 Bearish scenario: wait for a confirmed break below the post-Fed low, followed by a weak retest or another rejection from resistance. 📈 Bullish alternative: consider recovery only if EURUSD reclaims the post-Fed range and builds structure above it. ❌ Invalidation: the bearish idea loses strength if the pair returns above the news range and holds there. ⚠️ Risk: avoid chasing the first volatile candle. The next important event is the US PCE inflation report, which may reinforce or challenge the Fed’s hawkish message. 🦆 The rate stayed still, but three hawks were already paddling toward a hike. ⚠️ This publication represents a personal market scenario and is not financial advice.